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January 31, 2026 21:19
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Impact of UI on child poverty by state: repeal vs. doubling (PolicyEngine-US 2026, state-level microsims)
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| { | |
| "nbformat": 4, | |
| "nbformat_minor": 5, | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "kernelspec": { | |
| "display_name": "Python 3", | |
| "language": "python", | |
| "name": "python3" | |
| }, | |
| "language_info": { | |
| "name": "python", | |
| "version": "3.14.0" | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "cells": [ | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "# Impact of unemployment insurance on child poverty by state: repeal vs. doubling\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "This notebook analyzes how repealing and doubling UI benefits would affect child poverty\n", | |
| "in each of the 50 states + DC in 2026, using PolicyEngine-US microsimulation with\n", | |
| "state-level calibrated datasets from HuggingFace.\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "**Methodology:**\n", | |
| "- For each state, run three microsimulations: baseline, UI zeroed (repeal), UI doubled\n", | |
| "- State datasets are calibrated to match state-level IRS SOI targets\n", | |
| "- Uses SPM (Supplemental Poverty Measure) for poverty measurement\n", | |
| "- Changes cascade through tax calculations and other benefits (SNAP, etc.)\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "**Total runtime:** 765.5s (12.8 min) for 51 jurisdictions \u00d7 3 simulations = 153 total sims\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "**PolicyEngine-US version:** 1.525.0" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n", | |
| "import numpy as np\n", | |
| "import pandas as pd\n", | |
| "import time\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "YEAR = 2026\n", | |
| "HF_BASE = \"hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/states\"\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "STATES = [\n", | |
| " \"AL\", \"AK\", \"AZ\", \"AR\", \"CA\", \"CO\", \"CT\", \"DC\", \"DE\", \"FL\",\n", | |
| " \"GA\", \"HI\", \"IA\", \"ID\", \"IL\", \"IN\", \"KS\", \"KY\", \"LA\", \"MA\",\n", | |
| " \"MD\", \"ME\", \"MI\", \"MN\", \"MO\", \"MS\", \"MT\", \"NC\", \"ND\", \"NE\",\n", | |
| " \"NH\", \"NJ\", \"NM\", \"NV\", \"NY\", \"OH\", \"OK\", \"OR\", \"PA\", \"RI\",\n", | |
| " \"SC\", \"SD\", \"TN\", \"TX\", \"UT\", \"VA\", \"VT\", \"WA\", \"WI\", \"WV\",\n", | |
| " \"WY\",\n", | |
| "]" | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": 1, | |
| "outputs": [] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "## Run simulations for each state" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "def run_state(state_code):\n", | |
| " \"\"\"Run baseline, repeal, and doubling sims for a single state.\"\"\"\n", | |
| " dataset = f\"{HF_BASE}/{state_code}.h5\"\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=dataset)\n", | |
| " is_child = baseline.calc(\"is_child\", period=YEAR)\n", | |
| " total_children = float(is_child.sum())\n", | |
| " baseline_poverty = baseline.calc(\"person_in_poverty\", period=YEAR)\n", | |
| " baseline_rate = float(baseline_poverty[is_child.values == 1].mean())\n", | |
| " baseline_ui = float(baseline.calc(\"unemployment_compensation\", period=YEAR).sum())\n", | |
| " baseline_net_income = baseline.calc(\"spm_unit_net_income\", period=YEAR)\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " repeal = Microsimulation(dataset=dataset)\n", | |
| " repeal.set_input(\"unemployment_compensation\", YEAR,\n", | |
| " repeal.calc(\"unemployment_compensation\", period=YEAR).values * 0)\n", | |
| " repeal_poverty = repeal.calc(\"person_in_poverty\", period=YEAR)\n", | |
| " repeal_rate = float(repeal_poverty[is_child.values == 1].mean())\n", | |
| " repeal_net_income_change = float(\n", | |
| " (repeal.calc(\"spm_unit_net_income\", period=YEAR) - baseline_net_income).sum())\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " doubled = Microsimulation(dataset=dataset)\n", | |
| " doubled.set_input(\"unemployment_compensation\", YEAR,\n", | |
| " doubled.calc(\"unemployment_compensation\", period=YEAR).values * 2)\n", | |
| " doubled_poverty = doubled.calc(\"person_in_poverty\", period=YEAR)\n", | |
| " doubled_rate = float(doubled_poverty[is_child.values == 1].mean())\n", | |
| " doubled_net_income_change = float(\n", | |
| " (doubled.calc(\"spm_unit_net_income\", period=YEAR) - baseline_net_income).sum())\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " return {\n", | |
| " \"state\": state_code,\n", | |
| " \"total_children\": total_children,\n", | |
| " \"total_ui_billions\": baseline_ui / 1e9,\n", | |
| " \"baseline_child_poverty_rate\": baseline_rate,\n", | |
| " \"repeal_child_poverty_rate\": repeal_rate,\n", | |
| " \"doubled_child_poverty_rate\": doubled_rate,\n", | |
| " \"repeal_increase_pp\": repeal_rate - baseline_rate,\n", | |
| " \"doubled_reduction_pp\": baseline_rate - doubled_rate,\n", | |
| " \"repeal_children_into_poverty\": total_children * (repeal_rate - baseline_rate),\n", | |
| " \"doubled_children_lifted\": total_children * (baseline_rate - doubled_rate),\n", | |
| " \"repeal_net_income_change_billions\": repeal_net_income_change / 1e9,\n", | |
| " \"doubled_net_income_change_billions\": doubled_net_income_change / 1e9,\n", | |
| " }\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "total_start = time.time()\n", | |
| "results = []\n", | |
| "for i, state in enumerate(STATES):\n", | |
| " t0 = time.time()\n", | |
| " result = run_state(state)\n", | |
| " results.append(result)\n", | |
| " elapsed = time.time() - t0\n", | |
| " print(f\"[{i+1}/{len(STATES)}] {state}: {elapsed:.1f}s | \"\n", | |
| " f\"baseline={result['baseline_child_poverty_rate']:.1%} \"\n", | |
| " f\"repeal={result['repeal_child_poverty_rate']:.1%} \"\n", | |
| " f\"doubled={result['doubled_child_poverty_rate']:.1%}\")\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "total_elapsed = time.time() - total_start\n", | |
| "print(f\"\\nTotal: {total_elapsed:.1f}s ({total_elapsed/60:.1f} min) for {len(STATES)} states\")\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "df = pd.DataFrame(results)" | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": 2, | |
| "outputs": [ | |
| { | |
| "output_type": "stream", | |
| "name": "stdout", | |
| "text": [ | |
| "[1/51] AL: ... | baseline=19.7% repeal=19.7% doubled=19.6%\n[2/51] AK: ... | baseline=21.4% repeal=21.4% doubled=21.4%\n[3/51] AZ: ... | baseline=25.4% repeal=25.6% doubled=25.4%\n[4/51] AR: ... | baseline=18.1% repeal=18.2% doubled=18.1%\n[5/51] CA: ... | baseline=29.5% repeal=30.2% doubled=29.2%\n[6/51] CO: ... | baseline=16.5% repeal=16.6% doubled=16.4%\n[7/51] CT: ... | baseline=21.1% repeal=21.8% doubled=21.0%\n[8/51] DC: ... | baseline=21.5% repeal=21.8% doubled=21.5%\n[9/51] DE: ... | baseline=20.9% repeal=21.1% doubled=20.9%\n[10/51] FL: ... | baseline=32.5% repeal=32.6% doubled=32.4%\n[11/51] GA: ... | baseline=25.1% repeal=25.1% doubled=25.0%\n[12/51] HI: ... | baseline=23.7% repeal=24.1% doubled=23.4%\n[13/51] IA: ... | baseline=15.0% repeal=15.2% doubled=15.0%\n[14/51] ID: ... | baseline=14.1% repeal=14.3% doubled=14.1%\n[15/51] IL: ... | baseline=22.3% repeal=22.7% doubled=22.2%\n[16/51] IN: ... | baseline=19.3% repeal=19.4% doubled=19.3%\n[17/51] KS: ... | baseline=14.9% repeal=15.0% doubled=14.9%\n[18/51] KY: ... | baseline=18.9% repeal=19.1% doubled=18.8%\n[19/51] LA: ... | baseline=24.2% repeal=24.3% doubled=24.2%\n[20/51] MA: ... | baseline=23.4% repeal=24.3% doubled=23.1%\n[21/51] MD: ... | baseline=24.9% repeal=25.1% doubled=24.8%\n[22/51] ME: ... | baseline=19.2% repeal=19.4% doubled=19.2%\n[23/51] MI: ... | baseline=21.7% repeal=22.1% doubled=21.7%\n[24/51] MN: ... | baseline=15.5% repeal=15.8% doubled=15.4%\n[25/51] MO: ... | baseline=18.8% repeal=18.9% doubled=18.7%\n[26/51] MS: ... | baseline=20.0% repeal=20.1% doubled=20.0%\n[27/51] MT: ... | baseline=17.9% repeal=18.1% doubled=17.8%\n[28/51] NC: ... | baseline=22.3% repeal=22.3% doubled=22.3%\n[29/51] ND: ... | baseline=14.6% repeal=14.6% doubled=14.6%\n[30/51] NE: ... | baseline=17.1% repeal=17.1% doubled=17.1%\n[31/51] NH: ... | baseline=19.6% repeal=19.8% doubled=19.6%\n[32/51] NJ: ... | baseline=21.1% repeal=21.8% doubled=20.8%\n[33/51] NM: ... | baseline=25.7% repeal=26.0% doubled=25.7%\n[34/51] NV: ... | baseline=28.4% repeal=29.0% doubled=28.4%\n[35/51] NY: ... | baseline=27.4% repeal=27.9% doubled=27.3%\n[36/51] OH: ... | baseline=19.8% repeal=19.9% doubled=19.8%\n[37/51] OK: ... | baseline=22.0% repeal=22.1% doubled=21.9%\n[38/51] OR: ... | baseline=25.2% repeal=25.7% doubled=25.2%\n[39/51] PA: ... | baseline=21.7% repeal=22.2% doubled=21.6%\n[40/51] RI: ... | baseline=22.7% repeal=23.7% doubled=22.7%\n[41/51] SC: ... | baseline=20.5% repeal=20.6% doubled=20.5%\n[42/51] SD: ... | baseline=20.2% repeal=20.2% doubled=20.2%\n[43/51] TN: ... | baseline=22.7% repeal=22.8% doubled=22.7%\n[44/51] TX: ... | baseline=28.7% repeal=29.1% doubled=28.6%\n[45/51] UT: ... | baseline=13.9% repeal=14.0% doubled=13.9%\n[46/51] VA: ... | baseline=21.4% repeal=21.5% doubled=21.4%\n[47/51] VT: ... | baseline=20.6% repeal=21.0% doubled=20.6%\n[48/51] WA: ... | baseline=24.7% repeal=26.1% doubled=24.6%\n[49/51] WI: ... | baseline=17.3% repeal=17.4% doubled=17.3%\n[50/51] WV: ... | baseline=21.6% repeal=21.7% doubled=21.5%\n[51/51] WY: ... | baseline=13.6% repeal=13.6% doubled=13.5%\n\nTotal: 765.5s (12.8 min) for 51 states" | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "## National aggregates" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "total_children = df[\"total_children\"].sum()\n", | |
| "national_baseline = (df[\"baseline_child_poverty_rate\"] * df[\"total_children\"]).sum() / total_children\n", | |
| "national_repeal = (df[\"repeal_child_poverty_rate\"] * df[\"total_children\"]).sum() / total_children\n", | |
| "national_doubled = (df[\"doubled_child_poverty_rate\"] * df[\"total_children\"]).sum() / total_children\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "print(\"NATIONAL AGGREGATES (child-weighted across states)\")\n", | |
| "print(f\" Baseline child poverty: {national_baseline:.2%}\")\n", | |
| "print(f\" Repeal UI: {national_repeal:.2%} (+{national_repeal - national_baseline:.2%})\")\n", | |
| "print(f\" Double UI: {national_doubled:.2%} (-{national_baseline - national_doubled:.2%})\")\n", | |
| "print(f\" Children into poverty (repeal): {df['repeal_children_into_poverty'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", | |
| "print(f\" Children lifted (doubling): {df['doubled_children_lifted'].sum():,.0f}\")\n", | |
| "print(f\" Total UI (baseline): ${df['total_ui_billions'].sum():.1f}B\")\n", | |
| "print(f\" Net income change (repeal): ${df['repeal_net_income_change_billions'].sum():.1f}B\")\n", | |
| "print(f\" Net income change (doubling): ${df['doubled_net_income_change_billions'].sum():.1f}B\")" | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": 3, | |
| "outputs": [ | |
| { | |
| "output_type": "stream", | |
| "name": "stdout", | |
| "text": [ | |
| "NATIONAL AGGREGATES (child-weighted across states)\n Baseline child poverty: 23.91%\n Repeal UI: 24.24% (+0.33%)\n Double UI: 23.83% (-0.08%)\n Children into poverty (repeal): 254,365\n Children lifted (doubling): 63,024\n Total UI (baseline): $42.4B\n Net income change (repeal): $-34.4B\n Net income change (doubling): $33.4B" | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "## Top 10 states by repeal impact (child poverty increase)" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "top_repeal = df.nlargest(10, \"repeal_increase_pp\")\n", | |
| "top_repeal[[\"state\", \"baseline_child_poverty_rate\", \"repeal_child_poverty_rate\",\n", | |
| " \"repeal_increase_pp\", \"repeal_children_into_poverty\"]].style.format({\n", | |
| " \"baseline_child_poverty_rate\": \"{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"repeal_child_poverty_rate\": \"{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"repeal_increase_pp\": \"+{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"repeal_children_into_poverty\": \"{:,.0f}\",\n", | |
| "})" | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": 4, | |
| "outputs": [ | |
| { | |
| "output_type": "execute_result", | |
| "data": { | |
| "text/plain": [ | |
| " state baseline_child_poverty_rate repeal_child_poverty_rate repeal_increase_pp repeal_children_into_poverty\n47 WA 0.247143 0.260597 0.013454 23683.071850\n39 RI 0.227004 0.236659 0.009655 2145.162720\n19 MA 0.234324 0.243064 0.008740 12737.398739\n6 CT 0.211020 0.218134 0.007114 5525.743126\n31 NJ 0.210556 0.217514 0.006957 14805.772559\n4 CA 0.295325 0.301625 0.006300 56625.902204\n33 NV 0.284125 0.289951 0.005826 4238.041076\n38 PA 0.216508 0.221572 0.005064 14397.662886\n34 NY 0.274450 0.279381 0.004931 20836.353414\n37 OR 0.252346 0.256602 0.004256 3744.121133" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "execution_count": 4 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "## Top 10 states by doubling impact (child poverty reduction)" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "top_doubled = df.nlargest(10, \"doubled_reduction_pp\")\n", | |
| "top_doubled[[\"state\", \"baseline_child_poverty_rate\", \"doubled_child_poverty_rate\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_reduction_pp\", \"doubled_children_lifted\"]].style.format({\n", | |
| " \"baseline_child_poverty_rate\": \"{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_child_poverty_rate\": \"{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_reduction_pp\": \"-{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_children_lifted\": \"{:,.0f}\",\n", | |
| "})" | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": 5, | |
| "outputs": [ | |
| { | |
| "output_type": "execute_result", | |
| "data": { | |
| "text/plain": [ | |
| " state baseline_child_poverty_rate doubled_child_poverty_rate doubled_reduction_pp doubled_children_lifted\n11 HI 0.237300 0.233781 0.003519 1087.619537\n19 MA 0.234324 0.231383 0.002941 4286.188429\n4 CA 0.295325 0.292440 0.002885 25930.013116\n31 NJ 0.210556 0.208398 0.002158 4592.444680\n34 NY 0.274450 0.272760 0.001690 7140.500802\n47 WA 0.247143 0.245859 0.001284 2260.485893\n20 MD 0.249268 0.248206 0.001061 1531.155141\n6 CT 0.211020 0.210233 0.000787 611.273614\n12 IA 0.150406 0.149733 0.000673 516.879625\n18 LA 0.242484 0.241831 0.000653 740.856899" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "execution_count": 5 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "## Full state results" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "# All states sorted alphabetically\n", | |
| "display_cols = [\"state\", \"total_children\", \"total_ui_billions\",\n", | |
| " \"baseline_child_poverty_rate\", \"repeal_child_poverty_rate\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_child_poverty_rate\", \"repeal_increase_pp\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_reduction_pp\", \"repeal_children_into_poverty\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_children_lifted\"]\n", | |
| "df[display_cols].sort_values(\"state\").style.format({\n", | |
| " \"total_children\": \"{:,.0f}\",\n", | |
| " \"total_ui_billions\": \"${:.2f}B\",\n", | |
| " \"baseline_child_poverty_rate\": \"{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"repeal_child_poverty_rate\": \"{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_child_poverty_rate\": \"{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"repeal_increase_pp\": \"+{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_reduction_pp\": \"-{:.2%}\",\n", | |
| " \"repeal_children_into_poverty\": \"{:,.0f}\",\n", | |
| " \"doubled_children_lifted\": \"{:,.0f}\",\n", | |
| "})" | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": 6, | |
| "outputs": [ | |
| { | |
| "output_type": "execute_result", | |
| "data": { | |
| "text/plain": [ | |
| "State Children UI ($B) Baseline Repeal Double Repeal \u0394 Double \u0394\n AL 1,202,651 $0.20 19.68% 19.71% 19.65% +0.03% -0.03%\n AK 175,056 $0.09 21.43% 21.43% 21.43% +0.00% -0.00%\n AZ 1,685,809 $0.46 25.39% 25.60% 25.38% +0.20% -0.02%\n AR 732,074 $0.14 18.12% 18.24% 18.07% +0.11% -0.05%\n CA 8,988,055 $9.16 29.53% 30.16% 29.24% +0.63% -0.29%\n CO 1,290,231 $0.59 16.48% 16.63% 16.44% +0.15% -0.04%\n CT 776,764 $0.82 21.10% 21.81% 21.02% +0.71% -0.08%\n DC 139,333 $0.08 21.50% 21.77% 21.50% +0.27% -0.00%\n DE 225,678 $0.10 20.93% 21.12% 20.90% +0.20% -0.03%\n FL 4,769,900 $1.33 32.49% 32.57% 32.44% +0.08% -0.04%\n GA 2,668,404 $0.59 25.06% 25.14% 25.02% +0.09% -0.04%\n HI 309,099 $0.27 23.73% 24.14% 23.38% +0.41% -0.35%\n IA 768,072 $0.32 15.04% 15.19% 14.97% +0.15% -0.07%\n ID 488,435 $0.15 14.08% 14.26% 14.06% +0.18% -0.02%\n IL 2,898,799 $1.90 22.26% 22.68% 22.21% +0.42% -0.05%\n IN 1,675,297 $0.36 19.28% 19.41% 19.27% +0.13% -0.01%\n KS 721,175 $0.15 14.95% 14.96% 14.90% +0.02% -0.05%\n KY 1,065,433 $0.36 18.89% 19.06% 18.85% +0.17% -0.04%\n LA 1,134,012 $0.27 24.25% 24.32% 24.18% +0.07% -0.07%\n MA 1,457,348 $2.42 23.43% 24.31% 23.14% +0.87% -0.29%\n MD 1,442,745 $0.59 24.93% 25.08% 24.82% +0.16% -0.11%\n ME 263,488 $0.14 19.21% 19.44% 19.21% +0.22% -0.00%\n MI 2,251,464 $1.23 21.75% 22.08% 21.73% +0.33% -0.02%\n MN 1,378,158 $1.04 15.47% 15.81% 15.42% +0.35% -0.05%\n MO 1,451,419 $0.32 18.77% 18.87% 18.73% +0.09% -0.04%\n MS 718,888 $0.13 19.96% 20.06% 19.96% +0.09% -0.00%\n MT 247,133 $0.13 17.86% 18.09% 17.81% +0.22% -0.06%\n NC 2,481,945 $0.41 22.30% 22.33% 22.26% +0.03% -0.04%\n ND 192,884 $0.08 14.58% 14.58% 14.57% +0.00% -0.01%\n NE 506,288 $0.09 17.07% 17.09% 17.07% +0.02% -0.00%\n NH 272,691 $0.16 19.56% 19.81% 19.56% +0.25% -0.00%\n NJ 2,128,088 $2.69 21.06% 21.75% 20.84% +0.70% -0.22%\n NM 478,991 $0.22 25.70% 25.96% 25.70% +0.25% -0.00%\n NV 727,406 $0.46 28.41% 29.00% 28.40% +0.58% -0.01%\n NY 4,225,639 $3.52 27.45% 27.94% 27.28% +0.49% -0.17%\n OH 2,733,370 $0.98 19.79% 19.91% 19.77% +0.12% -0.02%\n OK 1,023,852 $0.27 21.96% 22.08% 21.91% +0.12% -0.05%\n OR 879,785 $0.65 25.23% 25.66% 25.18% +0.43% -0.06%\n PA 2,843,147 $2.02 21.65% 22.16% 21.63% +0.51% -0.03%\n RI 222,181 $0.29 22.70% 23.67% 22.68% +0.97% -0.02%\n SC 1,211,730 $0.23 20.54% 20.57% 20.51% +0.03% -0.03%\n SD 220,971 $0.06 20.17% 20.17% 20.17% +0.00% -0.00%\n TN 1,662,310 $0.40 22.74% 22.75% 22.74% +0.02% -0.00%\n TX 7,925,725 $3.32 28.66% 29.06% 28.65% +0.40% -0.01%\n UT 962,101 $0.18 13.88% 13.96% 13.87% +0.08% -0.01%\n VA 2,003,654 $0.37 21.40% 21.46% 21.39% +0.06% -0.01%\n VT 125,498 $0.08 20.63% 21.01% 20.63% +0.38% -0.00%\n WA 1,760,288 $1.94 24.71% 26.06% 24.59% +1.35% -0.13%\n WI 1,316,984 $0.44 17.35% 17.44% 17.34% +0.10% -0.01%\n WV 379,073 $0.16 21.57% 21.72% 21.52% +0.15% -0.05%\n WY 137,283 $0.05 13.57% 13.57% 13.53% +0.00% -0.04%" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "execution_count": 6 | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": {}, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "from importlib.metadata import version\n", | |
| "print(f\"PolicyEngine-US version: {version('policyengine-us')}\")" | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": 7, | |
| "outputs": [ | |
| { | |
| "output_type": "stream", | |
| "name": "stdout", | |
| "text": [ | |
| "PolicyEngine-US version: 1.525.0" | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } |
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| state | total_children | total_ui_billions | baseline_child_poverty_rate | repeal_child_poverty_rate | doubled_child_poverty_rate | repeal_increase_pp | doubled_reduction_pp | repeal_children_into_poverty | doubled_children_lifted | repeal_net_income_change_billions | doubled_net_income_change_billions | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 1202650.6300404768 | 0.20334580025176704 | 0.19682392603794643 | 0.19710691134671182 | 0.19649718766514757 | 0.00028298530876538774 | 0.0003267383727988682 | 340.33245987889245 | 392.952109904959 | -0.1717821577758353 | 0.17073778955456603 | |
| AK | 175056.13950728183 | 0.0903962333692376 | 0.21431718288320262 | 0.21431718288320262 | 0.21431718288320262 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.06535990134695355 | 0.0727991005189191 | |
| AZ | 1685809.130016325 | 0.4602573131932434 | 0.25393554256592926 | 0.2559557668361029 | 0.2537585565377616 | 0.0020202242701736206 | 0.0001769860281676805 | 3405.7125193392567 | 298.36466217040226 | -0.3754060711609629 | 0.35769625264472643 | |
| AR | 732073.7678552107 | 0.14320999353524078 | 0.18123011554273097 | 0.18235781003690613 | 0.18068902257264885 | 0.0011276944941751577 | 0.0005410929700821188 | 825.5555573403836 | 396.11996936798346 | -0.11662832186838669 | 0.11344168673428413 | |
| CA | 8988054.538800022 | 9.155268136615948 | 0.29532458282799096 | 0.30162471173343997 | 0.29243964115300686 | 0.0063001289054490095 | 0.0028849416749840984 | 56625.90220364618 | 25930.01311601416 | -7.687854340099521 | 7.465531186398171 | |
| CO | 1290230.7273362658 | 0.5900320453821395 | 0.16475055431486152 | 0.16626747596812105 | 0.16435133561041326 | 0.0015169216532595342 | 0.00039921870444825647 | 1957.1789279971797 | 515.0842394065157 | -0.4599073123810685 | 0.45188357898899556 | |
| CT | 776763.6104155292 | 0.8211252124254173 | 0.21102011840723078 | 0.21813392118045744 | 0.21023316906269654 | 0.007113802773226652 | 0.0007869493445342435 | 5525.743125915538 | 611.2736140745532 | -0.6495314952980937 | 0.6202491798839798 | |
| DC | 139332.83242663316 | 0.08318128697926229 | 0.21498446758687859 | 0.21770313421578413 | 0.21498446758687859 | 0.0027186666289055472 | 0.0 | 378.7995218291763 | 0.0 | -0.06798402830296235 | 0.06682152262747475 | |
| DE | 225678.4563994806 | 0.09648983567298158 | 0.20927847667145794 | 0.21124989667973731 | 0.20898725854701727 | 0.0019714200082793787 | 0.000291218124440662 | 444.90702438354145 | 65.72165679932046 | -0.07621446369123663 | 0.07372200279472703 | |
| FL | 4769900.065206092 | 1.3270832728799704 | 0.32486122320761235 | 0.3256693141896995 | 0.3244160385565304 | 0.0008080909820871729 | 0.0004451846510819535 | 3854.513228150061 | 2123.486296224561 | -1.0950223887049337 | 1.0714428552911193 | |
| GA | 2668403.7976327967 | 0.588906870713737 | 0.2505711551004414 | 0.2514347089077316 | 0.25016305466372635 | 0.000863553807290196 | 0.00040810043671507534 | 2304.3102588334195 | 1088.9767551461098 | -0.4744885969687842 | 0.4602364022885087 | |
| HI | 309099.0156309607 | 0.2699570155100037 | 0.23729963893633618 | 0.24138979610179545 | 0.2337809621293804 | 0.004090157165459268 | 0.0035186768069557783 | 1264.2635536193802 | 1087.619537353523 | -0.20274403729098683 | 0.20266436362783802 | |
| IA | 768072.1373110258 | 0.3226278084169104 | 0.15040559255046254 | 0.15188591105026325 | 0.1497326354158384 | 0.001480318499800709 | 0.000672957134624147 | 1136.991394042982 | 516.8796247094723 | -0.2639253571252238 | 0.2517333284493637 | |
| ID | 488434.92865129746 | 0.14786675060754473 | 0.140824476718541 | 0.1425812963934009 | 0.14059546939772782 | 0.001756819674859883 | 0.00022900732081318487 | 858.0920925433826 | 111.85517440201274 | -0.11874520585595405 | 0.11531473512537131 | |
| IL | 2898799.2429649658 | 1.8959320847474246 | 0.2225501582648133 | 0.22676893201727433 | 0.2220579063297603 | 0.004218773752461019 | 0.0004922519350530064 | 12229.37815987447 | 1426.9395366796944 | -1.499323652386219 | 1.4425440385621457 | |
| IN | 1675296.6298815827 | 0.355778572909399 | 0.19278249131093378 | 0.19411920612852077 | 0.19271523400546933 | 0.001336714817586987 | 6.725730546444653e-05 | 2239.3938290162537 | 112.67593717950342 | -0.28991925320305373 | 0.2813575158303727 | |
| KS | 721174.8136803242 | 0.15485422007861344 | 0.1494685368571491 | 0.14962052958637148 | 0.14898044605821636 | 0.00015199272922239437 | 0.0004880907989327221 | 109.61332817772424 | 351.99879097938646 | -0.12544205431362676 | 0.12067523837351674 | |
| KY | 1065433.374547214 | 0.36114224382739984 | 0.18890184305897265 | 0.19059440592863622 | 0.1884577479906471 | 0.001692562869663572 | 0.00044409506832554513 | 1803.3129698589757 | 473.1537072658611 | -0.28692599462295426 | 0.2779121743810364 | |
| LA | 1134012.0194222308 | 0.27089546026321354 | 0.24248436367286166 | 0.2431614831387961 | 0.24183105763564988 | 0.0006771194659344337 | 0.0006533060372117816 | 767.8616129544096 | 740.8568985592675 | -0.2192973706597456 | 0.2094116994823436 | |
| MA | 1457347.919335797 | 2.4188011337825612 | 0.23432415496099535 | 0.24306427704873396 | 0.23138306699433211 | 0.008740122087738611 | 0.0029410879666632306 | 12737.398739306707 | 4286.188428800209 | -1.8978025640809928 | 1.8385603975726594 | |
| MD | 1442745.1270782095 | 0.5873625943713037 | 0.2492676924401436 | 0.25082447522507445 | 0.24820641341594818 | 0.001556782784930849 | 0.0010612790241954217 | 2246.040776878227 | 1531.155140628262 | -0.4614401391479247 | 0.4514791823714639 | |
| ME | 263487.5172661381 | 0.1403829336312841 | 0.19211060838330665 | 0.19435361402412618 | 0.19211054751022563 | 0.0022430056408195287 | 6.087308102031841e-08 | 591.0039875134808 | 0.01603929698638417 | -0.11044054361227694 | 0.10539802499792507 | |
| MI | 2251463.790653994 | 1.2307367904858681 | 0.21748455229041933 | 0.2207505285343129 | 0.2172533772920387 | 0.0032659762438935758 | 0.00023117499838062883 | 7353.227254262522 | 520.4821381584815 | -0.9688930219203333 | 0.9463126656067748 | |
| MN | 1378158.4031145456 | 1.0428961427347447 | 0.1546585944633963 | 0.15814142634707204 | 0.1541873117396364 | 0.0034828318836757355 | 0.00047128272375990266 | 4799.894027122977 | 649.502245992421 | -0.8191648972759188 | 0.7700783787022445 | |
| MO | 1451418.8307794249 | 0.3215921706851125 | 0.18773824038425793 | 0.18868000332331128 | 0.18734143204203801 | 0.0009417629390533477 | 0.00039680834221991756 | 1366.8924638722046 | 575.9351001083546 | -0.2620008789961781 | 0.2495636413275326 | |
| MS | 718887.6861817541 | 0.13148217981289545 | 0.19964474263788742 | 0.20057128411303468 | 0.19962040009928192 | 0.0009265414751472578 | 2.434253860550406e-05 | 666.0792572200414 | 17.499551253900837 | -0.1069334502267543 | 0.10553170436367255 | |
| MT | 247133.007207261 | 0.12787498677784756 | 0.1786374011200733 | 0.18086072588475824 | 0.17807209936238058 | 0.0022233247646849252 | 0.0005653017576927322 | 549.4569350949615 | 139.7047233581553 | -0.1026889340928633 | 0.09919220859834003 | |
| NC | 2481944.5208605714 | 0.40890613774279017 | 0.22300140152643239 | 0.22329154406435667 | 0.2225922995722702 | 0.0002901425379242817 | 0.00040910195416218875 | 720.1176822697515 | 1015.368353606197 | -0.3248791765047771 | 0.3184249908558844 | |
| ND | 192883.94486008462 | 0.077859855751616 | 0.145750423412809 | 0.14578073289283544 | 0.14568610556993145 | 3.0309480026441404e-05 | 6.431784287755371e-05 | 5.84621207415796 | 12.405879259113656 | -0.0653817239206461 | 0.0626127860770946 | |
| NE | 506287.63118712086 | 0.08705346130796501 | 0.17071167127273235 | 0.17086208294684188 | 0.17071092786303146 | 0.00015041167410953515 | 7.434097008818252e-07 | 76.15157018780575 | 0.37637913646098536 | -0.07082287562668976 | 0.0703300937344564 | |
| NH | 272691.31441301794 | 0.1612741767858445 | 0.1956408454148181 | 0.19811785891707426 | 0.19564084040011984 | 0.0024770135022561535 | 5.014698267746809e-09 | 675.4600677490234 | 0.0013674646620165615 | -0.13932879897056327 | 0.13384619600626535 | |
| NJ | 2128087.727897618 | 2.6853639087412127 | 0.21055646784773618 | 0.21751378091544343 | 0.20839845310992638 | 0.006957313067707249 | 0.002158014737809799 | 14805.772558529527 | 4592.444680155229 | -2.2503250206546377 | 2.1922166615404524 | |
| NM | 478991.4751615741 | 0.2233678255998862 | 0.25704114079020385 | 0.2595864637290444 | 0.2570411225222703 | 0.0025453229388405774 | 1.826793355474976e-08 | 1219.187989237841 | 0.008750184441543206 | -0.17816620471980035 | 0.16952613102914144 | |
| NV | 727405.5718059521 | 0.4633757290546251 | 0.28412481076972634 | 0.2899510530205655 | 0.28400606544229134 | 0.005826242250839164 | 0.00011874532743499921 | 4238.04107595166 | 86.37601280214062 | -0.3924751119873389 | 0.3810686663110962 | |
| NY | 4225639.276017142 | 3.521945643864442 | 0.2744501075766828 | 0.2793810427684279 | 0.27276030389603045 | 0.004930935191745089 | 0.0016898036806523575 | 20836.35341373317 | 7140.500801722931 | -2.7141078132310414 | 2.6052184869905015 | |
| OH | 2733370.119419235 | 0.9836366266703656 | 0.19788860407282727 | 0.19913527601664766 | 0.1976925925680425 | 0.0012466719438203877 | 0.00019601150478476548 | 3407.6158399569426 | 535.7719902410784 | -0.7986618066681604 | 0.7842271353679009 | |
| OK | 1023852.2601124952 | 0.2657748627974801 | 0.21955321966842856 | 0.22079392078867596 | 0.2190552329715945 | 0.001240701120247406 | 0.0004979866968340685 | 1270.2946460894113 | 509.864805059517 | -0.2103618986949487 | 0.20244219176454356 | |
| OR | 879785.0487799975 | 0.6473884878626265 | 0.25234597323582647 | 0.25660169585656384 | 0.2517724984524852 | 0.004255722620737368 | 0.0005734747833412435 | 3744.121133479564 | 504.53454023597436 | -0.49470820582786346 | 0.47405425223027586 | |
| PA | 2843147.3518972876 | 2.0234345616782234 | 0.2165075720003143 | 0.2215715595832518 | 0.21625162723001234 | 0.005063987582937496 | 0.00025594477030196905 | 14397.662886469489 | 727.6886959160029 | -1.694803376653566 | 1.6568565435831937 | |
| RI | 222180.86815058364 | 0.29232266354158715 | 0.227004104970129 | 0.2366591339448361 | 0.22679932559961968 | 0.009655028974707103 | 0.00020477937050930595 | 2145.1627196194636 | 45.49805831908762 | -0.23599275240306206 | 0.22663995165503378 | |
| SC | 1211730.3729222403 | 0.22686630206302053 | 0.2054182404445394 | 0.2056739129464381 | 0.20514940225483924 | 0.0002556725018987016 | 0.0002688381897001657 | 309.8061360716759 | 325.7593998611218 | -0.1847144248937156 | 0.18036741273530724 | |
| SD | 220971.3609758336 | 0.05767950211360584 | 0.20171994454278433 | 0.20172048830422296 | 0.20171994454278433 | 5.437614386261114e-07 | 0.0 | 0.12015570513938904 | 0.0 | -0.04902296204819046 | 0.04810145953693895 | |
| TN | 1662310.286777633 | 0.4002357039832469 | 0.22738473919225344 | 0.227546583678733 | 0.22738473917480234 | 0.00016184448647957317 | 1.7451096123721754e-11 | 269.03575473323804 | 2.900913660200795e-05 | -0.3422621053879919 | 0.3224569332672493 | |
| TX | 7925724.555441186 | 3.3211870638130594 | 0.2865618277162261 | 0.290596763884305 | 0.2864925567072443 | 0.004034936168078873 | 6.927100898185268e-05 | 31979.792666980487 | 549.0229368676567 | -2.6660098690287715 | 2.6497791320535207 | |
| UT | 962101.4703104672 | 0.17870525813408125 | 0.13882100218112534 | 0.13957455356294662 | 0.13868179935249797 | 0.000753551381821288 | 0.0001392028286273661 | 724.9928924047455 | 133.92724609376492 | -0.14389701227098337 | 0.14092183140254813 | |
| VA | 2003654.4960256969 | 0.3695392379292323 | 0.21401573281514533 | 0.21458878860602 | 0.21388989423897323 | 0.0005730557908746603 | 0.00012583857617209926 | 1148.2058118595746 | 252.1370289206988 | -0.3082503899463744 | 0.3046398042769084 | |
| VT | 125497.50217012578 | 0.07951920174340077 | 0.2062866375431428 | 0.2100699650877392 | 0.2062866375431428 | 0.0037833275445963988 | 0.0 | 474.7981567382832 | 0.0 | -0.06329539850535763 | 0.0610411200379675 | |
| WA | 1760287.6989703444 | 1.935070419837364 | 0.24714306327384566 | 0.2605971548200949 | 0.24585890620438783 | 0.013454091546249214 | 0.0012841570694578364 | 23683.07184968339 | 2260.4858929124357 | -1.578974716313693 | 1.5452288083286043 | |
| WI | 1316983.8377566077 | 0.4444222843993473 | 0.17345556111604366 | 0.17444255375870285 | 0.1733677890486371 | 0.0009869926426591957 | 8.777206740656629e-05 | 1299.8533583668436 | 115.59439418093133 | -0.3582071872818706 | 0.34847519022507917 | |
| WV | 379072.7853454807 | 0.15749364730713744 | 0.21574503807736106 | 0.21719787430718357 | 0.2152262121872637 | 0.0014528362298225073 | 0.0005188258900973575 | 550.7306762896447 | 196.67277526855355 | -0.12380070008073142 | 0.12153004893575325 | |
| WY | 137282.95519420505 | 0.04904928937802332 | 0.13565129631523193 | 0.1356585072942688 | 0.13525006679659562 | 7.210979036859078e-06 | 0.0004012295186363035 | 0.9899445120234766 | 55.08197402954011 | -0.04251130414996716 | 0.04068513909766804 |
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