WSL CS Odds Predictions (World Surf League - Challenger Series)

wsl.php

<PRE><?php
ini_set('display_errors', 1);
ini_set('display_startup_errors', 1);
error_reporting(E_ERROR);
ini_set('max_execution_time', 0);

?>
 __          _______ _                 ___   ___ ___  ____
 \ \        / / ____| |               |__ \ / _ \__ \|___ \
  \ \  /\  / / (___ | |       ______     ) | | | | ) | __) |
   \ \/  \/ / \___ \| |      |______|   / /| | | |/ / |__ <
    \  /\  /  ____) | |____            / /_| |_| / /_ ___) |
     \/  \/  |_____/|______|          |____|\___/____|____/
    ____ _           _ _                                _____           _
  / ____| |         | | |                              / ____|         (_)
 | |    | |__   __ _| | | ___ _ __   __ _  ___ _ __   | (___   ___ _ __ _  ___  ___
 | |    | '_ \ / _` | | |/ _ \ '_ \ / _` |/ _ \ '__|   \___ \ / _ \ '__| |/ _ \/ __|
 | |____| | | | (_| | | |  __/ | | | (_| |  __/ |      ____) |  __/ |  | |  __/\__ \
  \_____|_| |_|\__,_|_|_|\___|_| |_|\__, |\___|_|     |_____/ \___|_|  |_|\___||___/
                                     __/ |
                                    |___/
WSL CS 2023 - World Surf League - Challenger Series - Odds to make the CT based on current points and remaining events
View code at: <a href="https://gist.github.com/joefaron/b5018373830a7a140c27f90536f3da5b">https://gist.github.com/joefaron/b5018373830a7a140c27f90536f3da5b</a>
View results at: <a href="https://joefaron.com/wsl-odds-to-make-the-ct-2023/">https://joefaron.com/wsl-odds-to-make-the-ct-2023/</a>

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Original work by Joe Faron

<?php
// event place to points array, from typical event like: https://www.worldsurfleague.com/events/2023/cs/144/ballito-pro/prizes
$original_place_to_points = array(
    1 => 10000, 2 => 7800, 3 => 6085, 5 => 4745, 9 => 3320,
    17 => 1900, 25 => 1700, 33 => 700, 49 => 600, 65 => 300,
    73 => 250, 81=>0
);

// data from: https://www.worldsurfleague.com/athletes/tour/mcs?year=2023
$surfers_text=<<<EOM
Rank	Name	1	2	3	4	Total Points
1	"Cole Houshmand
United States"	700	10,000	10,000	3,320	24,020
2	"Jacob Willcox
Australia"	4,745	7,800	4,745	3,320	20,610
3	"Crosby Colapinto
United States"	6,085	1,700	700	7,800	16,285
4	"Eli Hanneman
Hawaii"	300	3,320	1,700	10,000	15,320
5	"Frederico Morais
Portugal"	1,700	4,745	7,800	700	14,945
6	"Imaikalani deVault
Hawaii"	7,800	3,320	1,700	1,700	14,520
7	"Samuel Pupo
Brazil"	10,000	700	700	1,700	13,100
8	"Morgan Cibilic
Australia"	1,700	4,745	3,320	3,320	13,085
9	"Jackson Baker
Australia"	1,700	6,085	3,320	1,700	12,805
10	"Kade Matson
United States"	600	4,745	6,085	700	12,130
11	"Jett Schilling
United States"	6,085	1,900	700	3,320	12,005
12	"Joan Duru
France"	700	3,320	6,085	1,700	11,805
13	"Nolan Rapoza
United States"	-	-	4,745	6,085	10,830
14	"Michael Rodrigues
Brazil"	4,745	700	1,900	3,320	10,665
15	"Jake Marshall
United States"	700	1,700	3,320	4,745	10,465
15	"Jadson Andre
Brazil"	4,745	1,700	700	3,320	10,465
15	"George Pittar
Australia"	1,700	700	3,320	4,745	10,465
18	"Marco Mignot
France"	700	6,085	1,900	600	9,285
19	"Mateus Herdy
Brazil"	1,900	700	1,900	4,745	9,245
20	"Mikey McDonagh
Australia"	3,320	3,320	1,900	700	9,240
21	"Reef Heazlewood
Australia"	1,900	1,700	600	4,745	8,945
22	"Kauli Vaast
France"	700	600	4,745	1,900	7,945
23	"Joel Vaughan
Australia"	700	1,900	3,320	1,900	7,820
24	"Jorgann Couzinet
France"	4,745	600	1,700	700	7,745
25	"Deivid Silva
Brazil"	600	1,700	1,900	3,320	7,520
26	"Alejo Muniz
Brazil"	700	700	4,745	700	6,845
27	"Adin Masencamp
South Africa"	3,320	1,900	700	700	6,620
28	"Timothe Bisso
France"	3,320	600*	1,900	700	6,520
29	"Lucca Mesinas
Peru"	1,900	600	3,320	600	6,420
30	"Jackson Bunch
Hawaii"	3,320	600	1,700	600	6,220
31	"Nat Young
United States"	1,900	700	1,700	1,900	6,200
32	"CTKanoa Igarashi
Japan"	-	-	-	6,085	6,085
33	"Dylan Moffat
Australia"	1,700	1,900	1,700	700	6,000
34	"Marc Lacomare
France"	600	4,745	300	250	5,895
35	"Maxime Huscenot
France"	700	3,320	700	700	5,420
35	"Edgard Groggia
Brazil"	3,320	700	700	700	5,420
37	"Eithan Osborne
United States"	600	3,320	700	600	5,220
37	"Justin Becret
France"	700	3,320	600	600	5,220
39	"Ezekiel Lau
Hawaii"	1,900	700	600	1,900	5,100
40	"Lucas Silveira
Brazil"	1,900	1,900	600	600	5,000
40	"Carlos Munoz
Costa Rica"	700	700	1,700	1,900	5,000
42	"Luke Thompson
South Africa"	300	1,900	600	1,900	4,700
42	"Miguel Tudela
Peru"	1,700	1,700	600	700	4,700
44	"Alister Reginato
Australia"	250	700	300	3,320	4,570
45	"Ian Gouveia
Brazil"	250	700	1,900	1,700	4,550
46	"Dimitri Poulos
United States"	600	300	3,320	300	4,520
46	"Evan Geiselman
United States"	3,320	600	600	-*	4,520
48	"Leo Casal
Brazil"	1,700	250	600	1,700	4,250
49	"Rafael Teixeira
Brazil"	300	300	1,700	1,900	4,200
50	"Daniel Emslie
South Africa"	250	250	3,320	250	4,070
51	"Kolohe Andino
United States"	600	700	1,900	600	3,800
51	"Kalani Ball
Australia"	600	1,900	700	600	3,800
51	"Te Kehukehu Butler
New Zealand"	600	1,900	600	700	3,800
54	"Jarvis Earle
Australia"	1,900	600	600	600	3,700
55	"Taj Lindblad
United States"	-	3,320	-	250	3,570
56	"CTRio Waida
Indonesia"	3,320	-	-	-	3,320
56	"CTJoao Chianca
Brazil"	3,320	-	-	-	3,320
58	"Hiroto Ohhara
Japan"	1,700	600	700	300	3,300
59	"Keanu Asing
Hawaii"	1,900	-	600	700	3,200
60	"Shion Crawford
Hawaii"	600	300	300	1,900	3,100
60	"Ketut Agus
Indonesia"	700	1,700	700	-	3,100
60	"Conner Coffin
United States"	700	700	-	1,700	3,100
63	"Sheldon Simkus
Australia"	600	300	250	1,700	2,850
64	"Brodi Sale
Hawaii"	700	700	600	700	2,700
65	"Jordan Lawler
Australia"	300	300	600	700	1,900
66	"Billy Stairmand
New Zealand"	250	600	700	300	1,850
66	"Josh Burke
Barbados"	700	300	600	250	1,850
68	"Kian Martin
Sweden"	300	600	600	250	1,750
69	"Mihimana Braye
French Polynesia"	-	1,700*	-	-	1,700
70	"Oney Anwar
Indonesia"	700	600	-	300	1,600
71	"Joshua Moniz
Hawaii"	300	700	250	300	1,550
72	"Guillermo Satt
Chile"	300	250	700	250	1,500
73	"John Mark Tokong
Philippines"	600	300	250	300	1,450
73	"Tiago Carrique
France"	300	250	300	600	1,450
75	"Connor Slijpen
South Africa"	250	600	300	250	1,400
75	"Jabe Swierkocki
United States"	250	250	300	600	1,400
75	"Ryan Kainalo
Brazil"	600	250	250	300	1,400
78	"Kai Martin
Hawaii"	-	600	700	-	1,300
78	"Gatien Delahaye
France"	-	-	700	600	1,300
80	"Michael Dunphy
United States"	-	600	-	600	1,200
80	"Adur Amatriain
Basque Country"	600	600	-	-	1,200
82	"Daiki Tanaka
Japan"	250	250	300	300	1,100
83	"Sheldon Paishon
Hawaii"	-	600	-	250	850
83	"Joshe Faulkner
South Africa"	-	-	250	600	850
85	"John Mel
United States"	-	-	-	700*	700
85	"CTRyan Callinan
Australia"	700	-	-	-	700
85	"Krystian Kymerson
Brazil"	-	-	700	-	700
85	"Soli Bailey
Australia"	-	700	-	-	700
89	"CTConnor O'Leary
Australia"	600	-	-	-	600
89	"CTCaio Ibelli
Brazil"	600	-	-	-	600
89	"CTLeonardo Fioravanti
Italy"	-	-	-	600	600
89	"Teva Bouchgua
Morocco"	-	600	-	-	600
89	"Joh Azuchi
Japan"	-	-	600	-	600
89	"CTCallum Robson
Australia"	600	-	-	-	600
89	"Marlon Harrison
Australia"	-	-	-	600*	600
96	"Luke Van Wyk
South Africa"	-	-	300	-	300
96	"Kyuss King
Australia"	-	300	-	-	300
98	"Saxon Reber
Australia"	-	250	-	-	250
98	"Thomas Lindhorst
South Africa"	-	-	250	-	250
98	"Cooper Davies
Australia"	250	-	-	-	250
EOM;
if($_POST['surfers_text']){
    $surfers_text=$_POST['surfers_text'];
}
echo "<form method='post' action='?'><textarea rows='5' cols='70' name='surfers_text'>$surfers_text</textarea><BR><input type='submit' value='Submit New CSV Results'></form>";

function parseSurfers($input) {
    $stream = fopen('php://temp', 'r+');
    fwrite($stream, $input);
    rewind($stream);

    $result = [];

    // skip the header
    fgetcsv($stream, 0, "\t");

    while ($row = fgetcsv($stream, 0, "\t")) {
        $nameAndCountry = explode("\n", $row[1]);
        $name = trim($nameAndCountry[0]);

        $eventScores = array_slice($row, 2, 4); // extract columns 2 through 5
        $eventScores = array_map(function ($value) {
            $value=str_replace(',', '', $value);
            if(!is_numeric($value))$value=0;
            return $value; // remove comma for thousands for accurate arithmetic operations
        }, $eventScores);

        $result[$name] = $eventScores;
    }

    fclose($stream);
    return $result;
}

$surfers=parseSurfers($surfers_text);

//take only first X surfers... (for now)
$take_only_top=80;
$num_simulations=1000;
$events_total=6;
foreach($surfers as $name=>$scores){
    $events_left=$events_total-count($scores);break;//1st place person should have results for all events
}
$events_left=2;
$start=microtime(1);

$surfers = array_slice($surfers, 0, $take_only_top);

// fill out place array, so each place has point value
$place_to_points = [];
$prev_value = end($original_place_to_points); // default to the last value
for ($i = count($surfers); $i >= 1; $i--) {
    if (isset($original_place_to_points[$i])) {
        $prev_value = $original_place_to_points[$i];
    }
    $place_to_points[$i] = $prev_value;
}
ksort($place_to_points);
$results = runSimulation2($surfers, $place_to_points, $num_simulations,$events_left);

echo "\n$num_simulations simulations - took ".number_format(microtime(1)-$start,2)." secs\n";
echo "percentage of time surfer (in current top $take_only_top) placed in final position, with all having equally randomized scores in $events_left more event(s).\n\n";

echo "Event Place\tPoints\n";
foreach ($original_place_to_points as $place => $points) {
    echo "$place\t\t$points\n";
}
?>
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="//cdn.datatables.net/1.11.5/css/jquery.dataTables.css">
<script type="text/javascript" charset="utf8" src="//code.jquery.com/jquery-3.5.1.js"></script>
<script type="text/javascript" charset="utf8" src="//cdn.datatables.net/1.11.5/js/jquery.dataTables.js"></script>
<table id="sortableTable" class="display">
    <thead>
        <tr>
            <th>Rank</th>
            <th>Name</th>
        <?php foreach ($results as $name => $odds):  foreach ($odds as $key=>$score): ?>
                <th>Place <?php echo $key ?></th>
            <?php endforeach; break;  endforeach;

        for ($event_num = 0; $event_num < 6; $event_num++): ?>
            <th>Event <?php echo $event_num + 1; ?></th>
        <?php endfor;  ?>
            <th>Total Pts</th>
        </tr>
    </thead>
    <tbody>
        <?php
        $rank=0;foreach ($results as $name => $odds): $rank++;?>
        <tr>
            <td><?php echo $rank ?></td>
            <td><?php echo $name ?></td>
            <?php foreach ($odds as $key=>$chance): ?>
                <td><?php echo $chance ?></td>
            <?php endforeach;

            $pts=0;
            for ($event_num = 0; $event_num < 6; $event_num++): $pts+=$surfers[$name][$event_num];?>
            <th><?php echo number_format($surfers[$name][$event_num]) ?></th>
        <?php endfor;  ?>
            <th><?php echo number_format($pts)?></th>

        </tr>
        <?php endforeach; ?>
    </tbody>
    </table>

<script>
$(document).ready(function() {
    $('#sortableTable').DataTable({
        order: [],  // Start with no sorting.
        pageLength: 50,  // Show 50 rows by default
        columnDefs: [{
            targets: '_all',  // Apply to all columns
            orderSequence: ['desc', 'asc']  // First click will sort descending, second will sort ascending
        }]
    });
});
</script>

<?php
function simulateEventForAllSurfers($place_to_points_filled, $surfers) {
    $shuffledSurfers = $surfers;
    shuffle($shuffledSurfers); // This will randomly order the surfers
    $eventResults = [];
    foreach ($shuffledSurfers as $index => $surfer) {
        $place = $index + 1; // Because array index starts at 0
        $eventResults[$surfer] = $place_to_points_filled[$place];
    }
    return $eventResults;
}
function runSimulation2($surfers, $place_to_points, $num_simulations,$events_left) {

    $placeCount = array_fill_keys(array_keys($surfers), array_fill(1, 10, 0));

    for ($i = 0; $i < $num_simulations; $i++) {
        $tempSurfers = $surfers;
        for ($j = 0; $j < $events_left; $j++) {
            $eventResults = simulateEventForAllSurfers($place_to_points, array_keys($surfers));

            foreach ($eventResults as $name => $points) {
                $tempSurfers[$name][] = $points;
            }
        }

        foreach($tempSurfers as $name => $points){
            $tempSurfersSum[$name] = array_sum($points);
        }
        arsort($tempSurfersSum);

        $top10 = array_slice($tempSurfersSum, 0, 10, true);

        $position = 1;
        foreach ($top10 as $name => $points) {
            $placeCount[$name][$position]++;
            if ($position === 10) {
                $tenth_place_sum += $points;
            }
            $position++;
        }
    }

    $odds = [];
    foreach ($placeCount as $name => $counts) {
        for ($position = 1; $position <= 10; $position++) {
            $odds[$name][$position] = (number_format(($counts[$position] / $num_simulations) * 100, 3) + 0) . "%";
        }
    }

    echo "10th place average total points after all events: " . number_format($tenth_place_sum / $num_simulations,0) . "\n";

    return $odds;
}