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Created February 3, 2026 19:14
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"We Sold Too Many Max Subscriptions" - Evidence of Claude's Capacity Crisis (Feb 2026)

"We Sold Too Many Max Subscriptions": Evidence of Claude's Capacity Crisis

πŸ’° TL;DR

Paying $200/month for Max 20x? Users report:

  • Quota burns 10x faster some hours than others (5.6%/hr vs 59.9%/hr)
  • Rate limited at 70% usage while dashboard shows capacity available
  • Max plan produces SHORTER output than Pro ($100 vs $20)
  • Same workload, same model β€” wildly inconsistent experience

As one HN user put it:

"Feels like the whole infra is built on a house of cards and badly struggles 70% of the time. I think my $20 OpenAI sub gets me more tokens than Claude's $100."


πŸ“Š The Evidence

1. Quota Burns 10x Faster Randomly

A Max 20x ($200/month) user instrumented their API calls and discovered massive variance in quota consumption:

Session Duration Burn Rate Status
Jan 30 18:41 - Jan 31 02:37 7.9h 9.3%/hr Normal
Jan 31 20:28 - Jan 31 22:01 1.5h 56.0%/hr πŸ”΄ 6x faster
Feb 01 15:00 - Feb 01 16:40 1.7h 59.9%/hr πŸ”΄ 6x faster

Same user. Same plan. Same workload type. 10x variance.

Source: GitHub Issue #22435 β€” "Legal liability claim ready"


2. Rate Limited at 70% Usage

Users hit rate limits while their dashboard shows plenty of capacity remaining:

"Claude Code reports I have hit my rate limit even though usage is reported at around 70%"

"I would also add that the chat function still works, only Claude Code is reporting hitting its rate limit."

You're paying for 100%. You're getting cut off at 70%.

Source: GitHub Issue #22441


3. Max Plan ($100) Produces SHORTER Output Than Pro ($20)

This one is wild:

"Claude Max plan ($100/month) produces drastically shorter code output than Pro/Plus plan ($20/month) when using the exact same model (Opus 4.5) and the exact same prompt."

  • Pro/Plus: Successfully generates ~5,000 lines of code
  • Max: Cannot complete even ~1,000 lines β€” stops mid-response

Pay 5x more, get less output. The user suspects:

  • Different max_tokens parameter server-side
  • Routing to different (overloaded?) server pools
  • "Intentional throttling to manage compute costs on higher-tier plans"

Source: GitHub Issue #22674


4. "I Just Purchased a THIRD $200 Max Plan and Instantly Hit Rate Limits"

From Hacker News:

"I just purchased a third $200 MAX plan and instantly hit rate limits"

Three Max subscriptions = $600/month. Still rate limited instantly.

Source: HN Comment, Jan 26, 2026


5. Holiday Bonus Bait-and-Switch

Anthropic gave users bonus capacity over the holidays. Then:

"Anthropic bumped limits over the holidays to drive more usage. Which combined with Opus's higher token usage and weird oddities in usage reporting / capping makes me suspect they want to drive people from Pro β†’ Max without admitting it."

Source: HN Comment, Jan 30, 2026


6. Pro Users Getting Squeezed

Multiple reports that Pro tier experience has degraded:

"Even when Claude isn't down on status indicator. I get issues with Claude all the time being very slow where it is basically down. I have to kill the request and then restart it. I wonder if it has to do with being on Pro plan. I rarely had this issue when I was on Max."

Source: HN Comment, Feb 3, 2026


7. Claude Code "Literally Unusable"

"How about how Claude 2.1.x is 'literally unusable' because it frequently completely hangs (requires kill -9) and uses 100% cpu?"

Source: HN Comment linking to GitHub #18532


πŸ“ˆ The Numbers Don't Lie

GitHub Issues (Last Week)

Issue Type Count
"Rate limit" issues 142
"Hit limit" issues 126
Total open issues 5,788

Official Incidents (Jan 20 - Feb 3, 2026)

19 incidents in 14 days = 1.36 incidents per day

For comparison:

  • OpenAI: 1-2 incidents per week
  • Google Cloud: 2-3 incidents per week
  • Anthropic: 9.5 incidents per week

🎯 What's Really Happening?

Theory: Classic Overselling

Airlines do it. ISPs do it. Now AI companies do it.

The pattern:

  1. Sell "5x more usage" and "20x more usage" tiers
  2. Don't actually have 20x the capacity
  3. Hope users don't all use their quota simultaneously
  4. When they do β†’ throttle, rate limit, blame "holiday bonus expiration"

Evidence Supporting This:

  1. Inconsistent burn rates (5.6%/hr to 59.9%/hr) suggest dynamic throttling based on server load

  2. Pro users degraded after Max tier launched β€” resources reallocated to higher-paying customers

  3. Rate limits at 70% β€” system is hitting actual capacity limits before users hit their paid quota

  4. Max produces less than Pro β€” possible routing to overloaded server pools

  5. Official incident on Aug 2025 acknowledged "routing to different server pools" as a bug source


πŸ’¬ User Sentiment (Hacker News, Feb 3, 2026)

"Anthropic might have the best product for coding but good god the experience is awful. Random limits where you know you shouldn't hit them yet, the jankiness of their client, the service being down semi-frequently. Feels like the whole infra is built on a house of cards and badly struggles 70% of the time."

"I think my $20 OpenAI sub gets me more tokens than Claude's $100. I can't wait until Google or OpenAI overtake them."

"I've cancelled my CC subscription, I'm not paying to support anticompetitive behaviour."

"The extremely blunt advice from Claude was that Claude Code was not suitable for serious software development due to usage limits!"


πŸ€” Questions Anthropic Should Answer

  1. What is the actual capacity for each tier? Not "5x more" β€” actual numbers.

  2. Why do burn rates vary 10x for the same user, same workload?

  3. Why does Max produce shorter output than Pro with identical prompts?

  4. Why are users rate limited at 70% when their dashboard shows capacity?

  5. What percentage of subscriptions can actually use their full quota simultaneously?


πŸ“‹ Summary

What They Sell What Users Get
"5x/20x more usage" Undefined, variable limits
Premium experience Rate limited at 70%
Max tier ($100-200) Shorter output than Pro ($20)
Professional tool "Not suitable for serious development"
99.41% uptime 84% calculated from their own data

πŸ”— Sources


Data collected: February 3, 2026

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