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carlislerainey/fit.R

Last active February 12, 2025 11:08
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casualties example
Raw
fit.R
# load packages
library(tidyverse)
library(brms)
library(marginaleffects)
# load fake data that should resemble final data set (these are "big" effects--effects might be smaller than this)
toy <- read_csv("https://gist.githubusercontent.com/carlislerainey/ba2c556f322135fe439ed9639975c922/raw/bc0ab6fecc23762d8da736eecb888bd1e4cbc92a/toy.csv") %>%
glimpse()
# fit model
fit <- brm(fake_outcome ~ s(casualties) + success, data = toy,
chains = 4,
cores = 4,
iter = 2000)
# make {marginaleffects} go brrrrr
grid <- toy %>%
select(success, casualties) %>%
glimpse()
p <- predictions(fit, newdata = grid) %>%
glimpse()
# make {ggplot2} go brrrrr
ggplot(p, aes(x = casualties,
y = estimate,
ymin = conf.low,
ymax = conf.high,
color = success)) +
geom_errorbar(width = 0) +
geom_point()
Raw
toy.csv
success casualties fake_outcome
Failure 21 7
Success 0 1
Failure 2 4
Success 0 4
Failure 93 1
Failure 2 3
Success 0 3
Failure 8 4
Failure 7 4
Failure 1 4
Failure 4 1
Failure 0 6
Failure 74 3
Failure 0 2
Failure 3 1
Failure 6 6
Failure 0 1
Failure 79 1
Success 0 1
Success 0 5
Failure 10 4
Failure 0 1
Failure 0 1
Success 0 6
Failure 13 3
Success 0 1
Failure 9 2
Failure 10 1
Failure 1 6
Failure 0 6
Success 0 3
Success 0 7
Failure 4 1
Failure 0 5
Success 0 2
Success 0 6
Success 0 4
Failure 27 3
Success 0 4
Failure 3 1
Failure 5 1
Failure 7 2
Failure 0 6
Failure 0 3
Success 0 3
Failure 0 4
Failure 0 4
Failure 0 1
Success 0 3
Failure 10 6
Success 0 4
Failure 97 1
Success 0 1
Success 0 6
Success 0 6
Failure 65 3
Success 0 1
Success 0 4
Success 0 2
Failure 7 6
Failure 5 2
Success 0 4
Failure 17 2
Success 0 6
Failure 0 1
Failure 0 5
Failure 0 2
Success 0 5
Success 0 1
Success 0 7
Failure 63 3
Success 0 3
Failure 0 7
Failure 63 1
Success 0 3
Success 0 2
Failure 82 6
Failure 20 4
Failure 63 1
Success 0 7
Failure 2 2
Failure 0 3
Failure 0 4
Success 0 4
Failure 1 4
Failure 7 3
Failure 60 1
Success 0 3
Failure 0 3
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Success 0 4
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Failure 0 3
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Success 0 2
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Failure 1 1
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Failure 76 2
Failure 0 3
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Failure 92 1
Failure 0 3
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Failure 0 1
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Failure 0 1
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