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@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v27-fresh-confirmatory-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 11:27
C3 V27 minimal-system Opus-judged preregistration
{
"protocol":"held-out-paired-c3-v27-minimal-system",
"registered_content_at_utc":"2026-07-16T11:27:05Z",
"status":"prepared before any V27 inference",
"estimand":"compact C3 treatment package versus compact standardized neutral baseline under a minimal isolated agent system prompt",
"objective":{"valid_pair_count":3,"valid_arm_count":6,"required_surface_coverage_lift_target":0.2,"blocking_false_claim_lift_max":0},
"held_out_design":{"private_cases_sha256":"a6a5bbaa85c09301a60417ddd313aa555c72795b751a76743c0ca21ac84c37fe","private_protocol_sha256":"9307d30f4232e7ba02e7a00bfdcd0ee2d25e5e33b7692efba3227a7c115c3a38","historical_or_exposed_case_reuse_count":0,"independent_source_review_completed":true,"public_project_specific_field_count":0},
"arms":{"agent":"claude-haiku-4-5 low","condition_order_seed":4271,"authorized_discovery_calls":5,"supervisor_observed_tool_event_ceiling":6,"max_total_tokens_per_arm":60000,"transport_output_byte_ceiling":262144,"answer_limit_words":350,"max_cost_usd_per_arm":
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v26-fresh-confirmatory-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 11:22
C3 V26 transport-corrected Opus-judged preregistration
{
"protocol":"held-out-paired-c3-v26-transport-corrected",
"registered_content_at_utc":"2026-07-16T11:21:37Z",
"status":"prepared before any V26 inference",
"estimand":"compact C3 treatment package versus compact standardized neutral baseline",
"objective":{"valid_pair_count":3,"valid_arm_count":6,"required_surface_coverage_lift_target":0.2,"blocking_false_claim_lift_max":0},
"held_out_design":{"private_cases_sha256":"af381211044cf901fd455cb59d31ad59c4941e7576731dbac0fe9105afed5309","private_protocol_sha256":"a08f35246176c20755499b46ff104ea4da7e7e3d1187781037d2df6e99ab9aa3","historical_or_exposed_case_reuse_count":0,"independent_source_review_completed":true,"public_project_specific_field_count":0},
"arms":{"agent":"claude-haiku-4-5 low","condition_order_seed":4261,"authorized_discovery_calls":5,"supervisor_observed_tool_event_ceiling":6,"max_total_tokens_per_arm":70000,"transport_output_byte_ceiling":262144,"answer_limit_words":350,"max_cost_usd_per_arm":0.052,"timeout_seconds_per_arm":240,"res
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v25-fresh-confirmatory-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 11:17
C3 V25 final-budget Opus-judged preregistration
{
"protocol":"held-out-paired-c3-v25-final-budget",
"registered_content_at_utc":"2026-07-16T11:16:53Z",
"status":"prepared before any V25 inference",
"estimand":"compact C3 treatment package versus compact standardized neutral baseline",
"objective":{"valid_pair_count":3,"valid_arm_count":6,"required_surface_coverage_lift_target":0.2,"blocking_false_claim_lift_max":0},
"held_out_design":{
"private_cases_sha256":"ee64d899503e787e38915dcd7ad99499d1bd99a27eafa3952970231b84918297",
"private_protocol_sha256":"e7577d43e6da014fb13f8774024c4e88052c62aa6050a81c9695154ef01e6443",
"historical_or_exposed_case_reuse_count":0,
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v24-fresh-confirmatory-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 11:11
C3 V24 Opus-judged fresh paired confirmatory preregistration
{
"protocol": "held-out-paired-c3-v24-opus-judged",
"registered_content_at_utc": "2026-07-16T11:10:36Z",
"status": "prepared before any V24 arm or judge inference",
"estimand": "compact C3 treatment package versus compact standardized neutral baseline",
"objective": {
"valid_pair_count": 3,
"valid_arm_count": 6,
"required_surface_coverage_lift_target": 0.2,
"blocking_false_claim_lift_max": 0
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v23-fresh-confirmatory-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 11:04
C3 V23 fresh paired confirmatory preregistration
{
"protocol": "held-out-paired-c3-v23-micro",
"registered_content_at_utc": "2026-07-16T11:02:43Z",
"status": "prepared before any V23 arm or judge inference",
"estimand": "compact C3 treatment package versus compact standardized neutral baseline",
"objective": {
"valid_pair_count": 3,
"valid_arm_count": 6,
"required_surface_coverage_lift_target": 0.2,
"blocking_false_claim_lift_max": 0
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v20-fresh-confirmatory-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 09:24
C3 fresh held-out paired evaluation protocol v20
{
"protocol": "held-out-paired-c3-v20",
"registered_at_utc": "2026-07-16T09:24:16Z",
"status": "prepared before any v20 inference",
"supersedes": {
"protocol": "held-out-paired-c3-v19",
"reason": "V19 stopped on its first invalid treatment arm. The task-level treatment text had competing manual and bootstrap entrypoints. V20 freezes a single bootstrap entrypoint.",
"v19_valid_pair_count": 0,
"v19_judge_count": 0,
"v19_accounted_cost_usd": 0.272794
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v19-fresh-confirmatory-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 09:16
C3 fresh held-out paired evaluation protocol v19
{
"protocol": "held-out-paired-c3-v19",
"registered_at_utc": "2026-07-16T09:15:59Z",
"status": "prepared before any v19 arm or judge inference",
"objective": {
"fresh_case_family_count": 3,
"valid_pair_count": 3,
"valid_arm_count": 6,
"agent_model": "gpt-5.6-sol",
"agent_effort": "low",
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v17-held-out-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 08:01
C3 held-out paired evaluation v17 preregistration
{
"protocol": "held-out-paired-c3-v17",
"registered_at_utc": "2026-07-16T08:00:35Z",
"status": "registered after case-loader and screening-scorer preflight and before any v17 inference",
"supersedes": {
"protocols": ["held-out-paired-c3-v12", "held-out-paired-c3-v13", "held-out-paired-c3-v14", "held-out-paired-c3-v15", "held-out-paired-c3-v16"],
"reason": "V12 and v13 stopped on schema checks. V14 and v15 stopped on execution ceilings without retained answers. V16 stopped after the legacy screening scorer rejected new rubric dimensions. V17 fixes only the non-primary scorer and retains the same held-out cases, rubric commitments, arm ceilings, conditions, judge rule, analysis, and seeds.",
"cumulative_prior_cost_or_reserve_usd": 1.06912
},
"objective": {
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v16-held-out-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 07:56
C3 held-out paired evaluation v16 preregistration
{
"protocol": "held-out-paired-c3-v16",
"registered_at_utc": "2026-07-16T07:55:48Z",
"status": "registered_before any v16 arm or judge inference",
"supersedes": {
"protocols": ["held-out-paired-c3-v12", "held-out-paired-c3-v13", "held-out-paired-c3-v14", "held-out-paired-c3-v15"],
"reason": "V12 and v13 stopped before inference on schema checks. V14 produced no retained answer after a tool-call kill. V15 produced no retained answer after crossing its token wall. V16 changes only operational token and cost ceilings; held-out cases, private rubric commitments, conditions, judge rule, analysis, and seeds remain fixed.",
"prior_successor_study_cost_usd": {
"v14_conservative_reserve": 0.4,
"v15_measured": 0.31912,
@lagz0ne
lagz0ne / protocol-v15-held-out-preregistration.json
Created July 16, 2026 07:51
C3 held-out paired evaluation v15 preregistration
{
"protocol": "held-out-paired-c3-v15",
"registered_at_utc": "2026-07-16T07:50:56Z",
"status": "registered_after_case-loader preflight and before any v15 arm or judge inference",
"supersedes": {
"protocols": ["held-out-paired-c3-v12", "held-out-paired-c3-v13", "held-out-paired-c3-v14"],
"reason": "V12 and v13 stopped before inference on harness schema validation. V14 produced no answer because its first control arm was killed after crossing an unrealistically low six-tool-call wall. V15 predeclares ten tool calls and 300000 tokens without changing cases, rubrics, conditions, or analysis.",
"v12_v13_inference_call_count": 0,
"v14_completed_answer_count": 0,
"v14_protocol_deviation_count": 3,