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MaxGhenis/state_ui_child_poverty.ipynb

Created January 31, 2026 21:19
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Impact of UI on child poverty by state: repeal vs. doubling (PolicyEngine-US 2026, state-level microsims)
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state_ui_child_poverty_results.csv
state total_children total_ui_billions baseline_child_poverty_rate repeal_child_poverty_rate doubled_child_poverty_rate repeal_increase_pp doubled_reduction_pp repeal_children_into_poverty doubled_children_lifted repeal_net_income_change_billions doubled_net_income_change_billions
AL 1202650.6300404768 0.20334580025176704 0.19682392603794643 0.19710691134671182 0.19649718766514757 0.00028298530876538774 0.0003267383727988682 340.33245987889245 392.952109904959 -0.1717821577758353 0.17073778955456603
AK 175056.13950728183 0.0903962333692376 0.21431718288320262 0.21431718288320262 0.21431718288320262 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.06535990134695355 0.0727991005189191
AZ 1685809.130016325 0.4602573131932434 0.25393554256592926 0.2559557668361029 0.2537585565377616 0.0020202242701736206 0.0001769860281676805 3405.7125193392567 298.36466217040226 -0.3754060711609629 0.35769625264472643
AR 732073.7678552107 0.14320999353524078 0.18123011554273097 0.18235781003690613 0.18068902257264885 0.0011276944941751577 0.0005410929700821188 825.5555573403836 396.11996936798346 -0.11662832186838669 0.11344168673428413
CA 8988054.538800022 9.155268136615948 0.29532458282799096 0.30162471173343997 0.29243964115300686 0.0063001289054490095 0.0028849416749840984 56625.90220364618 25930.01311601416 -7.687854340099521 7.465531186398171
CO 1290230.7273362658 0.5900320453821395 0.16475055431486152 0.16626747596812105 0.16435133561041326 0.0015169216532595342 0.00039921870444825647 1957.1789279971797 515.0842394065157 -0.4599073123810685 0.45188357898899556
CT 776763.6104155292 0.8211252124254173 0.21102011840723078 0.21813392118045744 0.21023316906269654 0.007113802773226652 0.0007869493445342435 5525.743125915538 611.2736140745532 -0.6495314952980937 0.6202491798839798
DC 139332.83242663316 0.08318128697926229 0.21498446758687859 0.21770313421578413 0.21498446758687859 0.0027186666289055472 0.0 378.7995218291763 0.0 -0.06798402830296235 0.06682152262747475
DE 225678.4563994806 0.09648983567298158 0.20927847667145794 0.21124989667973731 0.20898725854701727 0.0019714200082793787 0.000291218124440662 444.90702438354145 65.72165679932046 -0.07621446369123663 0.07372200279472703
FL 4769900.065206092 1.3270832728799704 0.32486122320761235 0.3256693141896995 0.3244160385565304 0.0008080909820871729 0.0004451846510819535 3854.513228150061 2123.486296224561 -1.0950223887049337 1.0714428552911193
GA 2668403.7976327967 0.588906870713737 0.2505711551004414 0.2514347089077316 0.25016305466372635 0.000863553807290196 0.00040810043671507534 2304.3102588334195 1088.9767551461098 -0.4744885969687842 0.4602364022885087
HI 309099.0156309607 0.2699570155100037 0.23729963893633618 0.24138979610179545 0.2337809621293804 0.004090157165459268 0.0035186768069557783 1264.2635536193802 1087.619537353523 -0.20274403729098683 0.20266436362783802
IA 768072.1373110258 0.3226278084169104 0.15040559255046254 0.15188591105026325 0.1497326354158384 0.001480318499800709 0.000672957134624147 1136.991394042982 516.8796247094723 -0.2639253571252238 0.2517333284493637
ID 488434.92865129746 0.14786675060754473 0.140824476718541 0.1425812963934009 0.14059546939772782 0.001756819674859883 0.00022900732081318487 858.0920925433826 111.85517440201274 -0.11874520585595405 0.11531473512537131
IL 2898799.2429649658 1.8959320847474246 0.2225501582648133 0.22676893201727433 0.2220579063297603 0.004218773752461019 0.0004922519350530064 12229.37815987447 1426.9395366796944 -1.499323652386219 1.4425440385621457
IN 1675296.6298815827 0.355778572909399 0.19278249131093378 0.19411920612852077 0.19271523400546933 0.001336714817586987 6.725730546444653e-05 2239.3938290162537 112.67593717950342 -0.28991925320305373 0.2813575158303727
KS 721174.8136803242 0.15485422007861344 0.1494685368571491 0.14962052958637148 0.14898044605821636 0.00015199272922239437 0.0004880907989327221 109.61332817772424 351.99879097938646 -0.12544205431362676 0.12067523837351674
KY 1065433.374547214 0.36114224382739984 0.18890184305897265 0.19059440592863622 0.1884577479906471 0.001692562869663572 0.00044409506832554513 1803.3129698589757 473.1537072658611 -0.28692599462295426 0.2779121743810364
LA 1134012.0194222308 0.27089546026321354 0.24248436367286166 0.2431614831387961 0.24183105763564988 0.0006771194659344337 0.0006533060372117816 767.8616129544096 740.8568985592675 -0.2192973706597456 0.2094116994823436
MA 1457347.919335797 2.4188011337825612 0.23432415496099535 0.24306427704873396 0.23138306699433211 0.008740122087738611 0.0029410879666632306 12737.398739306707 4286.188428800209 -1.8978025640809928 1.8385603975726594
MD 1442745.1270782095 0.5873625943713037 0.2492676924401436 0.25082447522507445 0.24820641341594818 0.001556782784930849 0.0010612790241954217 2246.040776878227 1531.155140628262 -0.4614401391479247 0.4514791823714639
ME 263487.5172661381 0.1403829336312841 0.19211060838330665 0.19435361402412618 0.19211054751022563 0.0022430056408195287 6.087308102031841e-08 591.0039875134808 0.01603929698638417 -0.11044054361227694 0.10539802499792507
MI 2251463.790653994 1.2307367904858681 0.21748455229041933 0.2207505285343129 0.2172533772920387 0.0032659762438935758 0.00023117499838062883 7353.227254262522 520.4821381584815 -0.9688930219203333 0.9463126656067748
MN 1378158.4031145456 1.0428961427347447 0.1546585944633963 0.15814142634707204 0.1541873117396364 0.0034828318836757355 0.00047128272375990266 4799.894027122977 649.502245992421 -0.8191648972759188 0.7700783787022445
MO 1451418.8307794249 0.3215921706851125 0.18773824038425793 0.18868000332331128 0.18734143204203801 0.0009417629390533477 0.00039680834221991756 1366.8924638722046 575.9351001083546 -0.2620008789961781 0.2495636413275326
MS 718887.6861817541 0.13148217981289545 0.19964474263788742 0.20057128411303468 0.19962040009928192 0.0009265414751472578 2.434253860550406e-05 666.0792572200414 17.499551253900837 -0.1069334502267543 0.10553170436367255
MT 247133.007207261 0.12787498677784756 0.1786374011200733 0.18086072588475824 0.17807209936238058 0.0022233247646849252 0.0005653017576927322 549.4569350949615 139.7047233581553 -0.1026889340928633 0.09919220859834003
NC 2481944.5208605714 0.40890613774279017 0.22300140152643239 0.22329154406435667 0.2225922995722702 0.0002901425379242817 0.00040910195416218875 720.1176822697515 1015.368353606197 -0.3248791765047771 0.3184249908558844
ND 192883.94486008462 0.077859855751616 0.145750423412809 0.14578073289283544 0.14568610556993145 3.0309480026441404e-05 6.431784287755371e-05 5.84621207415796 12.405879259113656 -0.0653817239206461 0.0626127860770946
NE 506287.63118712086 0.08705346130796501 0.17071167127273235 0.17086208294684188 0.17071092786303146 0.00015041167410953515 7.434097008818252e-07 76.15157018780575 0.37637913646098536 -0.07082287562668976 0.0703300937344564
NH 272691.31441301794 0.1612741767858445 0.1956408454148181 0.19811785891707426 0.19564084040011984 0.0024770135022561535 5.014698267746809e-09 675.4600677490234 0.0013674646620165615 -0.13932879897056327 0.13384619600626535
NJ 2128087.727897618 2.6853639087412127 0.21055646784773618 0.21751378091544343 0.20839845310992638 0.006957313067707249 0.002158014737809799 14805.772558529527 4592.444680155229 -2.2503250206546377 2.1922166615404524
NM 478991.4751615741 0.2233678255998862 0.25704114079020385 0.2595864637290444 0.2570411225222703 0.0025453229388405774 1.826793355474976e-08 1219.187989237841 0.008750184441543206 -0.17816620471980035 0.16952613102914144
NV 727405.5718059521 0.4633757290546251 0.28412481076972634 0.2899510530205655 0.28400606544229134 0.005826242250839164 0.00011874532743499921 4238.04107595166 86.37601280214062 -0.3924751119873389 0.3810686663110962
NY 4225639.276017142 3.521945643864442 0.2744501075766828 0.2793810427684279 0.27276030389603045 0.004930935191745089 0.0016898036806523575 20836.35341373317 7140.500801722931 -2.7141078132310414 2.6052184869905015
OH 2733370.119419235 0.9836366266703656 0.19788860407282727 0.19913527601664766 0.1976925925680425 0.0012466719438203877 0.00019601150478476548 3407.6158399569426 535.7719902410784 -0.7986618066681604 0.7842271353679009
OK 1023852.2601124952 0.2657748627974801 0.21955321966842856 0.22079392078867596 0.2190552329715945 0.001240701120247406 0.0004979866968340685 1270.2946460894113 509.864805059517 -0.2103618986949487 0.20244219176454356
OR 879785.0487799975 0.6473884878626265 0.25234597323582647 0.25660169585656384 0.2517724984524852 0.004255722620737368 0.0005734747833412435 3744.121133479564 504.53454023597436 -0.49470820582786346 0.47405425223027586
PA 2843147.3518972876 2.0234345616782234 0.2165075720003143 0.2215715595832518 0.21625162723001234 0.005063987582937496 0.00025594477030196905 14397.662886469489 727.6886959160029 -1.694803376653566 1.6568565435831937
RI 222180.86815058364 0.29232266354158715 0.227004104970129 0.2366591339448361 0.22679932559961968 0.009655028974707103 0.00020477937050930595 2145.1627196194636 45.49805831908762 -0.23599275240306206 0.22663995165503378
SC 1211730.3729222403 0.22686630206302053 0.2054182404445394 0.2056739129464381 0.20514940225483924 0.0002556725018987016 0.0002688381897001657 309.8061360716759 325.7593998611218 -0.1847144248937156 0.18036741273530724
SD 220971.3609758336 0.05767950211360584 0.20171994454278433 0.20172048830422296 0.20171994454278433 5.437614386261114e-07 0.0 0.12015570513938904 0.0 -0.04902296204819046 0.04810145953693895
TN 1662310.286777633 0.4002357039832469 0.22738473919225344 0.227546583678733 0.22738473917480234 0.00016184448647957317 1.7451096123721754e-11 269.03575473323804 2.900913660200795e-05 -0.3422621053879919 0.3224569332672493
TX 7925724.555441186 3.3211870638130594 0.2865618277162261 0.290596763884305 0.2864925567072443 0.004034936168078873 6.927100898185268e-05 31979.792666980487 549.0229368676567 -2.6660098690287715 2.6497791320535207
UT 962101.4703104672 0.17870525813408125 0.13882100218112534 0.13957455356294662 0.13868179935249797 0.000753551381821288 0.0001392028286273661 724.9928924047455 133.92724609376492 -0.14389701227098337 0.14092183140254813
VA 2003654.4960256969 0.3695392379292323 0.21401573281514533 0.21458878860602 0.21388989423897323 0.0005730557908746603 0.00012583857617209926 1148.2058118595746 252.1370289206988 -0.3082503899463744 0.3046398042769084
VT 125497.50217012578 0.07951920174340077 0.2062866375431428 0.2100699650877392 0.2062866375431428 0.0037833275445963988 0.0 474.7981567382832 0.0 -0.06329539850535763 0.0610411200379675
WA 1760287.6989703444 1.935070419837364 0.24714306327384566 0.2605971548200949 0.24585890620438783 0.013454091546249214 0.0012841570694578364 23683.07184968339 2260.4858929124357 -1.578974716313693 1.5452288083286043
WI 1316983.8377566077 0.4444222843993473 0.17345556111604366 0.17444255375870285 0.1733677890486371 0.0009869926426591957 8.777206740656629e-05 1299.8533583668436 115.59439418093133 -0.3582071872818706 0.34847519022507917
WV 379072.7853454807 0.15749364730713744 0.21574503807736106 0.21719787430718357 0.2152262121872637 0.0014528362298225073 0.0005188258900973575 550.7306762896447 196.67277526855355 -0.12380070008073142 0.12153004893575325
WY 137282.95519420505 0.04904928937802332 0.13565129631523193 0.1356585072942688 0.13525006679659562 7.210979036859078e-06 0.0004012295186363035 0.9899445120234766 55.08197402954011 -0.04251130414996716 0.04068513909766804
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