trump_tariff_plot.R

download.file("https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/country.xlsx", dest = "balance.xlsx")
library(readxl)
library(dplyr)
library(ggplot2); theme_set(theme_bw())
library(ggrepel)

bdat <- read_excel("balance.xlsx") |>
    filter(year == 2024) |>
    select(countrycode=CTY_CODE, country=CTYNAME,imports=IYR,exports=EYR)

download.file("https://gist.githubusercontent.com/jmcastagnetto/eb3c860a6877b5b97adb18f8ececbf5f/raw/377058a18d8c731e0e7a1beae8cdef0b90d44096/tariffs.csv", dest = "tariffs.csv")

tdat <- read.csv("tariffs.csv")

comb <- right_join(bdat, tdat, by = "country") |> arrange(desc(imports)) |>
    mutate(t2 = 1-exports/imports)

ggplot(comb,
       aes(t2*100,  tariffs_charged)) +
    geom_function(fun = function(x) pmax(x, 10), colour = "red") +
    geom_point(size =3) +
    expand_limits(y=0) +
    geom_text_repel(data = filter(comb, t2 > 0.3),
                    aes(label = country)) +
    labs(y = "tariff charged (%)", x = "(1-exports/imports)*100") +
    geom_vline(xintercept = 10, lty = 2)