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Created March 18, 2026 18:16
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Grangeville (62221) Extended Hours Profitability Analysis

Extended Hours Profitability: Grangeville (62221)

Question: Did expanding store hours pay for themselves? Store: Grangeville (62221), Pacific Northwest Analysis Period: Jan 2024 – Dec 2025 (excl. Feb 6 – Apr 12, 2025 data gap) Split Point: July 2025 (highest employee cost month)


Phase 1: Employee Costs Trend

Finding: No clear step-change. Employee costs actually decreased year-over-year.

Month 2024 2025 YoY Change
Jan $72,690 $46,730 -36%
Feb $60,589 $45,808 -24%
Mar $37,765 $45,417 +20%
Apr $61,652 $48,636 -21%
May $61,451 $51,817 -16%
Jun $54,158 $47,819 -12%
Jul $59,594 $58,726 -1%
Aug $53,688 $53,596 0%
Sep $38,630 $44,144 +14%
Oct $67,830 $47,028 -31%
Nov $56,503 $54,856 -3%
Dec $34,089 $51,887 +52%
Avg $54,887 $49,705 -9%

Within 2025, there's a modest H1→H2 increase:

  • H1 avg: $47,705/mo
  • H2 avg: $51,706/mo (+$4,001, or +8.4%)

July 2025 is the highest month ($58,726), but the increase is gradual rather than a sharp step-change. No single month signals "we added evening shifts." The pattern is more consistent with seasonal fluctuation (summer staffing) than a policy change.

Phase 2: Sales Correlation (Before Jul 2025 vs After)

Finding: Clear revenue and margin improvement in the after period.

Metric Before (avg/day) After (avg/day) Change
Total Revenue $28,870 $32,170 +11.4%
Merchandise Revenue $5,582 $6,162 +10.4%
Foodservice Revenue $1,561 $1,802 +15.5%
Fuel Revenue $21,057 $23,477 +11.5%
Total Margin $3,089 $3,461 +12.0%
Merch Margin $1,786 $1,972 +10.4%
Food Margin $859 $991 +15.4%
Transactions 1,061 1,171 +10.4%
Inside Transactions 688 740 +7.6%
Basket Size $10.32 $10.73 +4.0%

The revenue lift is broad-based — fuel, merchandise, and foodservice all grew proportionally. Inside transactions grew 7.6% (more customers coming in), while basket size also increased 4% (existing customers spending more). Both channels contributing.

Note: The "before" period spans Jan 2024 – Jun 2025 (475 days, excl. data gap) vs "after" Jul – Dec 2025 (142 days), so some of this lift may reflect normal year-over-year growth or seasonal effects.

Phase 3: Hour-of-Day Pattern Analysis

Finding: Evening/overnight hours show significant growth, especially late evening and early morning.

Full 24-Hour Comparison

Hour Before txn/day After txn/day Before $/day After $/day Rev Change
Midnight 4.8 5.4 $112 $141 +25%
1 AM 7.3 9.9 $215 $249 +16%
2 AM 5.8 6.7 $177 $149 -16%
3 AM 8.7 9.2 $234 $227 -3%
4 AM 14.5 16.0 $330 $400 +21%
5 AM 23.6 27.9 $562 $615 +9%
6 AM 28.7 34.7 $726 $810 +12%
7 AM 42.3 51.0 $1,110 $1,324 +19%
8 AM 54.4 60.7 $1,480 $1,698 +15%
9 AM 63.4 73.3 $1,763 $2,041 +16%
10 AM 74.5 81.1 $2,082 $2,273 +9%
11 AM 84.2 88.0 $2,310 $2,560 +11%
Noon 95.9 104.1 $2,462 $2,707 +10%
1 PM 84.4 92.1 $2,277 $2,581 +13%
2 PM 77.3 83.1 $2,181 $2,417 +11%
3 PM 71.1 80.4 $2,009 $2,277 +13%
4 PM 70.3 75.7 $1,996 $2,221 +11%
5 PM 62.2 65.8 $1,765 $1,967 +11%
6 PM 48.0 51.3 $1,407 $1,482 +5%
7 PM 36.7 40.5 $1,017 $1,094 +8%
8 PM 30.3 32.9 $807 $888 +10%
9 PM 27.0 29.6 $647 $675 +4%
10 PM 24.3 28.1 $525 $573 +9%
11 PM 16.5 19.2 $342 $448 +31%

Growth is broad-based across all hours. The strongest growth is at 11 PM (+31%), midnight (+25%), 4 AM (+21%), and early morning 7 AM (+19%). Daytime hours also grew 9-16%.

Evening/Overnight Merchandise Breakdown

Foodservice revenue during evening/overnight hours is effectively zero — before and after. Evening business is entirely merchandise and fuel.

Hour Merch Before ($/day) Merch After ($/day) Change
6 PM $351 $380 +8%
7 PM $279 $314 +13%
8 PM $246 $268 +9%
9 PM $247 $261 +6%
10 PM $259 $295 +14%
11 PM $193 $224 +16%
Midnight $59 $58 0%
1 AM $88 $119 +35%
2 AM $65 $74 +13%
3 AM $73 $88 +22%
4 AM $128 $151 +18%
5 AM $169 $188 +12%

Evening revenue carries merchandise margins (~32%), not the higher foodservice margins (~55%).

Phase 4: Profitability Verdict

Calculation

  1. Incremental monthly employee costs (2025 H1→H2): $51,706 − $47,705 = $4,001/month
  2. Incremental daily merch + food margin: ($1,972 + $991) − ($1,786 + $859) = $318/day
  3. Incremental monthly margin: $318 × 30.4 = $9,680/month
  4. Coverage ratio: $9,680 ÷ $4,001 = 2.42x

Verdict

The incremental margin at Grangeville comfortably exceeds any labor cost increase — the $9,700/month in added merch + foodservice margin covers the modest $4,000/month H2 labor increase at 2.4x.

However, the data doesn't clearly show an "extended hours" event.

Caveats

  1. No clear opex step-change. Employee costs in 2025 are actually lower than 2024, and the H1→H2 increase is mild. If hours were expanded, the labor cost impact was absorbed by other efficiencies.

  2. Growth is broad-based, not evening-specific. Every hour of the day grew 5-31%, suggesting general business improvement (foot traffic, pricing, mix) rather than incremental evening-only activity.

  3. Foodservice is absent from evening hours. The higher-margin foodservice category generates zero evening revenue. Evening profitability depends entirely on merchandise margins.

  4. Comparison periods are unequal. "Before" includes 475 days across 2024–early 2025; "after" is 142 days in H2 2025. Some of the lift may be seasonal (summer/fall vs full-year average).

  5. Data gap (Feb 6 – Apr 12, 2025) falls in the "before" period, reducing 66 days of data from that window.

Bottom Line

Grangeville's P&L doesn't show a clear labor cost spike tied to expanded hours. But the store is performing meaningfully better — +11% revenue, +12% margin, with noticeable evening activity growth (especially 10 PM – 1 AM). If hours were expanded, the economics work: the margin lift more than covers any added labor. The evening business is merchandise-only though — activating foodservice during evening hours could further improve the return.


Generated by Alpaca cstory-scenario skill · Extended Hours Profitability analysis · March 2026

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