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JeffSackmann/generateBattingMarcels.py

Created January 14, 2011 18:32
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Revisions

  1. JeffSackmann revised this gist Jan 15, 2011. 1 changed file with 12 additions and 15 deletions.
    27 changes: 12 additions & 15 deletions generateBattingMarcels.py
    View file
    Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
    @@ -2,7 +2,6 @@

    from createTuple import createTuple ## gist: 778481
    from writeMatrixCSV import writeMatrixCSV ## gist: 778484
    from convXdig import convXdig as cxd ## gist: 779951

    def makeBatTable(r):
    for stat in ['AB', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'SO', 'BB', 'SF', 'HP', 'CI']:
    @@ -14,22 +13,22 @@ def makeBatTable(r):
    slg = 0
    else:
    avg = float(r['H'])/float(r['AB'])
    r['AVG'] = cxd(avg, 3)
    r['AVG'] = round(avg, 3)
    slg = float(r['H']+r['D']+(2*r['T'])+(3*r['HR']))/float(r['AB'])
    r['SLG'] = cxd(slg, 3)
    r['SLG'] = round(slg, 3)
    if (r['AB']+r['BB']+r['SF']+r['HP']) == 0:
    r['OBP'] = 0
    r['OPS'] = 0
    r['wOBA'] = 0
    else:
    pa = float(r['AB']+r['BB']+r['SF']+r['HP']+r['CI'])
    obp = float(r['H']+r['BB']+r['HP']+r['CI'])/pa
    r['OBP'] = cxd(obp, 3)
    r['OBP'] = round(obp, 3)
    sing = int(r['H']) - int(r['HR']) - int(r['T']) - int(r['D'])
    num = (.72*int(r['BB'])) + (.75*int(r['HP'])) + (.9*sing) + (1.24*int(r['D'])) + (1.56*int(r['T'])) + (1.95*int(r['HR']))
    den = int(r['BB']) + int(r['AB']) + int(r['HP'])
    woba = num/den
    r['wOBA'] = cxd(woba, 3)
    r['wOBA'] = round(woba, 3)
    return r

    def marcelBattingSeason(yr):
    @@ -169,7 +168,7 @@ def marcelBattingSeason(yr):
    finalProj[stat] = prorateProj[stat]/ageAdj
    ## reliability
    reliab = 1 - (1200.0/compPa)
    finalProj['rel'] = cxd(reliab, 2)
    finalProj['rel'] = round(reliab, 2)
    finalProj['Age'] = age
    ## add to master dict
    rawProjections[b] = finalProj
    @@ -200,9 +199,9 @@ def marcelBattingSeason(yr):
    if projRatios[stat] == 0:
    marcels[pl][stat] = rawProjections[pl][stat]
    else:
    marcels[pl][stat] = cxd((trueRatios[stat]/projRatios[stat])*rawProjections[pl][stat], 0)
    marcels[pl][stat] = round((trueRatios[stat]/projRatios[stat])*rawProjections[pl][stat], 0)
    elif stat == 'PA':
    marcels[pl][stat] = cxd(rawProjections[pl][stat], 0)
    marcels[pl][stat] = round(rawProjections[pl][stat], 0)
    else:
    marcels[pl][stat] = rawProjections[pl][stat]

    @@ -245,19 +244,17 @@ def marcelBattingSeason(yr):


    pitchers = createTuple('bdb_pitching.csv')
    ## this is the pitcher seasons sheet from the bb databank db. headers:
    ## this is the pitcher seasons sheet from the lahman db. headers:
    ## playerID,yearID,stint,teamID,lgID,W,L,G,GS,CG,SHO,SV,Ipouts,H,ER,HR,BB,SO,Baopp,ERA,IBB,WP,HP,BK,BFP,GF,R

    batters = createTuple('bdb_batting.csv')
    ## this is the batting seasons sheet from the bb databank db. headers:
    ## this is the batting seasons sheet from the lahman db. headers:
    ## playerID,yearID,stint,teamID,lgID,G,G_batting,AB,R,H,D,T,HR,RBI,SB,CS,BB,SO,IBB,HP,SH,SF,GIDP,G_old

    ## master db for birthYear
    master = createTuple('bdb_master.csv')
    ## master biographical data sheet from bb databank db. headers:
    ## lahmanID,playerID,managerID,hofID,birthYear,birthMonth,birthDay,birthCountry,birthState,birthCity,
    ## deathYear,deathMonth,deathDay,deathCountry,deathState,deathCity,nameFirst,nameLast,nameNote,nameGiven,
    ## nameNick,weight,height,bats,throws,debut,finalGame,college,lahman40ID,lahman
    ## master biographical data sheet from lahman db. headers:
    ## lahmanID,playerID,managerID,hofID,birthYear,birthMonth,birthDay,birthCountry,birthState,birthCity,deathYear,deathMonth,deathDay,deathCountry,deathState,deathCity,nameFirst,nameLast,nameNote,nameGiven,nameNick,weight,height,bats,throws,debut,finalGame,college,lahman40ID,lahman

    birthYear = {}
    for pl in master:
    @@ -268,4 +265,4 @@ def marcelBattingSeason(yr):
    firstlast[pl[1]] = [pl[16], pl[17]]

    ## sample usage
    ## marcelBattingSeason(2005)
    marcelBattingSeason(2005)
  2. JeffSackmann revised this gist Jan 14, 2011. 1 changed file with 3 additions and 3 deletions.
    6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions generateBattingMarcels.py
    View file
    Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
    @@ -245,16 +245,16 @@ def marcelBattingSeason(yr):


    pitchers = createTuple('bdb_pitching.csv')
    ## this is the pitcher seasons sheet from the lahman db. headers:
    ## this is the pitcher seasons sheet from the bb databank db. headers:
    ## playerID,yearID,stint,teamID,lgID,W,L,G,GS,CG,SHO,SV,Ipouts,H,ER,HR,BB,SO,Baopp,ERA,IBB,WP,HP,BK,BFP,GF,R

    batters = createTuple('bdb_batting.csv')
    ## this is the batting seasons sheet from the lahman db. headers:
    ## this is the batting seasons sheet from the bb databank db. headers:
    ## playerID,yearID,stint,teamID,lgID,G,G_batting,AB,R,H,D,T,HR,RBI,SB,CS,BB,SO,IBB,HP,SH,SF,GIDP,G_old

    ## master db for birthYear
    master = createTuple('bdb_master.csv')
    ## master biographical data sheet from lahman db. headers:
    ## master biographical data sheet from bb databank db. headers:
    ## lahmanID,playerID,managerID,hofID,birthYear,birthMonth,birthDay,birthCountry,birthState,birthCity,
    ## deathYear,deathMonth,deathDay,deathCountry,deathState,deathCity,nameFirst,nameLast,nameNote,nameGiven,
    ## nameNick,weight,height,bats,throws,debut,finalGame,college,lahman40ID,lahman
  3. JeffSackmann created this gist Jan 14, 2011.
    271 changes: 271 additions & 0 deletions generateBattingMarcels.py
    View file
    Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
    @@ -0,0 +1,271 @@
    ## Generate a full season's worth of batting Marcel projections from past years' stats

    from createTuple import createTuple ## gist: 778481
    from writeMatrixCSV import writeMatrixCSV ## gist: 778484
    from convXdig import convXdig as cxd ## gist: 779951

    def makeBatTable(r):
    for stat in ['AB', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'SO', 'BB', 'SF', 'HP', 'CI']:
    if stat in r: pass
    else: r[stat] = 0
    if r['AB'] == 0:
    r['SLG'] = 0
    r['AVG'] = 0
    slg = 0
    else:
    avg = float(r['H'])/float(r['AB'])
    r['AVG'] = cxd(avg, 3)
    slg = float(r['H']+r['D']+(2*r['T'])+(3*r['HR']))/float(r['AB'])
    r['SLG'] = cxd(slg, 3)
    if (r['AB']+r['BB']+r['SF']+r['HP']) == 0:
    r['OBP'] = 0
    r['OPS'] = 0
    r['wOBA'] = 0
    else:
    pa = float(r['AB']+r['BB']+r['SF']+r['HP']+r['CI'])
    obp = float(r['H']+r['BB']+r['HP']+r['CI'])/pa
    r['OBP'] = cxd(obp, 3)
    sing = int(r['H']) - int(r['HR']) - int(r['T']) - int(r['D'])
    num = (.72*int(r['BB'])) + (.75*int(r['HP'])) + (.9*sing) + (1.24*int(r['D'])) + (1.56*int(r['T'])) + (1.95*int(r['HR']))
    den = int(r['BB']) + int(r['AB']) + int(r['HP'])
    woba = num/den
    r['wOBA'] = cxd(woba, 3)
    return r

    def marcelBattingSeason(yr):
    # yr = year being projected, input as int
    yr = str(yr)
    yr1 = str(int(yr) - 1)
    yr2 = str(int(yr) - 2)
    yr3 = str(int(yr) - 3)

    ## get list of pitchers; determine which batters are really
    ## 'batters' and throw out pitchers with at-bats
    projectBatters = []
    for yr in [yr3, yr2, yr]:
    yearPitchers = {}
    for p in pitchers:
    pitchID = p[0]
    if p[1] == yr:
    yearPitchers[pitchID] = int(p[12])
    else: pass
    for b in batters:
    batID = b[0]
    if b[1] == yr: pass
    else: continue
    abString = b[7]
    if abString == '': continue
    else: batAb = int(abString)
    if batID in yearPitchers:
    if yearPitchers[batID] > batAb: continue
    else: pass
    else: pass
    if batID in projectBatters: pass
    else: projectBatters.append(batID)

    ## find league average for previous year
    yearPitchers = {}
    for p in pitchers:
    pitchID = p[0]
    if p[1] == yr1:
    yearPitchers[pitchID] = int(p[12])
    else: pass

    leagueAverage = {}
    for b in batters:
    batID = b[0]
    if b[1] == yr1: pass
    else: continue
    abString = b[7]
    if abString == '': continue
    else: batAb = int(abString)
    if batID in yearPitchers:
    if yearPitchers[batID] > batAb: continue
    else: pass
    else: pass
    if batID in projectBatters: pass
    else: projectBatters.append(batID)
    for stat in batHeaders:
    col = batHeaders[stat]
    try: playerStat = int(b[col])
    except: continue
    else: pass
    if stat in leagueAverage:
    leagueAverage[stat] += playerStat
    else:
    leagueAverage[stat] = playerStat

    for stat in ['HP', 'SF', 'SH']:
    if stat in leagueAverage: pass
    else: leagueAverage[stat] = 0
    totalPa = leagueAverage['AB'] + leagueAverage['BB'] + leagueAverage['HP'] + leagueAverage['SF'] + leagueAverage['SH']
    regression = {}
    for stat in leagueAverage:
    regression[stat] =(1200.0/totalPa)*leagueAverage[stat]

    rawProjections = {}

    ## calculate projections for each player
    for b in projectBatters:
    components = {}
    y2pa = 0
    y1pa = 0
    for stat in batHeaders:
    components[stat] = 0
    for row in batters:
    if row[0] == b: pass
    else: continue
    if row[1] == yr3:
    for stat in batHeaders:
    try: playerStat = int(row[batHeaders[stat]])
    except: continue
    components[stat] += 3*playerStat
    elif row[1] == yr2:
    for stat in batHeaders:
    try: playerStat = int(row[batHeaders[stat]])
    except: continue
    components[stat] += 4*playerStat

    for stat in ['AB', 'BB', 'HP', 'SF', 'SH']:
    try: y2pa += int(row[batHeaders[stat]])
    except: continue
    elif row[1] == yr1:
    for stat in batHeaders:
    try: playerStat = int(row[batHeaders[stat]])
    except: continue
    components[stat] += 5*playerStat

    for stat in ['AB', 'BB', 'HP', 'SF', 'SH']:
    try: y1pa += int(row[batHeaders[stat]])
    except: continue
    else: continue
    ## add regression component
    for stat in regression:
    components[stat] += regression[stat]
    ## get projected PA
    projPa = 0.5*y1pa + 0.1*y2pa + 200
    ## prorate into projected PA
    compPa = components['AB'] + components['BB'] + components['HP'] + components['SF'] + components['SH']
    prorateProj = {}
    for stat in components:
    prorateProj[stat] = (projPa/compPa)*components[stat]
    prorateProj['PA'] = projPa
    try: age = int(yr) - int(birthYear[b])
    except: age = 29 ## in case birthyear is missing or corrupted
    ## age adjust
    if age > 29:
    ageAdj = 1/(1 + ((age - 29)*0.003))
    elif age < 29:
    ageAdj = 1 + ((29 - age)*0.006)
    else:
    ageAdj = 1
    finalProj = {}
    for stat in prorateProj:
    if stat in ['PA', 'AB']:
    finalProj[stat] = prorateProj[stat]
    elif stat in ['R', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'RBI', 'SB', 'BB', 'IBB', 'HP', 'SH', 'SF']:
    finalProj[stat] = prorateProj[stat]*ageAdj
    else:
    finalProj[stat] = prorateProj[stat]/ageAdj
    ## reliability
    reliab = 1 - (1200.0/compPa)
    finalProj['rel'] = cxd(reliab, 2)
    finalProj['Age'] = age
    ## add to master dict
    rawProjections[b] = finalProj

    ## re-baseline
    projTotal = {}
    for pl in rawProjections:
    for stat in rawProjections[pl]:
    if stat in projTotal:
    projTotal[stat] += rawProjections[pl][stat]
    else:
    projTotal[stat] = rawProjections[pl][stat]
    projTotalPa = projTotal['PA']
    projRatios = {}
    for stat in ['AB', 'R', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'RBI', 'SB', 'CS', 'BB', 'SO', 'IBB', 'HP', 'SH', 'SF', 'GDP']:
    projRatios[stat] = projTotal[stat]/projTotalPa

    trueRatios = {}
    for stat in ['AB', 'R', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'RBI', 'SB', 'CS', 'BB', 'SO', 'IBB', 'HP', 'SH', 'SF', 'GDP']:
    try: trueRatios[stat] = leagueAverage[stat]/float(totalPa)
    except: trueRatios[stat] = 0

    marcels = {}
    for pl in rawProjections:
    marcels[pl] = {}
    for stat in rawProjections[pl]:
    if stat in ['AB', 'R', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'RBI', 'SB', 'CS', 'BB', 'SO', 'IBB', 'HP', 'SH', 'SF', 'GDP']:
    if projRatios[stat] == 0:
    marcels[pl][stat] = rawProjections[pl][stat]
    else:
    marcels[pl][stat] = cxd((trueRatios[stat]/projRatios[stat])*rawProjections[pl][stat], 0)
    elif stat == 'PA':
    marcels[pl][stat] = cxd(rawProjections[pl][stat], 0)
    else:
    marcels[pl][stat] = rawProjections[pl][stat]

    header = ['bdbID', 'First', 'Last', 'Year', 'age', 'rel', 'wOBA', 'AVG', 'OBP', 'SLG',
    'PA', 'AB', 'R', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'RBI',
    'SB', 'CS', 'BB', 'SO', 'IBB', 'HP', 'SH', 'SF', 'GDP']

    marcelSheet = [header]
    for pl in marcels:
    row = [pl]
    row += firstlast[pl]
    row.append(yr)
    marcels[pl] = makeBatTable(marcels[pl])
    for stat in ['Age', 'rel', 'wOBA', 'AVG', 'OBP', 'SLG',
    'PA', 'AB', 'R', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'RBI',
    'SB', 'CS', 'BB', 'SO', 'IBB', 'HP', 'SH', 'SF', 'GDP']:
    row.append(marcels[pl][stat])
    marcelSheet.append(row)

    filename = 'marcel_batters_' + yr + '.csv'
    writeMatrixCSV(marcelSheet, filename)

    batHeaders = {'AB': 7,
    'R': 8,
    'H': 9,
    'D': 10,
    'T': 11,
    'HR': 12,
    'RBI': 13,
    'SB': 14,
    'CS': 15,
    'BB': 16,
    'SO': 17,
    'IBB': 18,
    'HP': 19,
    'SH': 20,
    'SF': 21,
    'GDP': 22
    }


    pitchers = createTuple('bdb_pitching.csv')
    ## this is the pitcher seasons sheet from the lahman db. headers:
    ## playerID,yearID,stint,teamID,lgID,W,L,G,GS,CG,SHO,SV,Ipouts,H,ER,HR,BB,SO,Baopp,ERA,IBB,WP,HP,BK,BFP,GF,R

    batters = createTuple('bdb_batting.csv')
    ## this is the batting seasons sheet from the lahman db. headers:
    ## playerID,yearID,stint,teamID,lgID,G,G_batting,AB,R,H,D,T,HR,RBI,SB,CS,BB,SO,IBB,HP,SH,SF,GIDP,G_old

    ## master db for birthYear
    master = createTuple('bdb_master.csv')
    ## master biographical data sheet from lahman db. headers:
    ## lahmanID,playerID,managerID,hofID,birthYear,birthMonth,birthDay,birthCountry,birthState,birthCity,
    ## deathYear,deathMonth,deathDay,deathCountry,deathState,deathCity,nameFirst,nameLast,nameNote,nameGiven,
    ## nameNick,weight,height,bats,throws,debut,finalGame,college,lahman40ID,lahman

    birthYear = {}
    for pl in master:
    birthYear[pl[1]] = pl[4]

    firstlast = {}
    for pl in master:
    firstlast[pl[1]] = [pl[16], pl[17]]

    ## sample usage
    ## marcelBattingSeason(2005)