90% of companies blaming AI for layoffs don't have the tech to replace workers. I tracked the data. Here's what's really happening.
→ 55,000 fired "because of AI" in 2025 → 90% of these companies don't have mature AI to replace anyone (Forrester) → Junior dev jobs collapsed 67% in one year → Devs aged 22-25 lost 20% of jobs since ChatGPT launched → CS grads now have higher unemployment than philosophy majors → Meanwhile: Anthropic $61B → $350B, OpenAI hit $500B → 55% of companies already regret their AI layoffs
55,000 people got fired in 2025 with "AI" cited as the reason.
Forrester looked into it: 90% of these companies don't have mature AI systems ready to do the work.
Oxford Economics: "Firms don't appear to be replacing workers with AI on a significant scale."
What sounds better on an earnings call?
→ A) "We overhired during COVID and now we're correcting" → B) "We're leveraging cutting-edge AI to optimize our workforce"
Everyone picks B.
Stanford analyzed ADP payroll data — millions of workers.
→ Devs aged 22-25: -20% jobs since ChatGPT → Devs over 26: stable or growing → Entry-level postings: -67% in one year → CS grad unemployment: 6.1% (philosophy majors: 3.2%)
The ladder got pulled up.
GitHub Copilot: $10/month Junior developer: $7,500/month
750x difference.
Copilot can't attend meetings, understand context, take ownership of features.
But try explaining that to a CFO staring at a spreadsheet.
Marc Benioff (Salesforce): "I've reduced it from 9,000 heads to about 5,000 because I need less heads."
Shawn Kay, 42, software engineer, 20 years experience.
→ Lost $150K job — company "outsourced to AI" → Applied to 800+ jobs → Got ~10 interviews → Now lives in RV trailer → Does DoorDash, sells on eBay
"I feel super invisible. I feel like I'm filtered out before a human is even in the chain."
20 years experience. Can't get hired. What chance does a fresh grad have?
CEO bragged: "AI does the work of 700 humans!"
→ Customer satisfaction tanked → Complaints increased → CEO admitted they "went too far" → Now rehiring humans
Gartner predicts 50% of AI layoffs will be reversed by 2027.
But they won't hire the SAME people back. New people, cheaper, overseas, different titles.
While 55,000 got fired "because of AI":
→ Anthropic: $61B → $350B valuation → Seven co-founders became billionaires → Combined wealth: $26 billion → OpenAI hit $500B valuation → AI companies raised $150 billion in 2025
Money's there. Just not going to workers.
I don't think AI is about to replace all developers. The tech isn't there.
What I think:
→ Companies overhired 2020-2022. Need to cut. → "AI" makes them look innovative instead of incompetent → Junior devs screwed because AI CAN do some entry-level tasks → $10 vs $7,500 math too tempting for execs → AI founders making billions from firing workers
55% of companies already regret their AI layoffs.
More than half.
They fired people for AI that doesn't work.
The AI didn't take your job.
A human decided to blame AI for taking your job.
There's a difference.
- Forrester AI Job Impact Forecast (January 2026)
- Stanford Digital Economy Lab — ADP payroll analysis
- Oxford Economics report on AI employment
- Gartner predictions on AI layoff reversals
- CBS News, TechCrunch, Fortune coverage of 2025-2026 layoffs
Twitter version: https://x.com/AIGuru21/status/2019088997897691442