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All Classes - Logical Data v0
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classes-v0.json
[
{
"catalogType": "definitions",
"items": [
{
"key": "Def_0to1Innovation",
"title": "0 to 1 Innovation",
"definition": "Intensive progress involves going from 0 to 1 (not simply the 1 to n of globalization).",
"lines": [
"assay3:41",
"assay5:24-25"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3",
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_1toNReplication",
"title": "1 to N Replication",
"definition": "Horizontal progress...involves...1 to n of globalization.",
"lines": [
"assay3:36",
"assay3:41",
"assay5:25-26"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3",
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_AspergersApproach",
"title": "Asperger’s Approach for Internet Businesses",
"definition": "Web businesses can take the Asperger’s approach where they can succeed without having to talk to anyone.",
"lines": [
"assay9:300-301"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_AverageCustomerLifetime",
"title": "Average Customer Lifetime",
"definition": "Average customer lifetime, which is 1 / (1-r)",
"lines": [
"assay7:36"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_AverageRevenuePerUser",
"title": "Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)",
"definition": "Average revenue per user (per month), or ARPU",
"lines": [
"assay7:34"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Brand",
"title": "Brand",
"definition": "people do not see products as interchangeable and are thus willing to pay more.",
"lines": [
"assay4:190-192"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Bubble",
"title": "Defining Economic Bubbles",
"definition": "Bubbles arise when there is (1) widespread, intense belief that’s (2) not true.",
"lines": [
"assay2:304-305"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_CalculusMetaphor",
"title": "Calculus Metaphor for Deterministic Planning",
"definition": "The calculus metaphor asks whether and how we can figure out exactly what’s going to happen.",
"lines": [
"assay3:91-92"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Carry",
"title": "Carry",
"definition": "The 20% cut of the gains beyond the original investment in the 2-and-20 model.",
"lines": [
"assay6:34-35"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_CleantechInvestmentDrivers",
"title": "Cleantech Investment Drivers",
"definition": "Many of the investment dollars poured into cleantech weren’t simply seeking good returns, but were also driven by various environmental and social factors.",
"lines": [
"assay9:231-234"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_CoaseTheoremCompanies",
"title": "Coase Theorem and Company Existence",
"definition": "Companies exist because they optimally address internal and external coordination costs.",
"lines": [
"assay3:121-122"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_CollapseTheoryFuture",
"title": "Collapse/Destruction Theory of Future Progress",
"definition": "Third is collapse/destruction. Some technological advance will do us in.",
"lines": [
"assay3:114"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ConvergenceTheoryFuture",
"title": "Convergence Theory of Future Progress",
"definition": "First is convergence; starting with the industrial revolution, we saw a quick rise in progress, but technology will decelerate and growth will become asymptotic.",
"lines": [
"assay3:107-109"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Control",
"title": "Control",
"definition": "Who exercises control over the company in a formal sense. Control lies with the various people you put on your board, most of whom really don’t know your business that well.",
"lines": [
"assay5:131-133"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ContrarianAndRight",
"title": "Contrarian and Right Founding Strategy",
"definition": "A great founding strategy is thus contrarian and right. That ensures that, at least for an important initial time, no one is coming after you.",
"lines": [
"assay11:227-230"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ContrarianTruthQuestion",
"title": "The Contrarian Truth Question (Intellectual)",
"definition": "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?",
"lines": [
"assay3:204"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_CostPerCustomerAcquisition",
"title": "Cost Per Customer Acquisition (CPA)",
"definition": "Cost per customer acquisition, or CPA",
"lines": [
"assay7:37"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_CostPlusAccounting",
"title": "Cost-Plus Accounting",
"definition": "...contractors charged for a rocket. Cushy profit margins were built in. Since people had lots of incentives to inflate costs, things became increasingly expensive.",
"lines": [
"assay10:166-168"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Culture",
"title": "Culture as Pervasive Conversation",
"definition": "Culture is like an extended dinner conversation; lots of people are talking, some lightly, some angrily, some loudly, some in whispers. As soon as you’re able, you listen in. You try to figure out what that conversation is about.",
"lines": [
"assay2:2-6"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_CustomerLifetimeValue",
"title": "Customer Lifetime Value (CLV)",
"definition": "Customer lifetime value, or CLV... equals the product of ARPU, gross margin, and average customer lifetime.",
"lines": [
"assay7:33",
"assay7:39"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_CyclicalTheoryFuture",
"title": "Cyclical Theory of Future Progress",
"definition": "Second, there is the cyclical theory. Technological progress moves in cycles; advances are made, retrenchments ensue. Repeat.",
"lines": [
"assay3:110-111"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_DataRoom",
"title": "Data Room",
"definition": "Put together a data room for your investors. Almost no one does this. It’s hard to understand why. Not having a data room leads to 1000 emails asking for stuff that should have been put in a data room.",
"lines": [
"assay8:284-287"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_DeathAsBadLuck",
"title": "Death as Bad Luck",
"definition": "longevity is the opposite of bad luck. At the broadest level, you get into trouble when something unlucky happens to you. Think of everything that can go wrong. Maybe a piece of your DNA mutates and starts a cancer. Maybe you get run over by a car. Or maybe you get hit by an asteroid. There are many different unlucky things that could happen.",
"lines": [
"assay1:42-48"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Deck",
"title": "Pitch Deck",
"definition": "A deck is written propaganda. It will be e-mailed around and therefore must stand alone. It is not (fundamentally)a presentation tool for projector-based meetings. It is a means of presenting data within a narrative that people read by themselves.",
"lines": [
"assay8:165-168"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_DeterminateOptimism",
"title": "Determinate Optimism",
"definition": "There had always been a relatively well-defined way in which people thought the future would be much better than the present.",
"lines": [
"assay12:58-59"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_DeterminatePerspective",
"title": "Determinate Perspective",
"definition": "things are knowable and you can control them",
"lines": [
"assay12:45-46"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Discovery",
"title": "Discovery",
"definition": "Discovery is the process of exposing secrets. The secrets are dis- covered; the cover is removed from the secret.",
"lines": [
"assay13:18-19"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Distribution",
"title": "Distribution",
"definition": "essentially refers to how you get a product out to consumers. More generally, it can refer to how you spread the message about your company.",
"lines": [
"assay7:3-5"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Dilution",
"title": "Dilution",
"definition": "The process by which a founder's ownership percentage decreases as more people are given equity in the company.",
"lines": [
"assay5:258-260"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_DownRound",
"title": "Down Round",
"definition": "A financing round where the company is valued lower than in a previous round.",
"lines": [
"assay5:239-240",
"assay6:113-114",
"assay6:246-246"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5",
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_EscapeVelocity",
"title": "Escape Velocity (Aging)",
"definition": "The point at which medical technology allows life expectancy to increase faster than the passage of time.",
"lines": [
"assay1:19-20"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Ethos",
"title": "Ethos",
"definition": "Argument based on character—your character. This is the credibility piece.",
"lines": [
"assay8:155-156"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ExceptionalismChallenge",
"title": "The Challenge of Exceptionalism",
"definition": "Any founder or inventor doing something new must wonder: am I sane? Or am I crazy?",
"lines": [
"assay3:54-55"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ExponentialPower",
"title": "Exponential Power in VC",
"definition": "The principle that successful businesses tend to have an exponential growth arc, which is the most important structural element of venture capital.",
"lines": [
"assay6:47-49"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_FirstMoverAdvantage",
"title": "First Mover Advantage",
"definition": "People often talk about “first mover advantage.” But focusing on that may be problematic...you might move first and then fade away.",
"lines": [
"assay4:92-93"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_FlatRound",
"title": "Flat Round",
"definition": "A funding round where a company's valuation remains the same.",
"lines": [
"assay6:113-114",
"assay6:126-126"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_FounderDistribution",
"title": "Founder Distribution",
"definition": "a strange, inverted distribution... Perhaps founders are complex combinations of, e.g., extreme insiders and extreme outsiders at the same time.",
"lines": [
"assay0:31-33"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_GenerativeSpirit",
"title": "Generative Spirit",
"definition": "...there must what might be called a generative spirit, where people are constantly creating.",
"lines": [
"assay15:114-115"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_GovernmentTechRelationship",
"title": "Government-Technology Relationship Molds",
"definition": "being sold to the government, being subsidized by the government, or replacing the government.",
"lines": [
"assay9:360-360"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_GoodCompanyCulture",
"title": "Good Company Culture",
"definition": "A robust company culture is one in which people have something in common that distinguishes them quite sharply from rest of the world... the core people share a relevant and unique philosophy about something important...",
"lines": [
"assay15:22-27"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_GoodHiring",
"title": "Good Hiring",
"definition": "find people who have or contribute to all three properties [talent, long-term orientation, generative spirit]... Culture is the super-structure to choose and channel people’s energies in the right direction.",
"lines": [
"assay15:115-118"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_GreatCompany",
"title": "Great Company",
"definition": "Great companies do three things. First, they create value. Second, they are lasting or permanent in a meaningful way. Finally, they capture at least some of the value they create.",
"lines": [
"assay4:16-19"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_GrowthRate",
"title": "Growth Rate (g)",
"definition": "g [is the] growth rate",
"lines": [
"assay4:66"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_HerfindahlHirschmanIndex",
"title": "Herfindahl-Hirschman Index",
"definition": "It uses firm and industry size to gauge how much competition exists in an industry. Basically, you sum the squares of the top 50 firms’ market shares.",
"lines": [
"assay4:176-178"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_HorizontalProgress",
"title": "Horizontal (Extensive) Progress / Globalization",
"definition": "Horizontal or extensive progress basically means copying things that work. In one word, it means simply 'globalization.'",
"lines": [
"assay3:35-37"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_HumanSecret",
"title": "Human Secret",
"definition": "Secrets about people are different. These are things that people hide because they don’t want other people to know about them.",
"lines": [
"assay13:176-177"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_IndeterminateOptimism",
"title": "Indeterminate Optimism",
"definition": "the future would get better, but not in ways that you could know. ... the universe is still fundamentally benevolent. It is thus best to just figure out incremental things to do and wait for progress to come.",
"lines": [
"assay12:63-66"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_IndeterminatePerspective",
"title": "Indeterminate Perspective",
"definition": "things are unknowable and uncontrollable. There are just too many chance events.",
"lines": [
"assay12:46-47"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_IntelligenceAugmentation",
"title": "Intelligence Augmentation",
"definition": "a framework less about strong AI and more about finding the right balance between human and computer.",
"lines": [
"assay14:269-271"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Investment",
"title": "Investment",
"definition": "putting money in specific things you believe in, like a stock or a company. You’re looking for high returns.",
"lines": [
"assay12:105-106"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_JCurve",
"title": "J Curve",
"definition": "A summation of investment outcomes in a portfolio over time, where early investments may fail, leading to an initial loss, followed by exponential growth from successful investments.",
"lines": [
"assay6:59-61"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_LastMover",
"title": "Last Mover",
"definition": "More important than being the first mover is being the last mover. You have to be durable.",
"lines": [
"assay4:94-95"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_LastingPermanent",
"title": "Lasting/Permanent Company",
"definition": "Great companies last. They are durable. They don’t create value and disappear very fast.",
"lines": [
"assay4:24-25"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_LernerIndex",
"title": "Lerner Index",
"definition": "The Lerner index...gives a sense of how much market power a particular company has. The index value equals (price – marginal cost) / price.",
"lines": [
"assay4:171-173"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_LimitedPartners",
"title": "Limited Partners",
"definition": "People who pool money for a venture capital fund.",
"lines": [
"assay6:22-22"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_LiquidationPreference",
"title": "Liquidation Preference",
"definition": "A preference means that investors get their money back before anyone else does.",
"lines": [
"assay5:222-223"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Logos",
"title": "Logos",
"definition": "Argument based on facts and reason.",
"lines": [
"assay8:155"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Longevity",
"title": "Longevity",
"definition": "How much longer can people actually live?",
"lines": [
"assay1:15-15"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_LongTermOrientation",
"title": "Long-Term Orientation",
"definition": "...they must have a long-term time orientation.",
"lines": [
"assay15:114"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_MFirmConcentrationRatio",
"title": "m-Firm Concentration Ratio",
"definition": "You take either the 4 or 8 largest firms in an industry and sum their market shares. If together they comprise more than 70% of the market, then that market is concentrated.",
"lines": [
"assay4:184-186"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_MacroscopicAccidents",
"title": "Macroscopic Accidents",
"definition": "car crashes",
"lines": [
"assay1:71-71"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ManiaCharacteristics",
"title": "Hallmarks of the Tech Mania",
"definition": "Certain common themes will run through them all: the times were extremely social. People were irrationally exuberant. It felt like there was money everywhere… probably because there was. And there was no shortage of very sketchy people running around the valley.",
"lines": [
"assay2:121-124"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ManiaPeriod",
"title": "1998-2000 Tech Mania",
"definition": "Really, what might be called the mania started in September 1998 and lasted just 18 months.",
"lines": [
"assay2:30-32"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_MarxPerspective",
"title": "Marx Perspective on Conflict",
"definition": "The first is the Karl Marx version. Conflict exists because people disagree about things. The greater the differences, the greater the conflict. The bourgeoisie fights the proletariat because they have completely different ideas and goals. This is the internal perspective on fighting; there is an absolute, categorical difference between you and your enemy.",
"lines": [
"assay11:67-72"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_MicroscopicAccidents",
"title": "Microscopic Accidents",
"definition": "genetic mutations",
"lines": [
"assay1:71-71"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Monopoly",
"title": "Monopoly",
"definition": "if you’re a monopoly, you own the market. By definition, you’re the only one producing a certain thing.",
"lines": [
"assay4:113-114",
"assay4:19-20",
"assay15:40-41"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4",
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_MonopolyOfScale",
"title": "Monopoly of Scale",
"definition": "some industries have monopolies of scale",
"lines": [
"assay4:191"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "def_mystery",
"title": "Mystery",
"definition": "Pretty much everybody knows them. On the other side of the spectrum are things that are impossible to figure out. These are mysteries, not secrets.",
"lines": [
"assay13:11-12"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_NaturalMonopoly",
"title": "Natural Monopoly",
"definition": "some natural monopolies.",
"lines": [
"assay4:190"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_NaturalSecret",
"title": "Natural Secret",
"definition": "There are secrets of nature and then there are secrets about people. Natural secrets involve science and the world around us.",
"lines": [
"assay13:174-175"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_NetworkEffects",
"title": "Network Effects",
"definition": "the nature of a product locks people into a particular business.",
"lines": [
"assay4:201-202"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_NonZeroSumBehavior",
"title": "Non-Zero-Sum Behavior",
"definition": "...focus on an area that’s not zero-sum.",
"lines": [
"assay15:37-38"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ObjectiveValue",
"title": "Objective Business Value",
"definition": "whether it’s possible to determine businesses’ objective value and, if it is, how to do it.",
"lines": [
"assay4:2"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_OldEconomyValuation",
"title": "Old Economy Firm Valuation",
"definition": "In businesses in decline, most of the value is in the near term. Value investors look at cash flows. If a company can maintain present cash flows for 5 or 6 years, it’s a good investment.",
"lines": [
"assay4:71-74"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Ownership",
"title": "Ownership",
"definition": "Who actually owns the company. This means who has equity and in what amounts.",
"lines": [
"assay5:128-129"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_PER",
"title": "Price-Earnings Ratio (PER)",
"definition": "The most common multiple is the price-earnings ratio, also known as P/E ratio or the PER. The PER is equal to market value (per share) / earnings (per share). In other words, it is the price of a stock relative to a firm’s net income.",
"lines": [
"assay4:43-46"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_PEG",
"title": "Price/Earnings to Growth ratio (PEG)",
"definition": "To account for growth, you use the PEG, or Price/Earnings to Growth ratio. PEG equals (market value / earnings) / annual earnings growth. That is, PEG is PER divided by annual growth in earnings.",
"lines": [
"assay4:48-50"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Pathos",
"title": "Pathos",
"definition": "Argument based on listeners’ emotions.",
"lines": [
"assay8:156"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_PeakOilTheory",
"title": "Peak Oil Theory",
"definition": "a Shell oil geologist named M. King Hubbart noticed a drop in the rate at which new oil wells were being discovered. He identified a lag of 20-30 years between well discovery and tapped production. Hubbart predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the mid 1970s and would then start to decline.",
"lines": [
"assay9:183-187"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_PerfectCompetition",
"title": "Perfect Competition",
"definition": "In perfect competition, no firms in an industry make economic profit.",
"lines": [
"assay4:106-107",
"assay4:2-4"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_PerfectScapegoat",
"title": "Perfect Scapegoat",
"definition": "someone at both extremes. He must be both an extreme outsider and an extreme insider.",
"lines": [
"assay0:182-183"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Pitch",
"title": "The Pitch",
"definition": "Convince a reasonably smart person to exchange his capital for your piece of paper (a stock certificate) that is really nothing more than a promise about something that may be valuable later but, on a blind statistical basis, probably won’t be.",
"lines": [
"assay8:27-30"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_PortfolioCompanies",
"title": "Portfolio Companies",
"definition": "Early stage companies in which venture capital funds invest.",
"lines": [
"assay6:23-23"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Possession",
"title": "Possession",
"definition": "Who operates the company. That is, who, on a day-to-day basis, is making decisions and doing stuff in company offices.",
"lines": [
"assay5:129-131"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_PowerLawDistribution",
"title": "Power Law Distribution in VC Returns",
"definition": "An incredibly skewed pattern of actual investment returns where a few investments account for the vast majority of the gains.",
"lines": [
"assay6:77-78"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ProRataParticipationRights",
"title": "Pro Rata Participation Rights",
"definition": "The right for an existing investor to invest to maintain their percentage ownership in a company during a new funding round.",
"lines": [
"assay6:109-111"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ProprietaryTechnology",
"title": "Proprietary Technology",
"definition": "exists where, for some reason or other, no one else can use the technology you develop.",
"lines": [
"assay4:202-203"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_RetrofutureGoal",
"title": "Retrofuture Goal",
"definition": "think about where the past failed, learn the right lessons, and make it work this time.",
"lines": [
"assay10:178-178"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_RetentionRate",
"title": "Retention Rate (r)",
"definition": "Retention rate (monthly, decay function), or r",
"lines": [
"assay7:35"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_RetailSanityWholesaleMadness",
"title": "Retail Sanity, Wholesale Madness",
"definition": "Our world as having retail sanity, but wholesale madness. Details are well understood; the big picture remains unclear.",
"lines": [
"assay3:2-3"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_RicardoParadigm",
"title": "Ricardo Paradigm",
"definition": "technology is fundamentally good. While technology displaces people, it also frees them up to do more.",
"lines": [
"assay14:90-91"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_R",
"title": "Discount Rate (r)",
"definition": "r [is the] discount rate",
"lines": [
"assay4:66"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SacrificialCycle",
"title": "Sacrificial Cycle",
"definition": "Absent strong institutions, peace never lasted... people would gang up, unite against a scapegoat, and perform the sacrifice. Peace was restored. And the cycle repeated an infinitum.",
"lines": [
"assay0:149-154"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Savings",
"title": "Savings",
"definition": "when you hold onto your money so that you’re able to spend it in the future. You typically get very low returns.",
"lines": [
"assay12:106-107"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ScaleCostAdvantages",
"title": "Scale Cost Advantages",
"definition": "come into play where there are high fixed costs and low marginal costs.",
"lines": [
"assay4:198-199"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SchadenfreudeEpoch",
"title": "The Post-Crash Era of 'Schadenfreude'",
"definition": "In the aftermath of 2001 and 2002, enormous amounts of hubris yielded to Shadenfreude. People insisted that “we were right all along,” and became culturally and socially depressed.",
"lines": [
"assay2:223-225"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Secret",
"title": "Secret",
"definition": "Secrets are unpopular or unconventional truths.",
"lines": [
"assay13:4-4"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ShakespearePerspective",
"title": "Shakespeare Perspective on Conflict",
"definition": "The other version is Shakespeare. This could be called the external perspective on fighting; from the outside, all combatants sort of look alike. It’s clear why they’re fighting each other.",
"lines": [
"assay11:74-76"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ShockAndAwe",
"title": "Shock and Awe",
"definition": "So your strategy must be shock and awe—real shock and awe, not the fake kind that gets you a 10-year war. You have to win very quickly.",
"lines": [
"assay11:188-190"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SingularityPersonal",
"title": "Individual Singularity",
"definition": "The concept of each person's life being a unique and unrepeatable sequence of one-time events and decisions.",
"lines": [
"assay1:324-325"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SingularityTheoryFuture",
"title": "Singularity Theory of Future Progress",
"definition": "Fourth is the singularity where technological development yields some AI or intellectual event horizon.",
"lines": [
"assay3:115"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SmartVC",
"title": "Smart VC",
"definition": "A well-regarded venture capital firm known for making successful investment decisions.",
"lines": [
"assay6:110-111",
"assay6:241-241",
"assay6:352-352"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SocialEntrepreneurship",
"title": "Social Entrepreneurship",
"definition": "doing well while doing good. The problem is that social entrepreneurs usually end up doing neither.",
"lines": [
"assay9:140-140"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldStrong",
"title": "Strong Software Eating the World Hypothesis",
"definition": "Software is eating many other industries that have not been subject to rapid technological change.",
"lines": [
"assay14:270-271"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldStrongest",
"title": "Strongest Software Eating the World Hypothesis",
"definition": "As a consequence of all this, Silicon Valley type software companies will end up eating everything. The kinds of companies we build in the Valley will rule pretty much every industry. These companies have software at their very core. They know how to develop software. They know the economics of software. They make engineering the priority. And that’s why they’ll win.",
"lines": [
"assay14:276-282"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldWeak",
"title": "Weak Software Eating the World Hypothesis",
"definition": "Software is eating the tech/computer industry. The value of computers is increasingly software, not hardware.",
"lines": [
"assay14:265-267"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_StartupStructure",
"title": "Startup Structure",
"definition": "basically structured as a monarchy... it isn’t an absolute dictatorship. No founder or CEO has absolute power. It’s more like the archaic feudal structure.",
"lines": [
"assay0:353-357"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_StrongAI",
"title": "Strong AI",
"definition": "Creating human-level general intelligence.",
"lines": [
"assay14:459"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SuccessAssessment0to1",
"title": "Success Assessment in 0-to-1 Ventures",
"definition": "But in the 0 to 1 paradigm, it’s not a statistical question; the standard deviation with a sample size of 1 is infinite.",
"lines": [
"assay3:85-86"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_SuccessAssessment1toN",
"title": "Success Assessment in 1-to-N Ventures",
"definition": "In the 1 to n paradigm, it’s [assessing a venture's probability of success] a statistical question.",
"lines": [
"assay3:84-85"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "def_talent",
"title": "Talent",
"definition": "a company must have very talented people.",
"lines": [
"assay15:113-114"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Technology",
"title": "Technology (0 to 1)",
"definition": "going from 0 to 1",
"lines": [
"assay4:11"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_TechnologyDefinition",
"title": "Technology Definition",
"definition": "What can be done that’s better and cheaper? Can you do more for less? That, of course, is the classic definition of technology.",
"lines": [
"assay9:379-381"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_TechHighGrowthValuation",
"title": "Tech/High Growth Firm Valuation",
"definition": "At first, most of them lose money. When the growth rate...is higher than the discount rate r, a lot of the value in tech businesses exists pretty far in the future.",
"lines": [
"assay4:77-79"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Theater",
"title": "Theater",
"definition": "It often starts as theater. People threaten each other. Governments point missiles at each other. Nations become obsessed with copying one another.",
"lines": [
"assay11:23-25"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ThielsLaw",
"title": "Thiel's Law",
"definition": "A startup messed up at its foundation cannot be fixed.",
"lines": [
"assay5:3-4"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_TimeValueOfMoney",
"title": "Time Value of Money (TVM)",
"definition": "a quantity of money today is worth more than it is in the future. So you discount the time value of money, or TVM, since there are all sorts of risks as you move forward in the future.",
"lines": [
"assay4:55-57"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Transhumanism",
"title": "Transhumanism",
"definition": "Ideas and movements that advocate for the enhancement of the human condition beyond its current limitations, often through technology.",
"lines": [
"assay1:294-298"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_TuringTest",
"title": "Turing Test",
"definition": "a test for AI that asks whether you can build a machine that behaves as intelligently as a human does. It focuses on the subset of human behavior that is intelligent.",
"lines": [
"assay14:75-77"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_TwoAndTwenty",
"title": "2-and-20 Model",
"definition": "A typical VC compensation model where the firm charges an annual management fee of 2% of the fund and gets 20% of the gains beyond the original investment.",
"lines": [
"assay6:29-31"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_UpRound",
"title": "Up Round",
"definition": "A funding round where a company's valuation increases.",
"lines": [
"assay6:110-111",
"assay6:121-122"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ValuableCompanyQuestion",
"title": "The Valuable Company Question (Business)",
"definition": "What valuable company is nobody building?",
"lines": [
"assay3:206"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_VerticalProgress",
"title": "Vertical (Intensive) Progress / Technology",
"definition": "Vertical or intensive progress, by contrast, means doing new things. The single word for this is 'technology.'",
"lines": [
"assay0:52-54",
"assay3:35",
"assay3:40-41"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0",
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Web1",
"title": "Web 1.0",
"definition": "Content was mostly static. Now the emphasis is on user generated content, social networking, and collaboration of one sort or another.",
"lines": [
"assay14:25-27"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_Web2",
"title": "Web 2.0",
"definition": "When things got going content was mostly static. Now the emphasis is on user generated content, social networking, and collaboration of one sort or another.",
"lines": [
"assay14:25-27"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_WinnerTakeAllDynamic",
"title": "Winner-Take-All Dynamic",
"definition": "A market condition where a single leading company dominates the industry.",
"lines": [
"assay6:304-305"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_WorldOfBits",
"title": "World of Bits",
"definition": "That is, computers and finance.",
"lines": [
"assay14:47"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ZeroSumEnvironment",
"title": "Zero-Sum Environment",
"definition": "...a classically competitive, antagonistic, zero-sum training. Sometimes... the sport is literally fighting.",
"lines": [
"assay15:45-48"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "Def_ZeroToOne",
"title": "From 0 to 1",
"definition": "Creating something fundamentally new and different, as opposed to iterating on existing ideas (going from 1 to n).",
"lines": [
"assay1:318-319"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
}
]
},
{
"catalogType": "assumptions",
"items": [
{
"key": "A0_90sShapedPresent",
"title": "The 1990s Profoundly Shaped the Current Business Landscape",
"assumption": "All that’s clear is that the ‘90s powerfully shaped the current landscape.",
"lines": [
"assay2:26-27"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "A10_DifficultyIncreasingValue",
"title": "Difficulty Increasing Value Extends",
"assumption": "It is approximately as hard to increase a company's value from $10m to $100m as it is from $100m to $1bn or $1bn to $10bn (with limits at very high market caps).",
"lines": [
"assay6:292-295"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A10_LackOfUnderstandingPhysicsBiotechAI",
"title": "Potential Limits to Biotech and AI",
"assumption": "It's plausible that there are invisible barriers lurking beneath the surface in areas like aging/cancer in biotech and code complexity in AI, potentially limiting exponential growth.",
"lines": [
"assay14:378-384"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A10_NonZeroSumPeoplePickCompetitiveFields",
"title": "Non-Zero-Sum People Pick Competitive Fields",
"assumption": "Even these people tend to pick competitive, warring fields because they don’t know any better.",
"lines": [
"assay15:73-74"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A15_MostStartupsRunByNonZeroSumPeople"
]
},
{
"key": "A10_OversubscriptionAttractive",
"title": "Oversubscription Creates Fear of Missing Out",
"assumption": "If it’s at all plausible, make your deal seem oversubscribed. This tends to overcome what could otherwise be crippling inertia against any given deal.",
"lines": [
"assay8:141-143"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_CompaniesHoardCashLackOfIdeas",
"title": "Companies Hoard Cash Lack of Ideas",
"assumption": "Companies generate free cash flows and hoard cash because they have no idea what else to do with it.",
"lines": [
"assay12:126-129"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_EarlyTechNerds",
"title": "Early Web Evangelists",
"assumption": "The tech nerds who popularized the web in the early 1990s were influential not because they had prophetic truth, but because they built the technology (like the Mosaic browser) when larger power structures were focused elsewhere.",
"lines": [
"assay14:226-232"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_ExcessChoiceBurdens",
"title": "Excess Choice is a Burden",
"assumption": "Empirical studies show people are actually made unhappy by a lot of choice. Too many choices makes for Costco Syndrome and mental encumbrance.",
"lines": [
"assay8:110-112"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_MonarchyOrigin",
"title": "Theory of Monarchy Originating from Scapegoating",
"assumption": "monarchy originated this way [from sacrificial scapegoating].",
"lines": [
"assay0:198-199"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_NeedCompoundingEdge",
"title": "Difficult Competition Requires Edge",
"assumption": "In more difficult competitive scenarios, you really have to have an edge to win.",
"lines": [
"assay11:251-252"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_PredictingNearFuturePossible",
"title": "Predicting the Near Future is Possible",
"assumption": "It is easier to predict what the world will look like in 30 years than in 40 years.",
"lines": [
"assay1:14-15"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_RationalityInMarketDefinition",
"title": "Rationality in Market Definition",
"assumption": "Asking what is the truth about a given market...is crucially important.",
"lines": [
"assay4:143-144"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_StartupFinancingRule",
"title": "Startup Financing Guideline",
"assumption": "A good, broad rule of thumb is to never invest in companies who are looking for less than $1 million or more than $1 billion.",
"lines": [
"assay9:198-199"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_TrustDissent",
"title": "Culture Reflects and Enhances Properties",
"assumption": "Culture can reflect and enhance these three properties.",
"lines": [
"assay15:121-122"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_GoodCompanyCulture"
]
},
{
"key": "A11_WideMarketsCompetitive",
"title": "Big Markets Are Competitive",
"assumption": "Really big markets tend to be very competitive.",
"lines": [
"assay4:110-111"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "A12_BiasInAssessingFutureProgressTheories",
"title": "Bias in Assessing Future Progress Theories",
"assumption": "People tend to overestimate the likelihood of convergence and cyclical theories of technological progress and underestimate destruction and singularity theories.",
"lines": [
"assay3:116-117"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_ConvergenceTheoryFuture",
"Def_CyclicalTheoryFuture",
"Def_CollapseTheoryFuture",
"Def_SingularityTheoryFuture"
]
},
{
"key": "A12_BubbleAntiBubbleAssumeSocialTruth",
"title": "Bubble/Anti-Bubble Thinking Presumes Socially Constructed Truth",
"assumption": "Bubble and anti-bubble thinking are both wrong because they hold the truth is social.",
"lines": [
"assay2:313-314"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "A12_BuildingGreatBusinessMetric",
"title": "Building a Great Business Metric",
"assumption": "In a world with some friction and uncertainty, you build a great business if CLV > CPA.",
"lines": [
"assay7:41-42"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_CustomerLifetimeValue",
"Def_CostPerCustomerAcquisition"
]
},
{
"key": "A12_CoordinationCostDynamics",
"title": "Coordination Cost Dynamics with Entity Size",
"assumption": "As an entity grows in size, its internal coordination costs tend to rise, while its external coordination costs tend to fall.",
"lines": [
"assay3:122-124"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "A12_DotComCrashScarring",
"title": "Dot Com Crash Scarring",
"assumption": "Experiencing the 2000 dot com market crash has deeply and perhaps irreparably psychologically scarred those who lived through it, making them overly cautious and prone to seeing bubbles.",
"lines": [
"assay14:252-261"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A12_IneffectiveNaiveVCReturnModel",
"title": "Ineffective Naive VC Return Model",
"assumption": "A naive grouping of VC investments into three buckets (bad, mediocre, great) misses the key insight of incredibly skewed actual returns.",
"lines": [
"assay6:67-73"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A12_QuestionInDeterminateWorld",
"title": "Question in a Determinate World",
"assumption": "In a determinate world, people would ask if Solyndra's technology worked.",
"lines": [
"assay9:234-235"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A12_VCTimeConstraints",
"title": "VCs Are Busy",
"assumption": "...they’re also very busy. The cognitive resources they allocate to any given pitch are—rationally—quite modest.",
"lines": [
"assay8:150-152"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_BiotechPotentialForLongevity",
"title": "Biotech Potential for Longevity",
"assumption": "Biotech may be well positioned to try and answer how much longer people can live.",
"lines": [
"assay1:16-17"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Longevity"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_CapitalismVersusCompetition",
"title": "Capitalism Versus Competition",
"assumption": "capitalism and perfect competition are opposites.",
"lines": [
"assay4:4-5"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PerfectCompetition"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_CultureImportance",
"title": "Culture Importance",
"assumption": "Company culture is important.",
"lines": [
"assay15:13-14"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_ImportantTruthCriterion",
"title": "Important Truth Criterion",
"assumption": "An important truth is something very few people agree with you on.",
"lines": [
"assay13:2-3"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_LowYield",
"title": "VC Pitching Low Yield Activity",
"assumption": "VCs find the pitching process frustrating because it is a low yield activity.",
"lines": [
"assay8:12-14"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_PastTechnologicalAcceleration",
"title": "Past Technological Acceleration",
"assumption": "Technological progress was tremendous from the late 17th century to the late 1960s.",
"lines": [
"assay3:12-14"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_PastVisionsNotAchieved",
"title": "Past Visions Not Achieved",
"assumption": "Many mid-20th century visions of technological futures (weather prediction/control, transportation, robotics) have not been fully realized.",
"lines": [
"assay10:19-33"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_PlannedIndeterminacyFailure",
"title": "Planned Indeterminacy Failure",
"assumption": "Planned indeterminacy does not work in practice.",
"lines": [
"assay9:10-10"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_ProductSuccessNotEnsuredByQualityAlone",
"title": "Product Success Not Ensured by Quality Alone",
"assumption": "An incredibly fantastic product does not guarantee consumer reach.",
"lines": [
"assay7:9-11"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_RulesForStartingBusiness",
"title": "Rules for Starting a Business",
"assumption": "There are certain rules that you simply must follow when you start a business.",
"lines": [
"assay5:2-3"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_ValueConfusionIn90s",
"title": "90s Value Confusion",
"assumption": "The 1990s were characterized by widespread confusion about business valuation, driven by psychosocial factors.",
"lines": [
"assay4:1-2"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_VentureCapitalNeedsLargeCapital",
"title": "Need for Large Capital",
"assumption": "Some business founders will eventually need to raise a larger amount of capital.",
"lines": [
"assay6:14-16"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_WarIsHumanExperience",
"title": "War is a Human Experience",
"assumption": "We are all very well acquainted with war.",
"lines": [
"assay11:14"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_understanding90sNeeded",
"title": "Understanding 90s Tech History is Essential for Present Startup Insights",
"assumption": "To participate in the dinner table conversation—to be able to think and talk about businesses and startups today in 2012—we must get a handle on the history of the ‘90s.",
"lines": [
"assay2:19-21",
"assay2:27-28"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Culture"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_VCProfitStructure",
"title": "VC Profit Structure",
"assumption": "Most of the profits from a VC fund go back to LPs as investment returns.",
"lines": [
"assay6:27-28"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_LimitedPartners"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_AIIsLargeSpace",
"title": "AI Has Wider Range Than Natural Intelligence",
"assumption": "The range of potential AI is much larger than the range of alien intelligence, which in turn is broader than the range of human intelligence.",
"lines": [
"assay14:35-37"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_AIUnderexploredContrarian",
"title": "AI Is Underexplored and Contrarian",
"assumption": "AI falls in the underexplored, contrarian quadrant [of technology development].",
"lines": [
"assay14:223-224"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_BiasTowardsLuck",
"title": "Bias Towards Luck",
"assumption": "People tend to be extremely biased towards the luck side of things when explaining success.",
"lines": [
"assay12:22-25"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_ConnectionBetweenExtremityAndFounding",
"title": "Connection Between Extremity and Founding",
"assumption": "There is a connection בין being a founder and having extreme traits.",
"lines": [
"assay0:44"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_FoundersAreImportant",
"title": "Founders are Important",
"assumption": "Founders are important.",
"lines": [
"assay0:2"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_HistoricalInternetDevelopment",
"title": "Historical Internet Development",
"assumption": "The Internet started with ARPANET about 40 years ago, leading to the World Wide Web in the 1990s, with shifts in content and usage patterns over time.",
"lines": [
"assay14:14-37"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_ImportanceOfPersonalReflectionInValue",
"title": "Importance of Personal Reflection in Value",
"assumption": "Identifying valuable companies involves answering personal questions about one's capabilities, what is valuable, and what others are not doing.",
"lines": [
"assay4:5-7"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "A1_VCsHaveCognitiveBiases",
"title": "VCs Have Cognitive Biases",
"assumption": "VCs are rational systems infected with emotional viruses (and infused with a tinge of wealth and privilege and all that implies).",
"lines": [
"assay8:41-42"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_FailureTrackingImportance",
"title": "Tracking Failures",
"assumption": "For VCs, tracking systematic failures is important because an idea that failed due to poor timing might be a good investment later if the timing is right.",
"lines": [
"assay14:376-379",
"assay14:383-387"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A14_DotComCrashScarring"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_HistoriclPrecedentForUnforeseenProgress",
"title": "Historical Precedent for Unforeseen Progress Exists",
"assumption": "Historical examples, like the development of the airplane, demonstrate that technological progress can occur in ways unforeseen by contemporary trend analysis.",
"lines": [
"assay1:127-133"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_MostDiscussionAboutFutureUnreliable",
"title": "Most Discussion About the Future is Unreliable",
"assumption": "Much discussion about the future is either entirely fabricated or lacks substance.",
"lines": [
"assay1:290-291"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_QuestioningTheBattle",
"title": "Anger Can Be Healthy",
"assumption": "It’s hard not to get soft as you train niceties. Pretty soon you spend more time thinking about how nice everyone is than you do about how qualified they are. That is death.",
"lines": [
"assay15:234-237"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_VCsLookingForNextGoogle",
"title": "VCs Seek Next Google",
"assumption": "VCs are looking for startups that have the potential to become extremely large and successful like Google.",
"lines": [
"assay6:191-193"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_BiasTowardStagnationHindelrsBeliefInAcceleratedProgress",
"title": "Bias Toward Stagnation Hinders Belief in Accelerated Progress",
"assumption": "People's bias toward stagnation makes them reluctant to believe in or accept predictions of accelerated technological progress, such as in anti-aging.",
"lines": [
"assay1:122-126"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_ComplexThinkingHindersGroupDiscourse",
"title": "Complex Thinking Hinders Group Discourse",
"assumption": "Factoring in numerous variables when discussing the future would hinder group discourse and the ability to work together today.",
"lines": [
"assay1:103-104"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_CompetitionGoodForFounders",
"title": "VCs Are Often Unprofitable",
"assumption": "Most VC firms do not make money.",
"lines": [
"assay6:169-171"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_CompetitionIsBad",
"title": "Competition is Bad",
"assumption": "Capitalism and competition are antonyms.",
"lines": [
"assay15:35-36"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_CompetitionNotOptimal",
"title": "Monopoly Bad (Standard View)",
"assumption": "If competition is good, then the default view is that monopoly must be bad.",
"lines": [
"assay4:141-143"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PerfectCompetition",
"Def_Monopoly"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_CompetitionSourceOfProgress",
"title": "Competition as Progress Source (Standard View)",
"assumption": "The standard economic narrative views competition as the primary driver of progress.",
"lines": [
"assay4:140-141"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_MistakesInFuturePrediction",
"title": "Future Prediction Pitfalls",
"assumption": "Pitfalls in thinking about the future include being right on substance but wrong on timing (too early) or being right on timing but finding that the opportunity is already saturated.",
"lines": [
"assay14:427-430"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_PeopleDontSubstantivelyEngageOnFuture",
"title": "People Don't Substantively Engage on the Future",
"assumption": "Most people do not actively and substantively engage with ideas about the future, including concepts like the singularity.",
"lines": [
"assay1:110-115"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_PeopleProjectRelativeStagnation",
"title": "People Project Relative Stagnation",
"assumption": "Most people hold a view of the future characterized by relative stagnation, believing that changes will be slow and limited.",
"lines": [
"assay1:119-122"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_ThinkingAboutFutureIsUncomfortableAndDifficult",
"title": "Thinking About the Future is Uncomfortable and Difficult",
"assumption": "It is uncomfortable and somewhat difficult for people to think about the future.",
"lines": [
"assay1:98-99"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_ThinkingAboutFutureCanBeIsolating",
"title": "Thinking About the Future Can Be Isolating",
"assumption": "Engaging in deep thought about the future can be socially isolating.",
"lines": [
"assay1:105-107"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_VCInvestmentDecisionTendencies",
"title": "VC Investment Decision Tendencies",
"assumption": "VCs often exhibit behaviors like waiting for more data before investing (which can increase price) or waiting to follow the decisions of others, due to uncertainty in decision-making.",
"lines": [
"assay6:200-202",
"assay6:191-193"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_VCsLookingForNextGoogle"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_SmartVC"
]
},
{
"key": "A20_VCsPokeHoles",
"title": "VCs Poke Holes in Proposed Investments",
"assumption": "VCs love to poke holes in their partners’ proposed investments— it’s a critical part of the lemon detection process.",
"lines": [
"assay8:252-253"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A21_FearOfUnknownExaggeratesRisks",
"title": "Fear of the Unknown Drives Negative Reactions to Radical Ideas",
"assumption": "Fear of the unknown is a deep-seated emotion that causes people to react negatively and exaggerate risks when presented with radical new propositions.",
"lines": [
"assay1:140-144"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A21_LackOfUnderstandingDisbeliefAndFearHinderAcceptance",
"title": "Lack of Understanding, Disbelief, and Fear Hinder Acceptance",
"assumption": "People's problems with new technologies often stem from a lack of understanding, disbelief, or fear.",
"lines": [
"assay1:151-153"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A21_MiscalculationOfSkew",
"title": "Miscalculation of Skew",
"assumption": "People tend to miscalculate in contexts (like tech startups) where distributions are vastly skewed, due to a learned tendency to think linearly.",
"lines": [
"assay6:149-154"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A21_MissedInvestmentCynicism",
"title": "Cynicism from Missed Investments",
"assumption": "When VCs or others fail to invest in something that later succeeds, they tend to remain anchored to their initial negative view and become cynical about the successful outcome.",
"lines": [
"assay14:390-393"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A21_NdAPerceivedAsAmateur",
"title": "Asking for NDA is Amateurish",
"assumption": "Do not ask for an NDA. Ever. You will be perceived as a rank amateur.",
"lines": [
"assay8:214-215"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A21_QuestioningTheBattleInternal",
"title": "Companies Die From Internal Infighting",
"assumption": "Most companies are killed by internal infighting, even though it may not seem like it. It’s like an autoimmune disease.",
"lines": [
"assay11:204-206"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "A21_ThePitchCoreSubstanceEthos",
"title": "If Competition Justified",
"assumption": "To understand the static snapshot (economic competition), you have to look to the underlying psychology and development.",
"lines": [
"assay11:60-62"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "A23_VCRequiresChampion",
"title": "Need a Champion Within VC Firm",
"assumption": "You’ll want to pick someone in the room to be your evangelist. You need a champion in the VC firm, or else your deal will die.",
"lines": [
"assay8:302-303"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A23_VCReturnRequirement",
"title": "VC 10x Return Requirement",
"assumption": "VCs have to look for 10x returns.",
"lines": [
"assay9:195-196"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A23_VCsOftenUnprofitable",
"title": "VC Industry May Be Overinvested",
"assumption": "The VC industry may be overinvested, making it hard for most firms to be profitable.",
"lines": [
"assay6:173-176"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A23_WellDesignedProductsImportant",
"title": "People Project Relative Stagnation",
"assumption": "Most people hold a view of the future characterized by relative stagnation, believing that changes will be slow and limited.",
"lines": [
"assay1:119-122"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A24_EngineersShouldPrioritizeEquity",
"title": "Engineers Should Prioritize Equity",
"assumption": "Generally you want people to want stock.",
"lines": [
"assay15:279-280"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A24_MostVCsNotGood",
"title": "Most VCs Are Not Good",
"assumption": "The truth is that most VCs are not very good at all. The objective verification of this is that the bottom 80% of industry hasn’t made any money in the last 10 years.",
"lines": [
"assay8:329-331"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A24_VCRelationshipLongTerm",
"title": "VC Relationships are Long-Term",
"assumption": "Companies are staying private longer and longer now. You’ll be stuck with your VC for a very long time. Facebook has been private for 8 years now. The average American marriage lasts for about 10 years.",
"lines": [
"assay8:305-308"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A25_BestHiresPrioritizeEquity",
"title": "The Best Hires Prioritize Equity Over Salary",
"assumption": "The best hires don’t seem to care too much about money at all... But you want people to care far more about equity.",
"lines": [
"assay15:280-285"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A25_SellingToLargeEntities",
"title": "Selling to Large/Government Entities",
"assumption": "Selling products to government entities or very large enterprises involves complex processes and often requires starting with smaller customers.",
"lines": [
"assay10:254-288"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
]
},
{
"key": "A25_TimingFuturePredictionPitfalls",
"title": "Market Timing Analogy (Surfing)",
"assumption": "Identifying and timing the next significant market opportunity ('big wave') requires predictive action ('paddling') before the wave is guaranteed, erring on the side of being too early rather than too late.",
"lines": [
"assay14:432-442"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_MistakesInFuturePrediction"
]
},
{
"key": "A25_VCsInvestInCompaniesNotIdeas",
"title": "VCs Invest in Companies, Not Ideas",
"assumption": "VCs are supposed invest in companies, not create and build your company for you. Do not pitch until you’re a company. No one wants to get pitched just an idea or product.",
"lines": [
"assay8:348-351"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A26_BestHiresUnderstandEquityAsOwnership",
"title": "Best Hires Understand Equity as Ownership",
"assumption": "The best hires say “That’s the numerator. What’s the denominator?” The best people are the ones who care to ask: How much of the company is mine?",
"lines": [
"assay15:285-289"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A26_DistinctionBetweenInspirationAndIncrementalImprovement",
"title": "Distinction Between Inspiration and Incremental Improvement",
"assumption": "There is a distinction between brilliant inspiration and incremental improvement in tech and energy innovation.",
"lines": [
"assay9:213-214"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A26_TermsTypicallyDontMatter",
"title": "Most Terms Don't Matter",
"assumption": "Most terms don’t matter. ...If the outcome is zero, terms don’t matter. If the outcome is huge success, terms don’t really matter either. Only for little-better-than-mediocre-exits do terms matter much, and those outcomes are pretty rare in VC.",
"lines": [
"assay8:339-343"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A27_DifficultOfComplexCoordinationInCleantech",
"title": "Difficulty of Complex Coordination in Cleantech",
"assumption": "Complex coordination is harder in cleantech than on the Internet.",
"lines": [
"assay9:215-217",
"assay9:218-220"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A27_GoodSalespeopleAreSmart",
"title": "Good Salespeople Are Smart",
"assumption": "good sales people are just as smart as engineers...",
"lines": [
"assay15:294-295"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A27_IndustrySpecificWaves",
"title": "Industry-Specific Waves",
"assumption": "Significant market 'waves' (disruptions) tend to occur industry by industry, often facing complex regulatory and competitive structures.",
"lines": [
"assay14:447-454"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A27_VCValueAddMajorityCapital",
"title": "VC Value Add is Majority Capital",
"assumption": "Probably 80% of the value add is capital, and 20% is advising.",
"lines": [
"assay8:355-356"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
]
},
{
"key": "A28_PatentSystemIssues",
"title": "Broken Patent System",
"assumption": "The US software patent system is currently broken because patent examiners struggle to assess novelty, leading to too many patents that act as a 'regulatory tax' on tech companies, particularly startups.",
"lines": [
"assay14:458-463",
"assay14:480-481"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A28_PowerLawWithinBusiness",
"title": "Power Law Within a Business",
"assumption": "Even within an individual business, there is likely a power law distribution regarding what will drive its success, often one source of revenue dominating others.",
"lines": [
"assay6:211-217"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A28_SalespeopleExaggerate",
"title": "Salespeople Exaggerate",
"assumption": "you have to apply some sort of discount rate because they don’t always tell the exact truth [about past sales].",
"lines": [
"assay15:300-301"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A28_SolyndraAftermathFocus",
"title": "Solyndra Aftermath Focus",
"assumption": "The aftermath of the Solyndra failure focused on legal and financial processes rather than technological viability.",
"lines": [
"assay9:233-236"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A29_CantPlayGodReactionHindesProgress",
"title": "'Don't Play God' Reaction Hinders Progress",
"assumption": "Reactions like 'Don't mess with nature!' or 'Don't play God!' are understandable visceral responses but ultimately impede progress.",
"lines": [
"assay1:156-160"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A29_EngineersCannotSustainLongTermEffortForMoneyAlone",
"title": "Engineers Cannot Sustain Long-Term Effort for Money Alone",
"assumption": "Humans can’t muster that amount of sustained focus and energy if they don’t love what they’re doing.",
"lines": [
"assay15:312-314"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A29_LinkedInIsAnException",
"title": "LinkedIn is an Exception",
"assumption": "LinkedIn is an unusual exception to the power law distribution of internal business drivers, having three relatively equal revenue streams.",
"lines": [
"assay6:219-221"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A29_PatentLitigationVsLicensing",
"title": "Patent Strategy Choices",
"assumption": "Companies in the software industry generally have to choose a strategy between constantly fighting patent claims and constantly licensing technology, neither of which is ideal; finding a balance is necessary.",
"lines": [
"assay14:464-468"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A30_EducatingPeopleIsBetterThanIgnoringThem",
"title": "Educating People is Better Than Ignoring Them",
"assumption": "Trying to educate people about new technology is a better approach than ignoring their concerns.",
"lines": [
"assay1:164-165"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A30_LongTermValueBuildsOverLongTermInEngineering",
"title": "Value Builds Over the Long Term in Engineering",
"assumption": "One thing that’s undervalued in the engineering world is over how long a term most of the value is built.",
"lines": [
"assay15:322-324"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A30_PatentLitigationCosts",
"title": "Patent Litigation Costs",
"assumption": "Litigating patent claims can be costly but potentially worthwhile if it deters future suits, though there's a risk of winning without setting a precedent and facing continued litigation.",
"lines": [
"assay14:472-478"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A30_UnderestimationOfRapidGrowth",
"title": "Underestimation of Rapid Growth",
"assumption": "People often don't appreciate or understand rapid increases in value when businesses grow exponentially and underestimate the massive asymmetry of returns.",
"lines": [
"assay6:231-234"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A30_ImpossibilityOfDeterminatePessimismInEnergy",
"title": "Impossibility of Determinate Pessimism in Energy",
"assumption": "Determinate pessimism simply won’t work in energy.",
"lines": [
"assay9:259-259"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A31_BigCoTerminalState",
"title": "Big Company Terminal State",
"assumption": "The ultimate state for some large, established companies in tech seems to be one where they cease building new technology and instead focus on accumulating patents to extract licensing fees.",
"lines": [
"assay14:482-486"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A31_EngineersAreCynical",
"title": "Engineers Are Cynical",
"assumption": "Engineers are very cynical people. They’re trained to be.",
"lines": [
"assay15:344-345"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A31_InadequacyOfConservationAlone",
"title": "Inadequacy of Conservation Alone",
"assumption": "Conservation and rationing are not enough to solve global energy issues.",
"lines": [
"assay9:260-261"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A31_LackOfUnderstandingMakesTechnologySeemLikeMagic",
"title": "Lack of Understanding Makes Technology Seem Like Magic",
"assumption": "Technology that people do not understand can appear to be magic.",
"lines": [
"assay1:167-168"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A31_RealValueIsFutureOriented",
"title": "Real Value is Future-Oriented",
"assumption": "The real value of a company is always in its future potential.",
"lines": [
"assay6:238-240"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A32_ClearCommunicationCanIncreaseAcceptance",
"title": "Clear Communication Can Increase Acceptance",
"assumption": "Clearly explaining the benefits and costs of new technology can increase public acceptance.",
"lines": [
"assay1:169-172"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A32_EngineersThinkNewIdeasAreDumb",
"title": "Engineers Think New Ideas Are Dumb",
"assumption": "Since engineers think any new idea is dumb, they will tend to think that your new idea is dumb.",
"lines": [
"assay15:346-347"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A32_ImpactOfDevelopingWorldConsumption",
"title": "Impact of Developing World Consumption",
"assumption": "Increased energy consumption in the developing world will offset conservation in developed nations.",
"lines": [
"assay9:261-264"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A32_PatentProblemsIndicateValue",
"title": "Patent Problems as Indicator",
"assumption": "Having patent problems, while challenging, can be a sign that a company has developed valuable technology that others want to challenge.",
"lines": [
"assay14:490-493"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A32_WorldIncreasinglyTakesPowerLawShape",
"title": "World Increasingly Takes Power Law Shape",
"assumption": "The world is increasingly adopting a power law shape in various aspects.",
"lines": [
"assay6:243-247"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A33_FractalPowerLaw",
"title": "Fractal Power Law",
"assumption": "The power law distribution curve is fairly fractal-like across different stages/sizes of investment.",
"lines": [
"assay6:289-292"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A33_IntelligenceCompounds",
"title": "Intelligence Compounds",
"assumption": "We tend to massively underestimate the compounding returns of intelligence.",
"lines": [
"assay15:361-362"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "A33_ITOptimizationPotential",
"title": "Potential for IT in Energy",
"assumption": "Software may play a large role in optimizing energy use and generation.",
"lines": [
"assay9:268-268"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A33_MobileGatekeepers",
"title": "Mobile Gatekeeper Power",
"assumption": "Despite potentially tipping into mass adoption soon, the mobile market (smartphones) is challenging for new companies because major gatekeepers like Apple and Google control distribution and can limit third-party innovation.",
"lines": [
"assay14:520-526"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A33_ProgressLikelyInDecadesAhead",
"title": "Extraordinary Progress is Likely in the Decades Ahead",
"assumption": "There is a compelling case that extraordinary or accelerated technological progress is very likely in the coming decades.",
"lines": [
"assay1:175-176"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A34_AppleBlockingExample",
"title": "Apple Blocking Example",
"assumption": "Apple's decision to block iOS apps from using Dropbox illustrates the power of mobile gatekeepers to hinder even large companies when their actions conflict with the gatekeeper's business model.",
"lines": [
"assay14:528-533"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A34_IndividualActionMattersForTechnologyTiming",
"title": "Individual Action Matters for Technology Timing",
"assumption": "It matters significantly when radical technologies are developed, and individual actions can influence this timeline.",
"lines": [
"assay1:191-192"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A34_FasterGrowthPotentialExists",
"title": "Faster Growth Potential Exists",
"assumption": "Massive companies can be built very quickly today compared to the past, due to factors like increased internet/mobile usage and cloud computing.",
"lines": [
"assay6:250-255"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A34_ThoriumSecret",
"title": "Thorium's Underexploration",
"assumption": "Thorium is a big secret because it has been underexplored for political reasons.",
"lines": [
"assay9:271-271",
"assay9:333-334"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A35_BoardSelectionImportance",
"title": "Board Selection Importance",
"assumption": "Selecting board members for a company is critically important, akin to choosing a marriage partner, and should focus on finding individuals who can help rather than hinder, especially during crises.",
"lines": [
"assay14:537-541"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A35_FocusingSolelyOnInevitabilityLeadsToComplacency",
"title": "Focusing Solely on Inevitability Leads to Complacency",
"assumption": "Focusing only on the inevitability of the singularity is dangerous because it can lead to complacency about existing systems and obstacles that hinder progress.",
"lines": [
"assay1:212-214"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A35_GovernmentNuclearFocus",
"title": "Government Nuclear Focus",
"assumption": "The government was primarily interested in building nuclear bombs, not generating power, in the 1940s.",
"lines": [
"assay9:276-277"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A35_JoiningStartupIsInvestment",
"title": "Joining a Startup is an Investment",
"assumption": "When you join or start a startup, you are essentially investing in it.",
"lines": [
"assay6:260-261"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A35_MythologicalOverlap",
"title": "Classical Mythology Overlaps with Founder Distribution",
"assumption": "classical mythology overlaps with the inverted bell curve distribution.",
"lines": [
"assay0:130"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_FounderDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A36_BoardSizeEffectiveness",
"title": "Board Size and Effectiveness",
"assumption": "A small board (ideally three people) is more effective for decision-making and oversight due to better coordination, while a large board tends to be ineffective and grants more power to management.",
"lines": [
"assay14:543-549"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A36_DecliningNeedForNuclearWeapons",
"title": "Declining Need for Nuclear Weapons",
"assumption": "There is a sense today that we really don’t need any more nuclear weapons.",
"lines": [
"assay9:281-282"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A36_PerverseIncentivesThwartScientificProgress",
"title": "Perverse Incentives Thwart Scientific Progress",
"assumption": "Many perverse incentives within current systems can thwart or frustrate scientists working on radical technologies.",
"lines": [
"assay1:214-215"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A36_VCEggsInStartupBasket",
"title": "VC Eggs in Startup Basket",
"assumption": "VCs' investments in a company mean their 'eggs are in that basket' too, due to the power law distribution.",
"lines": [
"assay6:262-265"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A36_AncientConflictResolution",
"title": "Ancient Cultures Resolved Conflict Through Scapegoating",
"assumption": "Where warring civilizations didn’t just collapse entirely, the most common resolution involved polarizing and channeling all the hostility into one particular person.",
"lines": [
"assay0:144-146"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
]
},
{
"key": "A37_GovernmentEntanglementWithCleantech",
"title": "Government Entanglement with Cleantech",
"assumption": "There has been a great deal of government entanglement with energy and cleantech in recent years.",
"lines": [
"assay9:357-358"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A37_ReformIsNecessaryToRealizeGoals",
"title": "Reform is Necessary to Realize Goals",
"assumption": "Reforming existing systems and institutions (like the FDA) is crucial for better realizing technological goals.",
"lines": [
"assay1:218-221"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A37_StartupStruggle",
"title": "Startups are Difficult",
"assumption": "Startups inherently face numerous crises and difficulties ('sausage factories') behind the scenes, requiring resilience and good people in leadership.",
"lines": [
"assay14:555-561"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A37_VCVsPrivateEquityReturns",
"title": "VC vs Private Equity Returns",
"assumption": "VC differs from private equity, which aims for consistent modest (2x-3x) returns.",
"lines": [
"assay6:265-267"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A38_GovernmentSalesDifficulty",
"title": "Difficulty of Government Sales",
"assumption": "Selling into government is quite difficult.",
"lines": [
"assay9:361-362"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A38_ProRataBacktestingIntuition",
"title": "Pro Rata Backtesting Intuition",
"assumption": "The intuition from Roelof Botha supports the claim that exercising pro rata rights in up rounds led by smart VCs is a good strategy, specifically for the best VCs.",
"lines": [
"assay6:271-273"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_ProRataParticipationRights",
"Def_UpRound",
"Def_SmartVC"
]
},
{
"key": "A38_SoftwareCoreNecessary",
"title": "Software at the Core is Necessary",
"assumption": "While other factors are important, having software at the core of a company is a necessary condition for success in the modern tech landscape.",
"lines": [
"assay14:565-566"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A39_GovernmentSubsidyDifficulty",
"title": "Difficulty of Obtaining Government Subsidies",
"assumption": "Getting government subsidies—at least in large amounts—is even harder than selling to the government.",
"lines": [
"assay9:362-363"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A39_InnovationComesFromMultipleSources",
"title": "Innovation Comes From Multiple Sources",
"assumption": "Technological innovation arises from both top-down and bottom-up efforts.",
"lines": [
"assay1:233-234"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A39_ProblemCompaniesTakeMoreTime",
"title": "Problem Companies Take More Time",
"assumption": "Paradoxically, problem portfolio companies can require more VC time than successful ones.",
"lines": [
"assay6:338-339"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A39_ProductPersonCEO",
"title": "Product-Oriented CEO Advantage",
"assumption": "Ideally, the CEO of a software company is a 'product person' who can prioritize engineering and prevent the company from becoming service-driven by sales demands.",
"lines": [
"assay14:569-577"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A40_GovernmentReplacementDifficulty",
"title": "Difficulty of Replacing Government",
"assumption": "Replacing government with technology is tricky.",
"lines": [
"assay9:363-364"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A40_SalespersonCEOEffect",
"title": "Salesperson CEO Effect",
"assumption": "When a salesperson replaces a product-oriented person as CEO, a company may optimize for short-term gains (2-4 years) but potentially sacrifice long-term product direction.",
"lines": [
"assay14:586-588"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A40_SocialOpinionInhibitsPotentialVisionaries",
"title": "Social Opinion Inhibits Potential Visionaries",
"assumption": "Many potential visionaries, even wealthy ones, are held back from pursuing radical technology by social pressure, fear of ridicule, and emotional blockades.",
"lines": [
"assay1:243-249"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A40_UpRoundsAreGenerallyGood",
"title": "Up Rounds Are Generally Good",
"assumption": "Even factoring in dilution, a company tends to do well if every funding round is an up round.",
"lines": [
"assay6:281-281"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_UpRound"
]
},
{
"key": "A41_DesignImportance",
"title": "Increasing Importance of Design",
"assumption": "Design is becoming increasingly important in tech companies, particularly software-intensive design that goes beyond surface aesthetics.",
"lines": [
"assay14:595-602"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A41_MainstreamOpinionFormersArePivotal",
"title": "Mainstream Opinion Formers Are Pivotal",
"assumption": "Mainstream opinion formers are crucially important for furthering radical technology by influencing public discourse and enabling others.",
"lines": [
"assay1:251-254"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A41_USBudgetDeficit",
"title": "U.S. Budget Deficit",
"assumption": "The U.S. budget deficit is currently running about 10% of GDP.",
"lines": [
"assay9:367-367"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A41_DownRoundsDamageRelationships",
"title": "Down Rounds Damage Relationships",
"assumption": "A single down round tends to be disastrous due to the destruction of relationships among pertinent parties.",
"lines": [
"assay6:281-284"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DownRound"
]
},
{
"key": "A42_FutureGovernmentFunds",
"title": "Future Resource Constraints for Government Funds",
"assumption": "Money will be even tighter for the government in the future.",
"lines": [
"assay9:370-370"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A42_MiddleScaleGroupsDriveChange",
"title": "Middle-Scale Groups Drive Change",
"assumption": "Significant societal change often comes not from lone geniuses or large institutions, but from middle-sized 'tribes' characterized by dependency and trust.",
"lines": [
"assay1:257-268"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A42_HugeValuationRisk",
"title": "Huge Valuation Risk",
"assumption": "Taking a very large valuation from a not-so-intelligent investor should only happen if it's the final funding round.",
"lines": [
"assay6:284-287"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A42_UniversityResearchSource",
"title": "University Research as Source",
"assumption": "University research labs (like Stanford and MIT) are a significant source of future product ideas and technologies for at least the next few years.",
"lines": [
"assay14:604-609"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A43_BoardImportance",
"title": "Board of Directors is Crucial",
"assumption": "The importance of the board of directors cannot be overstated; every single person on your board matters.",
"lines": [
"assay5:252-253"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "A43_CEOIsLearnedSkill",
"title": "CEO Skill is Learnable",
"assumption": "Being a successful CEO is a learnable skill, not solely an innate quality, although psychological suitability is a factor.",
"lines": [
"assay14:614-615",
"assay14:620-621"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A43_NecessityOfABigBreakthrough",
"title": "Necessity of a Big Breakthrough",
"assumption": "A big breakthrough is needed in cleantech.",
"lines": [
"assay9:381-382"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
]
},
{
"key": "A43_RadicalTechnologyRequiresFundingNetworks",
"title": "Radical Technology Requires Funding Networks",
"assumption": "Individuals pursuing truly radical technology must fit within established networks of funding (entrepreneurial, philanthropic, or public).",
"lines": [
"assay1:274-277"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A43_VCEggsInStartupBasket",
"title": "Fractal Power Law",
"assumption": "The power law distribution curve is fairly fractal-like across different stages/sizes of investment.",
"lines": [
"assay6:289-292"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A44_ManagingManagersKey",
"title": "Managing Managers Skill",
"assumption": "A key step in learning to be a CEO is learning to manage managers, as this skill is scalable unlike directly managing individuals.",
"lines": [
"assay14:621-623"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A44_PhilanthropicSupportIsKeyForEarlyRadicalTechnology",
"title": "Philanthropic Support is Key for Early Radical Technology",
"assumption": "Philanthropic support is currently and will likely remain the largest source of funding for early-stage radical technology development for some time.",
"lines": [
"assay1:277-279"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A44_VCsNeedToRaiseMoney",
"title": "VC Firm Depends on Next Investment",
"assumption": "A VC firm's success depends heavily on its next investment.",
"lines": [
"assay6:448-448"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A45_AngelMarketSaturation",
"title": "Angel Market Saturation",
"assumption": "The angel investment landscape is somewhat saturated, especially after the JOBS Act.",
"lines": [
"assay6:297-299"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A45_NonProductCEORisk",
"title": "Risk of Non-Product CEOs",
"assumption": "Hiring an external CEO who is not the product person who built the company is riskier for investors, though it can lead to greater payoff if successful.",
"lines": [
"assay14:617-620"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A45_PublicOpinionAffectsPublicFunding",
"title": "Public Opinion Affects Public Funding",
"assumption": "Changes in public opinion will influence elected officials to fund technologies that people desire.",
"lines": [
"assay1:279-281"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A46_AngelInvestorPowerLawAwareness",
"title": "Angel Investor Power Law Awareness",
"assumption": "Some believe angel investors are less aware of power law dynamics, leading them to overestimate companies.",
"lines": [
"assay6:299-301"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A46_DilbertViewWrong",
"title": "Dilbert View Incorrect",
"assumption": "The 'Dilbert' perspective that management is incompetent and unimportant is wrong; good management is essential for highly successful companies.",
"lines": [
"assay14:626-630"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A46_ProgressEmergesFromInterconnectedIdeas",
"title": "Progress Emerges from Interconnected Ideas",
"assumption": "Progress emerges from numerous interconnected sources, where ideas build upon each other, even if initially unrelated.",
"lines": [
"assay1:283-286"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A47_ExperiencedBasedHiring",
"title": "Founder Vs. VC Desires",
"assumption": "Most founders would dislike being VCs and vice versa, as founders typically desire control (which VCs lack) and VCs enjoy having opinions without execution responsibility (which founders bear).",
"lines": [
"assay14:634-640"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A47_PastPredictionsWereOftenWrong",
"title": "Past Predictions Were Often Wrong",
"assumption": "Predictions about the future made in the past have frequently turned out to be incorrect.",
"lines": [
"assay1:290"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A47_VCFundedMortalityRate",
"title": "VC-Funded Mortality Rate",
"assumption": "Venture-funded businesses have a 50% mortality rate (half go to zero).",
"lines": [
"assay6:303-304"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A48_GrowthInvestmentStrategy",
"title": "Growth Investment Strategy",
"assumption": "Some investors (later stage) aim for 3-5x returns with a lower mortality rate, but this model is still subject to a less steep power law.",
"lines": [
"assay6:305-309"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A48_StartupExperienceLearning",
"title": "Learning from Startup Experience",
"assumption": "Joining a small startup or even a large, well-run company like Facebook or Airbnb can provide valuable learning about how companies operate, though experiencing failure or deep dysfunction (like IBM in 1991) can also be educational.",
"lines": [
"assay14:646-652",
"assay14:662-668"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A49_BigCoExperienceLimited",
"title": "Big Company Experience Limited",
"assumption": "Working at large, well-oiled companies like Microsoft or Google may paradoxically limit the ability to learn about starting companies from scratch because things 'just work' and employees are shielded from raw startup processes.",
"lines": [
"assay14:657-661"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A49_50MLimitIsNonsense",
"title": "$50M Limit is Nonsense",
"assumption": "The idea that a business is intrinsically limited to a size like $50m is false.",
"lines": [
"assay6:313-314"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A49_PredictingTheDistantFutureUsedToBeDifficult",
"title": "Predicting the Distant Future Used to Be Difficult",
"assumption": "It was historically challenging to predict the far future.",
"lines": [
"assay1:301"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A50_LowAspirationsAreFine(WithoutVC)",
"title": "Low Aspirations Are Fine (Without VC)",
"assumption": "It is acceptable to have aspirations for a smaller company ($50m), but one should not take venture capital with such plans.",
"lines": [
"assay6:318-320"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A50_SubstanceOverProcess",
"title": "Substance Over Process",
"assumption": "When deciding what to do or where to work in the tech industry, focusing on what you believe in and what you think will fundamentally work (the substance) is more important than focusing on the company's stage or typical career paths (the process).",
"lines": [
"assay14:669-673"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A50_PredictingLate2020sIsComparativelyEasy",
"title": "Predicting the Late 2020s is Relatively Easy",
"assumption": "It may be easier to predict the state of the world in the late 2020s compared to past ability to predict similar future timeframes.",
"lines": [
"assay1:301-303"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A51_Predicting2040IsUnusuallyHard",
"title": "Predicting 2040 is Unusually Hard",
"assumption": "Making any definitive statement about the year 2040 is unusually difficult.",
"lines": [
"assay1:303-304"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A51_PowerLawFirmOutcomes",
"title": "Power Law Firm Outcomes",
"assumption": "Outcomes for companies in the tech industry follow a power law distribution, meaning a small number of companies achieve vastly disproportionate success, making selecting the 'best' company critical.",
"lines": [
"assay14:670-671"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "A51_SellingPlanIsARedFlag",
"title": "Selling Plan is a Red Flag",
"assumption": "Indicating a plan to sell a company for a specific amount in a short timeframe raises a big red flag for VCs.",
"lines": [
"assay6:322-324"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A52_ModernForecastsPrioritizeCredibilityOverAccuracy",
"title": "Modern Forecasts Prioritize Credibility Over Accuracy",
"assumption": "Modern forecasts of the future often prioritize appearing credible over making reasonably accurate predictions.",
"lines": [
"assay1:309"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A52_SidewaysCompaniesWasteVCBoardSeats",
"title": "Sideways Companies Waste VC Board Seats",
"assumption": "A company that is not growing (\"going sideways\") wastes an investor's board seat.",
"lines": [
"assay6:326-328"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A53_BoardSeatCapacityIsLimited",
"title": "Board Seat Capacity is Limited",
"assumption": "Investors can only manage a limited number of board seats effectively.",
"lines": [
"assay6:328-329"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A53_DisagreementDoesNotInvalidateTheProject",
"title": "Disagreement Does Not Invalidate the Project",
"assumption": "The existence of various perspectives on how long progress will take or how fast it can go does not invalidate the effort to think about these questions.",
"lines": [
"assay1:315-316"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A54_FutureWillBeAMixOfScienceAndEngineering",
"title": "Future Will Be a Mix of Science and Engineering",
"assumption": "The development of the future will involve a combination of scientific discovery and engineering implementation.",
"lines": [
"assay1:321-326"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A54_UnequalOutcomesCreateReputationalCosts",
"title": "Unequal Outcomes Create Reputational Costs",
"assumption": "The public perception vs. reality of VC focus (equal attention vs. power law focus) leads to reputational costs for VCs.",
"lines": [
"assay6:331-336"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A55_ScienceIsMoreImportantThanEngineeringForFuture",
"title": "Science is More Important Than Engineering for Future",
"assumption": "For the future, science matters more than engineering, though engineering is often easier to discuss.",
"lines": [
"assay1:328-329"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A55_ProblemCompaniesTakeMoreTime",
"title": "Problem Companies Take More Time",
"assumption": "Paradoxically, problem portfolio companies can require more VC time than successful ones.",
"lines": [
"assay6:338-339"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A56_KnowledgeAggregationIsAProblem",
"title": "Knowledge Aggregation is a Problem",
"assumption": "It is difficult or impossible for individuals to know everything, leading to overlapping or redundant efforts.",
"lines": [
"assay1:333-335"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A56_BootstrappingVsVC",
"title": "Bootstrapping vs. VC",
"assumption": "Bootstrapping (funding a business through revenues) is an alternative to taking VC funding.",
"lines": [
"assay6:343-345"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A57_ComputersCanImproveKnowledgeOrganization",
"title": "Computers Can Improve Knowledge Organization",
"assumption": "Computers have the potential to better organize knowledge and streamline human efforts in science and engineering.",
"lines": [
"assay1:335-337"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A57_VCBorrowAgainstFutureGrowth",
"title": "VC Borrow Against Future Growth",
"assumption": "VC allows companies to 'borrow against future growth' by funding plans now rather than waiting for revenue to accumulate.",
"lines": [
"assay6:346-348"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A58_MooreLawWillLikelyContinue",
"title": "Moore's Law Will Likely Continue",
"assumption": "Moore's Law, which describes the exponential growth in computing power, is likely to continue holding true for hardware.",
"lines": [
"assay1:340"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A58_VCHelpsWithSpeed",
"title": "VC Helps with Speed",
"assumption": "If competition requires fast execution, VC can help a company move quickly.",
"lines": [
"assay6:348-350"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A59_SoftwareEngineeringProgressIsLinear",
"title": "Software Engineering Progress is Linear",
"assumption": "The process of software engineering and collaboration is improving only linearly.",
"lines": [
"assay1:341-342"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A59_VCValueAddExists",
"title": "VC Value-Add Exists",
"assumption": "VCs provide non-monetary value-add to portfolio companies.",
"lines": [
"assay6:358-358"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A60_LinearGrowthCanLeadToExponentialGrowth",
"title": "Linear Growth Can Lead to Exponential Growth",
"assumption": "Linear growth in certain capabilities can enable breakthroughs that lead to feedback loops and phase transitions resulting in exponential growth.",
"lines": [
"assay1:346-350"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A60_PersonalFitMatters",
"title": "Personal Fit Matters",
"assumption": "The personal relationship and trust with a VC firm are important for founders.",
"lines": [
"assay6:359-361"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A61_TimingMattersForAction",
"title": "Timing Matters for Action",
"assumption": "In practice, the timing of technological development is very important, influencing whether it makes sense to work on something now.",
"lines": [
"assay1:354-355"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A61_VCNameAddsValue",
"title": "VC Name Adds Value",
"assumption": "Being backed by certain VC firms adds value through signaling and reputation, independent of specific introductions or advice.",
"lines": [
"assay6:363-366"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A62_ThereAreSteppingStonesToGoals",
"title": "There Are Stepping-Stones to Goals",
"assumption": "Achieving eventual goals, like traveling to the moon, requires intermediate steps or 'stepping-stones'.",
"lines": [
"assay1:365-367"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A62_VCStrategicDirectionHelp",
"title": "VC Strategic Direction Help",
"assumption": "VCs can help entrepreneurs think through strategic questions based on past experience with similar problems.",
"lines": [
"assay6:366-369"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A63_LongTermGoalsHelpOrganizeTrajectories",
"title": "Long-Term Goals Help Organize Trajectories",
"assumption": "Defining a long-term goal is necessary to evaluate and prioritize competing technological trajectories.",
"lines": [
"assay1:370-372"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A63_InnovationStillExists",
"title": "Innovation Still Exists",
"assumption": "There is not a lack of innovation, even with smaller ($50m) companies.",
"lines": [
"assay6:375-377"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A64_SightsShouldBeSetLargeForHumanitarianReasons",
"title": "Sights Should Be Set Large for Humanitarian Reasons",
"assumption": "Humanitarian considerations necessitate setting ambitious goals for technological development, such as in anti-aging science.",
"lines": [
"assay1:377-378"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A64_VCsDontDriveCompanyActivity",
"title": "VCs Don't Drive Company Activity",
"assumption": "Investors generally do not have a strong effect on what companies actually do or push them towards specific ideas.",
"lines": [
"assay6:383-384"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A65_GreatFoundersAreIntrinsicallyMotivated",
"title": "Founders Solves Problems",
"assumption": "Most good founders are motivated by solving problems that frustrate them, rather than purely financial calculations.",
"lines": [
"assay6:387-390"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A65_DeteriorationOfCapabilitiesOccurs",
"title": "Deterioration of Capabilities Occurs",
"assumption": "Certain complex capabilities (e.g., building a culturally nuanced system like the U.S. Constitution) can be lost over time.",
"lines": [
"assay1:391-395"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A66_AppliedHistoryIsUnderrated",
"title": "Applied History is Underrated",
"assumption": "Studying and applying historical lessons is not sufficiently valued.",
"lines": [
"assay1:395-396"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A66_GreatFoundersAreHesitantToSell",
"title": "Great Founders Are Hesitant to Sell",
"assumption": "The people who build truly great companies are usually hesitant to sell them, almost necessarily.",
"lines": [
"assay6:392-394"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A67_MoneyMotivationVsPowerLawSuccess",
"title": "Money Motivation vs. Power Law Success",
"assumption": "People heavily motivated by money are paradoxically never the ones who make the most money in the power law world.",
"lines": [
"assay6:395-396"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "A67_TrendsEventuallyHitLimits",
"title": "Trends Eventually Hit Limits",
"assumption": "No technological or progress trend can continue indefinitely without encountering limitations.",
"lines": [
"assay1:398-399"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A68_YCombinatorSelectivity",
"title": "Y Combinator Selectivity",
"assumption": "Y Combinator succeeds in part by selecting from a very strong applicant pool.",
"lines": [
"assay6:406-407"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A68_WeHaventHitFundamentalPhysicalLimitsYet",
"title": "We Haven't Hit Fundamental Physical Limits Yet",
"assumption": "We are not currently facing fundamental limitations imposed by physical laws that would stop exponential progress.",
"lines": [
"assay1:409-410"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A69_NonYCombinatorIncubatorSignal",
"title": "Non-Y Combinator Incubator Signal",
"assumption": "Attending an incubator that is not Y Combinator is perceived as a negative credential.",
"lines": [
"assay6:409-414"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A69_ProgressDeceleratesAtSomePoint",
"title": "Progress Decelerates at Some Point",
"assumption": "At some point, the rate of technological progress will decelerate.",
"lines": [
"assay1:412"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A70_NecessityDrivesInvention",
"title": "Necessity Drives Invention",
"assumption": "The presence of unmet needs or problems ('necessity') drives the creation of new solutions ('invention').",
"lines": [
"assay1:413"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A70_FoundersMatterMoreThanIdeas",
"title": "Founders Matter More Than Ideas",
"assumption": "VCs primarily back founders over ideas.",
"lines": [
"assay6:416-416"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A71_IdeasIndicateFounderThinking",
"title": "Ideas Indicate Founder Thinking",
"assumption": "Ideas are indicative of how founders can think.",
"lines": [
"assay6:416-417"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A71_ThereWillAlwaysBeNewExponentialCurves",
"title": "There Will Always Be New Exponential Curves",
"assumption": "When one area of exponential progress decelerates, new areas and corresponding exponential curves will emerge.",
"lines": [
"assay1:414-415"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A72_CoreEmotionsAffectTechnologyEvaluation",
"title": "Core Emotions Affect Technology Evaluation",
"assumption": "Core human emotions, such as fear and empathy, play a significant role in how people evaluate technological change.",
"lines": [
"assay1:419-420"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A72_RelentlesslyResourcefulIsKey",
"title": "Relentlessly Resourceful is Key",
"assumption": "The combination of relentlessly and resourcefulness is key in founders.",
"lines": [
"assay6:417-420"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A73_AppealingToHumanisticSideCanPromoteTranshumanism",
"title": "Appealing to Humanistic Side Can Promote Transhumanism",
"assumption": "Highlighting the potential of transhumanist ideas to alleviate suffering can effectively interest and comfort people.",
"lines": [
"assay1:423-426"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
]
},
{
"key": "A73_RareProblemSolvers",
"title": "Rare Problem Solvers",
"assumption": "It is very rare to find people who clearly and concisely identify a problem and formulate a coherent solution.",
"lines": [
"assay6:422-423"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A74_FocusOnFoundingTeam",
"title": "Focus on Founding Team",
"assumption": "It is very important for VCs to drill down on the founding team.",
"lines": [
"assay6:425-425"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A74_TranshumanismAimsToAlleviateSuffering",
"title": "Transhumanism Aims to Alleviate Suffering",
"assumption": "Certain aspects of fully realized transhumanism would significantly reduce suffering.",
"lines": [
"assay1:424-425"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
]
},
{
"key": "A75_AppealingToIndividualFreedomCanPromoteTranshumanism",
"title": "Appealing to Individual Freedom Can Promote Transhumanism",
"assumption": "Appealing to the idea of individual freedom can be an argument for embracing aspects of transhumanism.",
"lines": [
"assay1:430-431"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
]
},
{
"key": "A75_FounderChoicesRevealCharacter",
"title": "Founder Choices Reveal Character",
"assumption": "Asking founders about key life decisions reveals a lot about them.",
"lines": [
"assay6:427-429"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A76_FearOfFreedomExists",
"title": "Fear of Freedom Exists",
"assumption": "Some people are generally afraid of freedom.",
"lines": [
"assay1:431-432"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A76_HedgehogsBetterThanFoxes",
"title": "Hedgehogs Better Than Foxes",
"assumption": "In business, it is better to be a 'hedgehog' (know one big thing) than a 'fox' (know many little things), although knowing little things is also good.",
"lines": [
"assay6:434-439"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A77_AppealingToWonderCanPromoteTranshumanism",
"title": "Appealing to Wonder Can Promote Transhumanism",
"assumption": "Highlighting the sense of wonder and untapped potential can be an effective way to promote transhumanist ideas.",
"lines": [
"assay1:434-435"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
]
},
{
"key": "A77_IdentifyingSmartVCs",
"title": "Identifying Smart VCs",
"assumption": "'Smart VCs' are the usual, well-known top-tier firms.",
"lines": [
"assay6:442-442"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_SmartVC"
]
},
{
"key": "A78_HumansAreMissingPotentialCapabilities",
"title": "Humans Are Missing Potential Capabilities",
"assumption": "Similar to individuals with certain disabilities, humans as a whole are likely missing out on a great many potential experiences or capabilities.",
"lines": [
"assay1:436-440"
],
"essayRefs": [
" assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A79_EveryNewThingIsSingular",
"title": "Every New Thing is Singular",
"assumption": "There is something uniquely singular about every new thing that is created in the world.",
"lines": [
"assay1:451-452"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_ZeroToOne"
]
},
{
"key": "A79_FailureIsPossibleWithVC",
"title": "Failure is Possible with VC",
"assumption": "Entrepreneurs who have previously failed can still raise venture capital.",
"lines": [
"assay6:450-450"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A80_ConventionalWisdomIsWrong",
"title": "Conventional Wisdom is Wrong",
"assumption": "The conventional advice to follow a predefined path and be conventional is incorrect and limits individual potential.",
"lines": [
"assay1:459"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A80_FailureStigmaMitigationInUS",
"title": "Failure Stigma Mitigation in US",
"assumption": "Failure is not as stigmatized in the U.S. (particularly Silicon Valley) as in some other places (like France).",
"lines": [
"assay6:452-455"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A80_SocietalEncouragementIsTowardsConformity",
"title": "Societal Encouragement is Towards Conformity",
"assumption": "People are constantly encouraged by society to play it safe and be conventional.",
"lines": [
"assay1:455"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A81_FailureStillHasCosts",
"title": "Failure Still Has Costs",
"assumption": "Failure still has a reasonably high cost.",
"lines": [
"assay6:457-457"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A81_ManySecretsRemainToBeUncovered",
"title": "Many Secrets Remain to Be Uncovered",
"assumption": "There are still many important secrets and unknown areas of human knowledge waiting to be discovered.",
"lines": [
"assay1:463-464"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A82_ReasonForFailureMatters",
"title": "Reason for Failure Matters",
"assumption": "Whether an entrepreneur can raise VC after failure depends heavily on the reason for the failure.",
"lines": [
"assay6:459-460"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A82_ThereAreOpportunitiesForDiscovery",
"title": "There Are Opportunities for Discovery",
"assumption": "It is possible for individuals to go and discover new knowledge and fill in the 'blank spaces' on the map of human understanding.",
"lines": [
"assay1:464-466"
],
"essayRefs": [
" assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A83_FailureCanImproveEntrepreneurs",
"title": "Failure Can Improve Entrepreneurs",
"assumption": "Experiencing failure can make an entrepreneur better if they learn from it.",
"lines": [
"assay6:464-466"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A83_EveryMomentIsAnOpportunity",
"title": "Every Moment is an Opportunity",
"assumption": "Every single moment presents an opportunity to explore new possibilities and places.",
"lines": [
"assay1:466-467"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A84_FundingTeamsOfOne",
"title": "Funding Teams of One",
"assumption": "VCs can fund teams of one founder.",
"lines": [
"assay6:468-468"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A84_SomeMomentsAreMoreAuspicious",
"title": "Some Moments Are More Auspicious",
"assumption": "While there isn't one single 'right' time to start something new, some times or moments feel more favorable or promising.",
"lines": [
"assay1:469-470"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "A85_OptimalFoundingTeamSize",
"title": "Optimal Founding Team Size",
"assumption": "A core founding team of two with equal shares or one brilliant founder works well; four is too many.",
"lines": [
"assay6:471-474"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "A86_CoFoundersHelpInPowerLawWorld",
"title": "Co-Founders Help in Power Law World",
"assumption": "Adding co-founders is likely to increase the probability of a successful (high) outcome significantly, making it worthwhile despite equity dilution in a power law context.",
"lines": [
"assay6:475-479"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
}
]
},
{
"catalogType": "lemmas",
"items": [
{
"key": "L_AbilityToExecuteImportant",
"title": "Ability To Execute Important",
"lemma": "The ability to execute against a long-term secret plan is incredibly powerful and important.",
"lines": [
"assay12:417-421"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_CompanyWithPlanUndervalued"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AchievabilityOfEndGoalAffectsEngagement",
"title": "Realism of End Goal Affects Engagement",
"lemma": "If the achievability of a long-term goal seems too speculative with many required milestones, it can deter people from becoming engaged.",
"lines": [
"assay1:379-381"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AcknowledgingSkillPerceivedBadly",
"title": "Acknowledging Skill Perceived Badly",
"lemma": "A successful entrepreneur claiming success is fully attributable to skill would be perceived negatively.",
"lines": [
"assay12:30-34"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_BiasTowardsLuck"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AirCompressionStorage",
"title": "Air Compression Energy Storage",
"lemma": "Storing energy by compressing air (a physics problem) is a radically different approach to chemical storage (batteries) that may be promising.",
"lines": [
"assay10:64-66"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A3_RevisitingUnderexploredAreas",
"L_EnergyStorageProblem"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AirlinesNotGreat",
"title": "Airline Industry Lacks Greatness",
"lemma": "Despite creating value (public benefit, employment), the airline industry includes no truly great companies because they have historically failed to capture significant value.",
"lines": [
"assay4:29-35"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_GreatCompany"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AlwaysFormDefinitePlan",
"title": "Always Form Definite Plan",
"lemma": "You can always form a definite plan even in the most indefinite of worlds.",
"lines": [
"assay12:458-460"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective",
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AnticompetitionIsASecurity",
"title": "Anti-competition as a Secret",
"lemma": "The idea that capitalism and competition are antonyms is an important truth that most people disagree with, making it a secret.",
"lines": [
"assay13:37-42"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ImportantTruthCriterion",
"A2_SecretsAreImportant"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AppealingToHumanPotentialAndWonderPromotesTranshumanism",
"title": "Appealing to Human Potential and Wonder Promotes Transhumanism",
"lemma": "Framing transhumanist goals in terms of human potential and the sense of wonder about capabilities we might be missing can effectively make the ideas more appealing.",
"lines": [
"assay1:436-440"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A77_AppealingToWonderCanPromoteTranshumanism",
"A78_HumansAreMissingPotentialCapabilities"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AppealingToWonderCanPromoteTranshumanism",
"title": "Appealing to Wonder Can Promote Transhumanism",
"lemma": "Highlighting the sense of wonder and untapped potential can be an effective way to promote transhumanist ideas.",
"lines": [
"assay1:434-435"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A77_AppealingToWonderCanPromoteTranshumanism"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AppleAntithesisFinance",
"title": "Apple (Antithesis of Finance)",
"lemma": "Apple is the absolute antithesis of finance, characterized by deliberate design, defined strategy, and multi-year plans.",
"lines": [
"assay12:449-452"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_FinancePeakIndeterminacy"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AuthenticityClaimsDontReflectReality",
"title": "Authenticity Claims Versus Reality",
"lemma": "While people insist on their authenticity and that they are resistant to influence like advertising, their behavior often shows a lack of differentiation, suggesting they are influenced by what others want.",
"lines": [
"assay7:82-85"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A8_AdvertisingWorks",
"A6_SellingInvolvesNonRationalElements"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AvoidCompetingOnSalary",
"title": "Avoid Competing Primarily on Salary",
"lemma": "Startups cannot compete with large companies like Google on salary alone and must offer a compelling vision and the opportunity to be instrumental in building something new.",
"lines": [
"assay15:343-347"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A31_EngineersAreCynical",
"A32_EngineersThinkNewIdeasAreDumb"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AvoidFlatOrDown",
"title": "Avoid Flat or Down Rounds",
"lemma": "Avoid increasing investment on a flat or down round, as these often indicate underlying problems with the company.",
"lines": [
"assay6:129-133"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_FlatRound",
"Def_DownRound"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A16_BacktestingHeuristic",
"A18_FlatRoundsIndicatingProblems"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AvoidSoftness",
"title": "Avoid Getting Soft",
"lemma": "Prioritizing niceness over qualification leads to mediocrity and loss of respect within the organization.",
"lines": [
"assay15:234-237"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_QuestioningTheBattle"
]
},
{
"key": "L_AvoidZeroSum",
"title": "Avoid Zero-Sum Situations",
"lemma": "To succeed, companies should focus on creating something others aren't doing, operating in non-zero-sum environments.",
"lines": [
"assay15:35-38"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_NonZeroSumBehavior"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_CompetitionIsBad",
"A5_HardWorkIsNeeded"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BadHiringIsCostly",
"title": "Cost of Bad Hiring",
"lemma": "Hiring the wrong people is highly problematic because firing is difficult and waiting too long is detrimental.",
"lines": [
"assay15:124-128"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A14_BadHiringDecisionsAreProblematic",
"A15_FiringIsLikeWar"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BadPlanBetterThanNoPlan",
"title": "A Bad Plan is Better Than No Plan",
"lemma": "Even a bad plan is better than no plan at all. Having no plan is chaotic.",
"lines": [
"assay11:289-291"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BatteryLimitations",
"title": "Battery Limitations",
"lemma": "Battery technology, while improved, appears to be reaching fundamental limits in terms of density, corrosion, and chemistry.",
"lines": [
"assay10:59-63"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_PastVisionsNotAchieved",
"L_EnergyStorageProblem"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BeliefInLuckIneffectiveTruth",
"title": "Belief in Luck (Ineffective)",
"lemma": "Belief in luck is an ineffective truth that stops people from doing things.",
"lines": [
"assay12:38-39"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_BiasTowardsLuck"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BeliefInSecretsEffectiveTruth",
"title": "Belief in Secrets (Effective)",
"lemma": "Belief in secrets is an effective truth.",
"lines": [
"assay12:37-38"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BestCompanyPaysForFund",
"title": "Best Company Pays for Fund",
"lemma": "To a first approximation, a VC portfolio will only make money if the best company investment ends up being worth more than the whole fund.",
"lines": [
"assay6:89-90"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A13_VCsNeedReturnsOver100%"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BestProductDoesNotAlwaysWin",
"title": "Best Product Does Not Always Win",
"lemma": "There is a rich history of instances where the best product did not, in fact, win.",
"lines": [
"assay7:9-14"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ProductSuccessNotEnsuredByQualityAlone",
"A2_ConventionalProductThinkingIncorrect"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BestBusinessRecipe",
"title": "Recipe for Valuable Businesses",
"lemma": "The best kind of business is thus one where you can tell a compelling story about the future...find a small target market, become the best in the world at serving it, take over immediately adjacent markets, widen the aperture of what you’re doing, and capture more and more.",
"lines": [
"assay4:211-217"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Brand",
"Def_ScaleCostAdvantages",
"Def_NetworkEffects",
"Def_ProprietaryTechnology"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A16_BuildingABrandCreatesMonopoly",
"A12_RationalityInMarketDefinition",
"A2_MonopoliesAccumulateCapital"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BiotechSuccessFactors",
"title": "Factors for Biotech Success",
"lemma": "Success in modern biotech involves addressing the computational aspects of biology, potentially reducing the scope of luck, and navigating the regulatory and investment landscape effectively.",
"lines": [
"assay1:112-115"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A5_ChallengesInTraditionalDrugDiscovery",
"A6_LimitationsOfTraditionalBiotechInvestmentModel",
"A7_RisingCostsOfTraditionalDrugDevelopment"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BubbleDebateItselfIsFlawed",
"title": "The Dominant 'Bubble vs. No Bubble' Debate Is an Unproductive Framework",
"lemma": "Both 'bubble thinking' and 'anti-bubble thinking' are flawed because they presuppose that truth is socially determined or a reaction to social trends, rather than derived from independent analysis.",
"lines": [
"assay2:313-316"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A12_BubbleAntiBubbleAssumeSocialTruth"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_ContrarianismIsRandomIfHerdUnthinking",
"L_NoCurrentBubbleDueToNoBelief"
]
},
{
"key": "L_BubbleTalkReflectsPastTrauma",
"title": "Current Tech Bubble Discourse Is More a Reflection of Past Trauma Than Present Analysis",
"lemma": "The narrative of a current tech bubble largely stems from people seeking a bubble due to overreaction to the pain of the ‘90s, rather than from sound analysis of current conditions.",
"lines": [
"assay2:307-309"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CSAsModelForRenewedProgress",
"title": "Computer Science as a Model for Renewed Progress",
"lemma": "Computer technology, characterized by sustained improvement and agile development, serves as a model for other industries and is a key driver of modern technological change.",
"lines": [
"assay3:29-31"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A4_ContinuedValidityOfComputingGrowthLaws"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_ComputingAsExceptionToDeceleration"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CSDeterminate",
"title": "Computer Science (Determinate)",
"lemma": "Computer Science is about as deterministic as you can get.",
"lines": [
"assay12:461-461"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ChallengesFromMarketEvolution",
"title": "Challenges From Market Evolution",
"lemma": "Significant challenges for the future of energy arise from factors like rapidly rising energy consumption in developing countries, inelastic oil prices, and difficulty finding direct substitutes.",
"lines": [
"assay9:256-259"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A13_CleantechMarketSize"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CleantechFailureReasons",
"title": "Reasons for Cleantech Failure",
"lemma": "Cleantech investment failed because companies and investors made mistakes across multiple critical areas for startup success, including market understanding, competition, secrecy, incrementalism, durability, teams, distribution, timing, financing, and luck.",
"lines": [
"assay9:137-140",
"assay9:148-156",
"assay9:165-172",
"assay9:175-179",
"assay9:188-199",
"assay9:215-230"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A12_FailureOfCleantechInvestment",
"A16_RequirementOfImportantSecretForStartups"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CleantechInnovationApproachCritique",
"title": "Critique of Cleantech Innovation Approach",
"lemma": "Cleantech has generally performed well on incremental technologies but failed on coordination (assuming luck) and largely avoided pursuing breakthrough technologies or asking the biggest questions.",
"lines": [
"assay9:213-214",
"assay9:215-222",
"assay9:228-230"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A18_PrevalenceOfIncrementalismInCleantech",
"A26_DistinctionBetweenInspirationAndIncrementalImprovement",
"A27_DifficultOfComplexCoordinationInCleantech",
"A43_NecessityOfABigBreakthrough"
],
"definitionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_CoFoundersCanMagnifyOutcomes",
"title": "Co-Founders Can Magnify Outcomes",
"lemma": "Having the right co-founders can significantly increase the potential outcome of a startup, making the equity dilution worthwhile in the context of a power law distribution.",
"lines": [
"assay6:475-479"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A84_FundingTeamsOfOne",
"A85_OptimalFoundingTeamSize",
"A86_CoFoundersHelpInPowerLawWorld"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompaniesExistToAddressCoordinationCosts",
"title": "Companies as Optimal Coordination Structures",
"lemma": "Companies exist because they represent an optimal structure for addressing and balancing internal and external coordination costs, as described by Coase Theorem.",
"lines": [
"assay3:121-122",
"assay3:130-131"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_CoaseTheoremCompanies"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A12_CoordinationCostDynamics"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompaniesWithPlansDontSell",
"title": "Companies With Plans Don't Sell",
"lemma": "Companies with really good plans typically do not sell because there is potential to do much more.",
"lines": [
"assay12:390-392"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompanyCultureCannotCreateCoreProperties",
"title": "Culture Cannot Create Core Properties",
"lemma": "Company culture cannot create talent, long-term thinking, or generative spirit; it can only reflect and enhance them.",
"lines": [
"assay15:119-122"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"def_talent",
"Def_LongTermOrientation",
"Def_GenerativeSpirit",
"Def_GoodCompanyCulture"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_TrustDissent",
"A12_TalentCannotBeCreated",
"A13_LongTermThinkingCannotBeCreated"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompanyWithPlanUndervalued",
"title": "Company With Plan Undervalued",
"lemma": "Any company with a good secret plan will always be undervalued in a world where nobody believes in secrets and nobody believes in plans.",
"lines": [
"assay12:413-416"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_InvestorsValueSecretPlansZero"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompetitionIsADisservice",
"title": "Competition Is a Disservice",
"lemma": "that does everyone a great disservice if what’s theoretically optimal is to manage to stop competing, i.e. to become a monopoly and enjoy success.",
"lines": [
"assay4:17-20"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Monopoly"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_CapitalismVersusCompetition",
"A2_MonopoliesAccumulateCapital",
"A3_PerfectCompetitionPreventsProfit",
"A4_CompetitionIsDeepRootedBias"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompetitionIsADisservice",
"title": "Competition Is a Disservice",
"lemma": "Competition is a zero-sum game people engage in when they are not focused on creating new value.",
"lines": [
"assay11:253-257"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompetitionIsDemoralizing",
"title": "Fierce Competition Is Demoralizing",
"lemma": "One problem with fierce competition is that it’s demoralizing.",
"lines": [
"assay4:58-62"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A4_CompetitionIsDeepRootedBias"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompetitionTraining",
"title": "Training for Competition",
"lemma": "Too often, we seem to forget that it’s genuine accomplishment we’re after, and we just train people to compete forever.",
"lines": [
"assay4:10-13"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A4_CompetitionIsDeepRootedBias"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CompensationOverTheLongTerm",
"title": "Compensation Over the Long Term",
"lemma": "Engineers cannot be motivated by money alone for long-term commitment; they need to love the work.",
"lines": [
"assay15:312-314"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A29_EngineersCannotSustainLongTermEffortForMoneyAlone"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ComputingAsExceptionToDeceleration",
"title": "Computing as an Exception to Tech Deceleration",
"lemma": "The computer industry has been a significant exception to the recent general deceleration in technological progress.",
"lines": [
"assay3:28-29"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A4_ContinuedValidityOfComputingGrowthLaws",
"L_RecentDecelerationOfGeneralTechnologicalProgress"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ConcentrationIsPreferred",
"title": "Concentration is Preferred",
"lemma": "Given a power law distribution, VCs should be fairly concentrated in their investments (e.g., 7-8 promising companies) rather than investing in a large number of companies unless the expected returns are extremely high.",
"lines": [
"assay6:98-100"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A14_LimitedHighConvictionBusinesses"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ConfessionsOfAMimeticWarlord",
"title": "Fighters Become Like Their Enemy",
"lemma": "When people are myopically focused on fighting, they lose sight of everything else. They begin to look very much like their enemy.",
"lines": [
"assay11:77-81"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ConventionsCanBecomeSecrets",
"title": "Conventions Can Become Secrets",
"lemma": "Acceptable conventions can get covered up and become secrets again.",
"lines": [
"assay13:43-44"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CoFoundersBenefitPowerLaw",
"title": "Co-Founders Can Magnify Outcomes",
"lemma": "Having the right co-founders can significantly increase the potential outcome of a startup, making the equity dilution worthwhile in the context of a power law distribution.",
"lines": [
"assay6:475-479"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A84_FundingTeamsOfOne",
"A85_OptimalFoundingTeamSize",
"A86_CoFoundersHelpInPowerLawWorld"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CounsylApproach",
"title": "Counsyl's Approach to Genetic Screening",
"lemma": "Counsyl focuses on a tractable and well-defined subset of genetic screening problems by offering a simple test for Mendelian diseases, aiming to become the default for pregnancy genetic screening.",
"lines": [
"assay1:119-134"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CritiqueOfCleantechInnovationApproach",
"title": "Critique of Cleantech Innovation Approach",
"lemma": "Cleantech has generally performed well on incremental technologies but failed on coordination (assuming luck) and largely avoided pursuing breakthrough technologies or asking the biggest questions.",
"lines": [
"assay9:213-214",
"assay9:215-222",
"assay9:228-230"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A18_PrevalenceOfIncrementalismInCleantech",
"A26_DistinctionBetweenInspirationAndIncrementalImprovement",
"A27_DifficultOfComplexCoordinationInCleantech",
"A43_NecessityOfABigBreakthrough"
],
"definitionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_CriticismStemsFromBiasAgainstChange",
"title": "Criticism of Predictions Stems From Bias Against Change",
"lemma": "Criticisms of predictions about rapid progress, such as in anti-aging, often do not identify substantive flaws but instead arise from an underlying bias towards stagnation.",
"lines": [
"assay1:122-126"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_PeopleProjectRelativeStagnation",
"A20_BiasTowardStagnationHindelrsBeliefInAcceleratedProgress"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CultureCannotCreateCoreProperties",
"title": "Culture Cannot Create Core Properties",
"lemma": "Company culture cannot create talent, long-term thinking, or generative spirit; it can only reflect and enhance them.",
"lines": [
"assay15:119-122"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"def_talent",
"Def_LongTermOrientation",
"Def_GenerativeSpirit",
"Def_GoodCompanyCulture"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_TrustDissent",
"A12_TalentCannotBeCreated",
"A13_LongTermThinkingCannotBeCreated"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CultureNuanceBeyondHomogeneityHeterogeneity",
"title": "Culture Nuance: Beyond Homogeneity/Heterogeneity",
"lemma": "Good company culture requires people to have relevant and unique commonalities or differences that align with the core mission, not just simple homogeneity or heterogeneity.",
"lines": [
"assay15:22-27"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_GoodCompanyCulture"
]
},
{
"key": "L_CultureSpectrum",
"title": "Company Culture Spectrum",
"lemma": "Company cultures lie on a spectrum from consultant-nihilism to cultish dogmatism; companies should aim for the middle, potentially closer to cult.",
"lines": [
"assay15:17-21"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A2_CultsDontWork",
"A3_ConsultingFirmsLackCulture"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_GoodCompanyCulture"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DarwinismIndeterminateOptimism",
"title": "Darwinism (Indeterminate Optimism)",
"lemma": "Darwin's theory of evolution is a metaphor for indeterminate optimism, suggesting progress through iterative processes.",
"lines": [
"assay12:360-363"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminateOptimism",
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DarwinismStartupProblems",
"title": "Darwinism Startup Problems",
"lemma": "Darwinism takes too long to work well for startups and is not necessarily experienced positively by participants.",
"lines": [
"assay12:435-440"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_DarwinismIndeterminateOptimism"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DefinitePlansUnderrated",
"title": "Definite Plans Underrated",
"lemma": "Definite plans tend to be underrated in today's startup culture.",
"lines": [
"assay12:441-443"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DelawareCCorpAdvantage",
"title": "Delaware C-Corp Advantages for Startups",
"lemma": "None is better for startups than C corporations, particularly due to ease of exits (IPO or sale) and clear/predictable Delaware business law.",
"lines": [
"assay5:102-108"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DesignCountercurrent",
"title": "Design Countercurrent",
"lemma": "The return of design is a large part of the countercurrent going against the dominating ethos of indeterminacy.",
"lines": [
"assay12:452-454"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_WellDesignedProductsImportant",
"L_FinancePeakIndeterminacy"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DeterminateHighInvestment",
"title": "Determinacy and High Investment",
"lemma": "In a determinate world, there are lots of things that people can do, leading to a high investment rate.",
"lines": [
"assay12:118-119"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective",
"Def_Investment"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DeterminateLeadsConviction",
"title": "Determinacy and Conviction",
"lemma": "If the future is determinate, it makes more sense to have firm convictions.",
"lines": [
"assay12:51-53"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DeterminateOptimismSense",
"title": "Determinate Optimism Makes Sense",
"lemma": "The determinate optimistic quadrant regarding energy futures makes the most sense, despite not being widely discussed today.",
"lines": [
"assay9:122-128",
"assay9:260-261",
"assay9:265-268",
"assay9:270-271",
"assay9:310-312",
"assay9:330-334"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A5_EnergyProductionNotNormallyDistributed",
"A6_powerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DifficultyInFindingSecretsDoesNotMeanAbsence",
"title": "Difficulty Does Not Mean Absence",
"lemma": "The difficulty in answering the question of what important truth people disagree with you on (i.e., finding secrets) does not mean that good answers or secrets don't exist.",
"lines": [
"assay13:160-165"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ImportantTruthCriterion",
"A6_SecretsAreSolvableProcesses"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DisagreementsMustSurface",
"title": "Surfacing Disagreements",
"lemma": "It is incredibly important to quickly surface internal disagreements to prevent damage from unresolved issues.",
"lines": [
"assay15:247-249"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_StartupsAreDestroyedInternally"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DisplacementIsPoliticalQuestion",
"title": "Displacement is Political Question",
"lemma": "The effect of displacement is the strange, almost political question that seems inextricably linked with the future of AI.",
"lines": [
"assay14:87-88"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DistributionAsDecisiveProblem",
"title": "Distribution as a Decisive Problem",
"lemma": "Ignoring or underestimating distribution problems, particularly connecting to the existing grid, has proven decisive in cleantech failures.",
"lines": [
"assay9:175-179",
"assay9:215-220"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_ImportanceOfDistributionForStartups",
"A21_DifficultyOfConnectingCleantechToTheGrid",
"A27_DifficultOfComplexCoordinationInCleantech"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DistributionIsASecurity",
"title": "Distribution as a Secret",
"lemma": "The fact that distribution is much more important than people think is an important truth that people involved in distribution hide, making it a secret.",
"lines": [
"assay13:58-61"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ImportantTruthCriterion",
"A2_SecretsAreImportant"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DistributionStrategy",
"title": "Distribution Strategy",
"lemma": "For high-cost enterprise or government sales, starting with small, good reference customers and building iteratively is a more effective distribution strategy than pursuing large initial contracts.",
"lines": [
"assay10:288-301"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A25_SellingToLargeEntities"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DiversityOfOpinion",
"title": "Strategic vs. Tactical Diversity",
"lemma": "Diversity of opinion is essential for significant, unknown problems (strategic) but detrimental for established tactical decisions where arguing impedes progress.",
"lines": [
"assay15:260-265"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DominantStartupEthosLuck",
"title": "Dominant Startup Ethos (Luck)",
"lemma": "The dominant ethos in the startup community is that luck plays a great deal of success.",
"lines": [
"assay12:29-30"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_BiasTowardsLuck"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DualFoundersAvoidScapegoating",
"title": "Dual Founders More Resistant to Scapegoating",
"lemma": "with multiple founders, it’s much harder to isolate a scapegoat... The more singular and isolated the founder, the more dangerous the scapegoating phenomenon.",
"lines": [
"assay0:307-311"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_ModernSac sacrificePersistence"
]
},
{
"key": "L_DurabilityEnablesLongTermValue",
"title": "Durability Necessary for Tech Value Realization",
"lemma": "The long-term value potential in tech/high growth companies can only be captured if the company demonstrates durability.",
"lines": [
"assay4:90-91"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_TechHighGrowthValuation",
"Def_LastingPermanent"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A15_DurabilityRequiredForLongTermValue"
]
},
{
"key": "L_EarlyTeamNonDiversity",
"title": "Early Team Non-Diversity",
"lemma": "Early startup teams should be as non-diverse as possible to minimize communication overhead and maximize speed, which is crucial for survival.",
"lines": [
"assay15:146-152"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A16_SpeedIsTheOnlyWeaponForStartups"
]
},
{
"key": "L_EconomicSuccessRequiresFindingSecrets",
"title": "Economic Success Requires Finding Secrets",
"lemma": "Knowing the difference between hard, possible things (secrets) and impossible things (mysteries) is the difference between pursuing lucrative ventures and guaranteed failure.",
"lines": [
"assay13:14-16"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"def_mystery",
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A5_ImpossibleTruthsAreMysteries",
"A6_SecretsAreSolvableProcesses"
]
},
{
"key": "L_EducationLimitsForZeroToOne",
"title": "Insufficiency of Traditional Education for 0-to-1 Innovation",
"lemma": "Traditional educational methods, which focus on 1 to n learning (imitation and repetition), and case studies of past successes are insufficient for teaching or fostering the 0 to 1 innovation required for startups.",
"lines": [
"assay3:69-73",
"assay3:80-82"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_1toNReplication",
"Def_0to1Innovation"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A8_Educations1ToNNature",
"L_StartupSuccessUniqueness"
]
},
{
"key": "L_EmotionalArgumentForFreedomIsDifficult",
"title": "Emotional Argument for Freedom in Transhumanism is Difficult",
"lemma": "Using the emotional argument for individual freedom to promote transhumanism is challenging because some people are fundamentally afraid of freedom itself.",
"lines": [
"assay1:430-432"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A75_AppealingToIndividualFreedomCanPromoteTranshumanism",
"A76_FearOfFreedomExists"
]
},
{
"key": "L_EmeraldApproach",
"title": "Emerald Therapeutics' Approach to Viral Infections",
"lemma": "Emerald Therapeutics aims to cure all viral infections by reprogramming cells into code-based machines to identify and destroy virus-containing cells.",
"lines": [
"assay1:137-144"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
]
},
{
"key": "L_EngineeringBiasAgainstDistribution",
"title": "Engineering Bias Against Distribution",
"lemma": "Engineers underestimate the problem of distribution and sometimes ignore it entirely because they wish it didn't exist.",
"lines": [
"assay7:129-131",
"assay7:134-168"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Distribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A3_DistributionImportanceIsUndervalued",
"A9_EngineersUnderestimateSales"
]
},
{
"key": "L_EnergyStorageProblem",
"title": "Energy Storage Problem",
"lemma": "The main problem with energy is the variability of production costs and the difficulty of effectively storing power produced off-peak.",
"lines": [
"assay10:50-53"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_PastVisionsNotAchieved"
]
},
{
"key": "L_EquityAlignmentTool",
"title": "Equity as Alignment Tool",
"lemma": "Equity is the classic alignment tool in tech startups because it is the thing that everybody has in common and benefits from an increased share price.",
"lines": [
"assay5:128-133"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Equity"
],
"assumptionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_EquityMotivation",
"title": "Equity Motivation in Hiring",
"lemma": "Candidates who prioritize equity and understand their percentage ownership are generally better hires than those focused solely on salary.",
"lines": [
"assay15:278-289"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A24_EngineersShouldPrioritizeEquity",
"A25_BestHiresPrioritizeEquity",
"A26_BestHiresUnderstandEquityAsOwnership"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ExplainingTechnologyClearlyReducesFear",
"title": "Explaining Technology Clearly Reduces Fear",
"lemma": "Clearly explaining the function and benefits of a technology ('this is x, this is what it does') can make it less scary and more acceptable to people who initially don't understand it.",
"lines": [
"assay1:167-172"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A21_LackOfUnderstandingDisbeliefAndFearHinderAcceptance",
"A31_LackOfUnderstandingMakesTechnologySeemLikeMagic",
"A32_ClearCommunicationCanIncreaseAcceptance"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ExplanationsForFounderTraitsInteract",
"title": "Explanations for Founder Traits Interact",
"lemma": "The four explanations for the inverted normal distribution of founder traits tend to feed into each other in complicated ways.",
"lines": [
"assay0:56-60"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_FounderDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ConnectionBetweenExtremityAndFounding"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ExternalWarCanCreateInternalPeace",
"title": "External War Can Create Internal Peace",
"lemma": "External war is a very effective way to forge internal peace.",
"lines": [
"assay11:207-208"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FailureInSVIsNotFatal",
"title": "Past Failure Not Fatal in SV",
"lemma": "Entrepreneurs can raise venture capital even if they have failed before, particularly in Silicon Valley where the stigma is less, and learning from failure can make them better.",
"lines": [
"assay6:450-455",
"assay6:459-460",
"assay6:464-466"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A79_FailureIsPossibleWithVC",
"A80_FailureStigmaMitigationInUS",
"A82_ReasonForFailureMatters",
"A83_FailureCanImproveEntrepreneurs"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FailureLearningValueFrom0to1Startups",
"title": "Learning Value from 0-to-1 Startup Failures",
"lemma": "Failure in a genuine 0 to 1 startup typically involves relatively low non-financial costs because the experience yields significant learning and personal development.",
"lines": [
"assay3:192-193"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_0to1Innovation"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"L_SignificantNonFinancialCostsOfStartupFailure"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FailureMode",
"title": "Failure Mode",
"lemma": "The best way to fail is to invert this recipe by starting big and shrinking...not being honest about objective market conditions is a sort of failure paradigm.",
"lines": [
"assay4:218-224"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A12_RationalityInMarketDefinition"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_BestBusinessRecipe"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FallingGenomicsPricesRemoveBarriers",
"title": "Falling Genomics Prices Remove Barriers to Development",
"lemma": "The substantial decrease in the cost of genomic sequencing eliminates key barriers and enables new developments in the field.",
"lines": [
"assay1:74-76"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A14_HighCostHinderedEarlyGenomicApplications",
"A15_FallingPricesRemoveBarriersToProgress"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FearOfTheUnknownExaggeratesRisks",
"title": "Fear of the Unknown Exaggerates Perceived Risks",
"lemma": "Fear of the unknown biases people to exaggerate the potential downsides of radical new technologies, making it hard to assess risks rationally.",
"lines": [
"assay1:140-144"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A21_FearOfUnknownExaggeratesRisks"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FightQuicklyAndDecisivelyIfNecessary",
"title": "Fight Quickly and Decisively if Necessary",
"lemma": "If you do have to fight a war, you must use overwhelming force and end it quickly.",
"lines": [
"assay11:188-192"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_ShockAndAwe"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FinanceAndIndefiniteOptimism",
"title": "Finance and Indefinite Optimism",
"lemma": "Finance encapsulates indeterminate thinking, operating on the belief that the stock market is fundamentally random but that you will make money.",
"lines": [
"assay12:133-135"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminateOptimism"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FinancePeakIndeterminacy",
"title": "Finance (Peak Indeterminacy)",
"lemma": "Finance encapsulates indeterminate thinking, and the peak of the finance bubble in 2007 will be seen as the peak of indeterminate thinking.",
"lines": [
"assay12:444-447"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FocusingOnSufferingAlleviationEffectsPromotesTranshumanism",
"title": "Focusing on Suffering Alleviation Effectively Promotes Transhumanism",
"lemma": "Highlighting the potential of transhumanist advancements to reduce suffering is often an effective way to make the ideas acceptable and appealing, as alleviating suffering is a widely accepted goal.",
"lines": [
"assay1:423-426"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A73_AppealingToHumanisticSideCanPromoteTranshumanism",
"A74_TranshumanismAimsToAlleviateSuffering"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ForceVCLearn",
"title": "Force VCs to Listen",
"lemma": "To have VCs listen, break through the clutter by forcing them to listen.",
"lines": [
"assay8:15-17"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Pitch"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_LowYield"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FounderAlignmentKey",
"title": "Key Importance of Founder Alignment",
"lemma": "The alignment of founders with each other is the factor that dominates all others in a startup.",
"lines": [
"assay5:54-56",
"assay5:69-70"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Equity"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FounderVestingNeeded",
"title": "Founders Need Vesting Schedules",
"lemma": "Founders need vesting schedules too, structured so part vests immediately and the rest over time, to prevent one founder quitting and leaving the other to work for two people.",
"lines": [
"assay5:189-196"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_FoundingCrucialness",
"title": "Crucialness of Foundings for Business",
"lemma": "Founders and founding moments are very important in determining what comes next for a given business. If you focus on the founding and get it right, you have a chance. If you don’t, you’ll be lucky at best, and probably not even that.",
"lines": [
"assay5:22-23",
"assay5:32-34"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FrontierAttractsGoodTalent",
"title": "Frontiers Attract Good Talent",
"lemma": "One way to tell whether you’ve found a good frontier is to answer the question 'Why should the 20th employee join your company?'",
"lines": [
"assay4:317-321"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A19_GreatAnswerAttractsTalent",
"A20_MonopolyNarrativeAttractsTalent",
"A22_CompetingWithGoogleForTalent"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_FrontiersAreBetterThanDisruption"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FrontiersAreBetterThanDisruption",
"title": "Frontiers Are Better Than Disruption",
"lemma": "Much better than to disrupt is to find a frontier and go for it.",
"lines": [
"assay4:283-286",
"assay4:290-291"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A7_LifeIsNotJustWar",
"A18_BestEntryTimeIsLate"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_DisruptionIsNotOptimal"
]
},
{
"key": "L_FullCommitmentRequired",
"title": "Necessity of Full Commitment",
"lemma": "People must either be fully in the company or not in it at all; being part-time, holding other jobs, or using consultants/advisors are misaligning red flags.",
"lines": [
"assay5:150-168"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_FundraisingForUniqueness",
"title": "Fundraising for Uniqueness",
"lemma": "Investors find it psychologically difficult to evaluate and invest in companies pursuing truly unique technologies or approaches, making fundraising challenging.",
"lines": [
"assay10:313-322"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A7_FundraisingForHardcoreTech"
]
},
{
"key": "L_GatekeeperChallenge",
"title": "Gatekeepers Limit Disruption",
"lemma": "Industries with powerful gatekeepers (like mobile platforms or industries intertwined with government/oligopolies) present significant challenges to disruption and require careful strategies (like seeking indirect paths) to navigate.",
"lines": [
"assay14:447-454",
"assay14:520-526",
"assay14:528-533",
"assay14:319-321",
"assay14:304-313"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A27_IndustrySpecificWaves",
"A33_MobileGatekeepers",
"A34_AppleBlockingExample",
"A15_IndirectPathPreferable",
"A14_SpotifyStrategy"
]
},
{
"key": "L_GenomicsAsComputationalField",
"title": "Genomics as a Computational Field",
"lemma": "Genomics is much more computational than traditional pharma or biotech, allowing for faster development cycles where Internet rules can apply.",
"lines": [
"assay1:115-119"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A5_ChallengesInTraditionalDrugDiscovery"
]
},
{
"key": "L_GeoengineeringDefiniteOptimism",
"title": "Geoengineering (Definite Optimism)",
"lemma": "Something like geoengineering would fall in the definite optimistic quadrant but is not in public debate.",
"lines": [
"assay12:385-388"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminateOptimism"
]
},
{
"key": "L_GettingOneChannelToWorkIsSuccess",
"title": "One Working Channel Sufficient for Success",
"lemma": "If you can get even a single distribution channel to work, you have a great business.",
"lines": [
"assay7:170-172"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Distribution"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_PowerLawAppliesToDistributionChannels",
"L_PoorDistributionPrimaryCauseOfFailure"
]
},
{
"key": "L_GoldilocksMarket",
"title": "Choosing the Initial Market Size",
"lemma": "The Goldilocks principle is key in choosing the initial market; that market should not be too small or too large. It should be just right.",
"lines": [
"assay4:248-251"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_WideMarketsCompetitive",
"A12_RationalityInMarketDefinition"
]
},
{
"key": "L_GoodFoundersAreIntrinsicallyMotivated",
"title": "Good Founders Solve Problems",
"lemma": "Good founders are typically driven by a desire to solve problems that frustrate them, which is a key indicator for VCs compared to purely financially motivated founders.",
"lines": [
"assay6:387-390"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A65_GreatFoundersAreIntrinsicallyMotivated"
]
},
{
"key": "L_GrandPlansDismissedToday",
"title": "Grand Plans Dismissed Today",
"lemma": "Today, ambitious plans like the Reber plan would be dismissed as lunacy, reflecting the shift away from believing in determinate futures.",
"lines": [
"assay12:254-257"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_GreatDistributionCanCreateMonopoly",
"title": "Great Distribution Can Create Monopoly",
"lemma": "Great distribution can give you a terminal monopoly, even if your product is undifferentiated.",
"lines": [
"assay7:77-78"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Distribution"
]
},
{
"key": "L_HackVCMind",
"title": "Hack the VC Mind",
"lemma": "Forcing VCs to listen requires hacking into the VC mind, addressing both rational and emotional sides.",
"lines": [
"assay8:32-35",
"assay8:40-42"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_VCsHaveCognitiveBiases"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_ForceVCLearn"
]
},
{
"key": "L_HighValueItemsRequirePeopleIntensiveSales",
"title": "High Value Sales Require People",
"lemma": "As the unit value of each sale goes up, there is necessarily a shift towards more people-intensive processes like utilizing salespeople and business development people.",
"lines": [
"assay7:51-54"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A13_DifferentProductsRequireDifferentDistributionApproaches"
]
},
{
"key": "L_HiringForRadicalCompanies",
"title": "Hiring for Radical Companies",
"lemma": "Radically different companies can attract specific types of talent (e.g., young engineers seeking responsibility, people from demanding industries like auto racing) though finding experienced industry veterans can be harder.",
"lines": [
"assay10:189-231"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A4_RecruitingTalentForUniqueVentures"
]
},
{
"key": "L_HistoricalUnforeseenProgressUnderminesLinearProjections",
"title": "Historical Unforeseen Progress Undermines Linear Projections",
"lemma": "Past examples of unforeseen breakthroughs (like the airplane) demonstrate the fallacy of projecting future progress solely based on linear extrapolations of current trends.",
"lines": [
"assay1:127-133"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_HistoriclPrecedentForUnforeseenProgress"
]
},
{
"key": "L_HumanGenomeDataInterpretationProblem",
"title": "Challenge of Interpreting Genome Data",
"lemma": "The biggest problem preventing the Human Genome Project from fully living up to the hype may be the lack of knowledge about what to do with the sequencing data.",
"lines": [
"assay1:103-106"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A2_BiotechExcitementPostComputerRevolution"
]
},
{
"key": "L_HumanSecretsUnderappreciated",
"title": "Human Secrets Are Underappreciated",
"lemma": "The importance of human secrets is probably underappreciated, and focusing on them may be worthwhile to gain insight into nature's secrets or for their own importance.",
"lines": [
"assay13:174-179"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_HumanSecret",
"Def_NaturalSecret",
"Def_Secret"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IdealCombinationsOfPeopleAndStructure",
"title": "Ideal Combinations of People and Structure",
"lemma": "The ideal combination for a company is high trust people with a structure that provides a high degree of alignment.",
"lines": [
"assay5:71-72"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IdentifyDistinctiveIdea",
"title": "Need a Distinctive, Big Idea",
"lemma": "If you don’t have a very distinctive, big idea—a prospective gold mine—you have nothing.",
"lines": [
"assay11:291-294"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IdentifyProblemPersonalities",
"title": "Identify Problem Personalities",
"lemma": "Avoid hiring individuals whose self-perception or past behavior indicates they will create internal conflict or avoid responsibility.",
"lines": [
"assay15:265-277"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A22_SteveJobsArchetypeProblematicInTeams",
"A23_PastBehaviorPredictsFuture"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IgnoringObstaclesDueToInevitabilityIsDangerous",
"title": "Belief in Inevitability Leads to Dangerous Complacency About Obstacles",
"lemma": "Assuming the singularity is inevitable encourages people to become complacent and ignore existing flawed systems and obstacles (like regulatory issues) that hinder technological progress.",
"lines": [
"assay1:212-214",
"assay1:214-215"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A35_FocusingSolelyOnInevitabilityLeadsToComplacency",
"A36_PerverseIncentivesThwartScientificProgress"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ImitativeCompetitionGrindsDownCompanies",
"title": "Imitative Competition Grinds Down Companies",
"lemma": "People become obsessed with their competitors. Companies converge on similarity. They grind each other down through increased competition. And everyone loses sight of the bigger picture.",
"lines": [
"assay11:97-100"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A4_ShakespeareanModelAppliedToTech"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ImportanceOfBeginnings",
"title": "Importance of Beginnings",
"lemma": "Beginnings of things are very important and qualitatively different.",
"lines": [
"assay5:22"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ImportanceOfStructureForPreventingInternalConflict",
"title": "Prevent Internal Conflict Through Structure",
"lemma": "The best way to prevent internal conflict is by making clear definitions and precise roles. At PayPal, this was achieved by redrawing the org chart and giving each person single criteria.",
"lines": [
"assay11:208-210"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A21_QuestioningTheBattleInternal"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ImportanceOfTiming",
"title": "Timing is Crucial",
"lemma": "Getting the timing right is one of the hardest but most critical factors for success, especially for entrepreneurs; being too early is a bigger problem than being incorrect on substance.",
"lines": [
"assay14:74-75",
"assay14:105",
"assay14:365-379",
"assay14:376-379",
"assay14:383-387",
"assay14:427-430",
"assay14:432-442"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A4[BadPredictionAnalysis]",
"A5[TimingEarly]",
"A19[VCvsEntrepreneurPerspective]",
"A20[FailureTrackingImportance]",
"A25[FuturePredictionPitfalls]",
"A26[MarketTimingAnalogy]"
]
},
{
"key": "L_InfeasibilityOf0To1InnovationInLargeEntities",
"title": "Infeasibility of 0-to-1 Innovation in Large Entities",
"lemma": "Developing new technology (0 to 1 progress) is generally not possible within existing large entities like big companies, governments, or non-profits.",
"lines": [
"assay3:156-157"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_0to1Innovation"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A15_InfeasibilityOf0to1InnovationInLargeEntities"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IndeterminacyAndDiversification",
"title": "Indeterminacy and Diversification",
"lemma": "If the future is fundamentally indeterminate, it leads to diversification.",
"lines": [
"assay12:48-51"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IndeterminacyAndLowInvestment",
"title": "Indeterminacy and Low Investment",
"lemma": "In an indeterminate world, the investment rate is much lower because it's not clear where people should put their money.",
"lines": [
"assay12:119-121"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective",
"Def_Investment"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IndeterminateFuturesIterative",
"title": "Indeterminate Futures Iterative",
"lemma": "Indefinite futures are inherently iterative and cannot be planned out.",
"lines": [
"assay12:423-424"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IndeterminateLeadsDiversification",
"title": "Indeterminacy and Diversification",
"lemma": "If the future is fundamentally indeterminate, it leads to diversification.",
"lines": [
"assay12:48-51"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IndeterminateLowInvestment",
"title": "Indeterminacy and Low Investment",
"lemma": "In an indeterminate world, the investment rate is much lower because it's not clear where people should put their money.",
"lines": [
"assay12:119-121"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective",
"Def_Investment"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IndeterminateOutlookLeadsToIterationAndProcessFocus",
"title": "Startup Obsession Indeterminacy",
"lemma": "Obsession with indeterminacy in the startup context leads to Phenomena like A/B testing, iterative processes, machine learning, no future thinking, and short time horizons.",
"lines": [
"assay12:425-429"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IndeterminateOutlookLeadsToStatistics",
"title": "Statistics and Indeterminacy",
"lemma": "The indeterminate future is one in which probability and statistics are the dominant modality for making sense of the world.",
"lines": [
"assay12:90-92"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IndeterminateOutlookLeadsToProcessFocus",
"title": "Process and Indeterminacy",
"lemma": "From an indeterminate perspective, people will think less substantively and more procedurally about navigating distributions.",
"lines": [
"assay12:97-100"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_InevitabilityIsColdComfort",
"title": "'Inevitability' Ignores Present Suffering",
"lemma": "The inevitability of a future outcome, such as the singularity or the defeat of aging, offers little comfort to those suffering or dying in the present.",
"lines": [
"assay1:191-192",
"assay1:194-198"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A34_IndividualActionMattersForTechnologyTiming",
"A35_AcceleratingAntiAgingScienceSavesLives"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IncrementalismInsufficientForLongTermLead",
"title": "Incrementalism Insufficient for Long-Term Lead",
"lemma": "Incremental improvements are unlikely to provide sufficient durability or a decisive lead over long time horizons, especially in competitive markets like cleantech where incremental progress is common across many players.",
"lines": [
"assay9:149-156",
"assay9:165-168"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A17_LimitationsOfIncrementalImprovementsForLongTimeHorizons",
"A18_PrevalenceOfIncrementalismInCleantech",
"A19_DifficultyOfDurabilityWithIncrementalProgress"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IntelligenceGrowthRate",
"title": "Intelligence Growth Rate",
"lemma": "Working at large, cushy companies often leads to a lower intellectual growth rate, costing individuals enormous long-term compounding returns on intelligence.",
"lines": [
"assay15:358-362"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A33_IntelligenceCompounds"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IntersectionOfHumanAndNaturalSecretsIsKey",
"title": "Intersection of Human and Natural Secrets is Key",
"lemma": "The most interesting and enlightening secrets are found at the intersection of natural secrets and human secrets, as human factors can conceal natural truths.",
"lines": [
"assay13:180-182"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_HumanSecret",
"Def_NaturalSecret",
"Def_Secret"
]
},
{
"key": "L_InvestmentDynamicQuestionable",
"title": "Investment Dynamic Questionable",
"lemma": "The circular investment dynamic where no one knows what to do with money is questionable and may not be self-sustaining.",
"lines": [
"assay12:126-129"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_CompaniesHoardCashLackOfIdeas"
]
},
{
"key": "L_InvestingFocusRiskManagement",
"title": "Investing Focus (Risk Management)",
"lemma": "Indeterminacy has reoriented people's ideas about investing from having ideas to managing risk.",
"lines": [
"assay12:162-169"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective",
"Def_Investment"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_InvestingWithIdeas"
]
},
{
"key": "L_InvestorsValueSecretPlansZero",
"title": "Investors Value Secret Plans Zero",
"lemma": "In an indefinite world, investors will value secret plans at zero.",
"lines": [
"assay12:409-412"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IterativeMLLaunchesExcuses",
"title": "Iteration/ML Excuses",
"lemma": "Iteration and machine learning are often excuses for not thinking about the future and having short time horizons.",
"lines": [
"assay12:430-434"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_IndeterminateOutlookLeadsToIterationAndProcessFocus"
]
},
{
"key": "L_IterativeRecipeForDisaster",
"title": "Iterative recipe for career disaster",
"lemma": "The iterative recipe of horizontal-diagonal jumps for careers is a recipe for disaster.",
"lines": [
"assay12:462-466"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
]
},
{
"key": "L_JobTitlesCanObscureActualRole",
"title": "Job Titles Can Obscure Sales Role",
"lemma": "Having a job title that's different from what you actually do is an important move in the game because people don't want to admit they are being sold to, indicating the process is not strictly rational.",
"lines": [
"assay7:66-70"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_SellingInvolvesNonRationalElements"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_SalesIsOftenHidden"
]
},
{
"key": "L_KeepPitchSimple",
"title": "Keep Pitch Simple",
"lemma": "Keeping your proposition simple makes VC analysis easier and reduces their cognitive load.",
"lines": [
"assay8:110-112",
"assay8:103-104"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_ExcessChoiceBurdens",
"A7_VCPerformanceDecreases"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_PitchEarlyInTheDay"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LACitiesPessimismIndeterminacy",
"title": "LA, Sao Paulo (Pessimism Indeterminacy)",
"lemma": "The outcomes in cities like Los Angeles and São Paulo suggest grounds to be pessimistic about indeterminacy in urban planning.",
"lines": [
"assay12:364-368"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LastDevelopmentCapture",
"title": "Entering at the Right Time for Capture",
"lemma": "you want to enter the field when you can make the last great development, after which the drawbridge goes up and you have permanent capture.",
"lines": [
"assay4:290-295"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A18_BestEntryTimeIsLate"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LeadershipAndManagementEffectiveness",
"title": "Effective Leadership is Crucial",
"lemma": "Strong leadership, particularly from product-oriented CEOs who understand management and distribution, is critical for building highly successful companies, and the ability to be a CEO can be learned.",
"lines": [
"assay14:537-541",
"assay14:543-549",
"assay14:555-561",
"assay14:569-577",
"assay14:586-588",
"assay14:614-615",
"assay14:620-621",
"assay14:617-620",
"assay14:626-630",
"assay14:670-671"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A35_BoardSelectionImportance",
"A36_BoardSizeEffectiveness",
"A37_StartupStruggle",
"A39_ProductPersonCEO",
"A40_SalespersonCEOEffect",
"A43_CEOIsLearnedSkill",
"A44_ManagingManagersKey",
"A45_NonProductCEORisk",
"A46_DilbertViewWrong",
"A51_PowerLawFirmOutcomes"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LearningPathsInEntrepreneurship",
"title": "Paths to Learning Entrepreneurship",
"lemma": "while starting a company directly out of school is possible, gaining experience by working in startups (especially well-run ones) or even dysfunctional large companies can provide valuable insights, though large, functional companies may paradoxically offer less direct startup learning.",
"lines": [
"assay14:646-652",
"assay14:662-668",
"assay14:657-661",
"assay14:669-673"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A48_StartupExperienceLearning",
"A49_BigCoExperienceLimited",
"A50_SubstanceOverProcess"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LeverageFearOfMissingOut",
"title": "Leverage Fear of Missing Out",
"lemma": "Given senior VCs' inertia, leveraging their loss aversion and competitiveness by creating fear of missing out (e.g., making the deal seem oversubscribed) can overcome their disinclination to invest.",
"lines": [
"assay8:121-126",
"assay8:137-140",
"assay8:141-143"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A9_SeniorVCsLackIncentive",
"A10_LossAverseVCs",
"A10_OversubscriptionAttractive"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LifeExtensionBadRap",
"title": "Life Extension Bad Rap",
"lemma": "Life extension gets a bad rap because people assume probabilities of death dominate and shouldn't be challenged.",
"lines": [
"assay12:369-373"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_BiasTowardsLuck"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LifeIsNotPurelyStatistical",
"title": "Life is a Series of Unique Events, Not Just Statistics",
"lemma": "Unlike timeless, probabilistic statistical processes, an individual life is a story comprised of unique, one-time events and decisions, reflecting its singular nature.",
"lines": [
"assay1:448-452"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_SingularityPersonal"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LiquidationPreferenceAlignsIncentives",
"title": "Liquidation Preference Aligns Incentives",
"lemma": "Liquidation preferences align incentives by ensuring investors get their money back before founders/employees upon winding down, thus incentivizing everyone to grow the business.",
"lines": [
"assay5:222-225"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_LiquidationPreference"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LongTermGoalsAreNecessaryForPrioritization",
"title": "Long-Term Goals Are Necessary for Prioritizing Trajectories",
"lemma": "Without a clear long-term objective, it is impossible to effectively evaluate and prioritize different technological paths or 'stepping-stones', preventing progress towards the ultimate goal.",
"lines": [
"assay1:370-372",
"assay1:377-378"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A63_LongTermGoalsHelpOrganizeTrajectories",
"A64_SightsShouldBeSetLargeForHumanitarianReasons"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LongTermValueCreation",
"title": "Long-Term Value Creation",
"lemma": "Undervalued long-term value creation means it's worthwhile to target engineers likely to stay with the company for a long time.",
"lines": [
"assay15:322-324"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A30_LongTermValueBuildsOverLongTermInEngineering"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LowReturnsFromNoIdeas",
"title": "Low Returns From No Ideas",
"lemma": "You get negative returns on investments when people run out of ideas.",
"lines": [
"assay12:166-169"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Investment"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_InvestingWithIdeas"
]
},
{
"key": "L_LuckControlPerceptionShift",
"title": "Perception of Luck Changed",
"lemma": "The perception of luck has shifted from something to be controlled to an external, uncontrollable force, influenced by figures like Malcolm Gladwell.",
"lines": [
"assay12:22-28"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_BiasTowardsLuck"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MandelbrotDistribution",
"title": "Mandelbrot Distribution",
"lemma": "VC returns follow a power law distribution.",
"lines": [
"assay6:77-78"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ManyWorldsReflectsIndeterminacy",
"title": "Many-Worlds reflects Indeterminacy",
"lemma": "The rise in popularity of the many-worlds interpretation reflects the shift to viewing the future as fundamentally indeterminate.",
"lines": [
"assay12:374-377"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MarketCreationSteps",
"title": "Steps to Create a Valuable Tech Company",
"lemma": "There are three steps to creating a truly valuable tech company. First, you want to find, create, or discover a new market. Second, you monopolize that market. Then you figure out how to expand that monopoly over time.",
"lines": [
"assay4:235-240",
"assay4:244-247"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Monopoly"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A12_RationalityInMarketDefinition",
"A2_MonopoliesAccumulateCapital"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MarketInefficienciesAreHiddenSecrets",
"title": "Market Inefficiencies as Hidden Secrets",
"lemma": "Decades of extraordinary market inefficiencies (like the dot-com bubble or the housing bubble) were hidden secrets that many people were not allowed or willing to discuss or believe.",
"lines": [
"assay13:236-240"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A2_SecretsAreImportant",
"A7_MarketIsNotPerfectlyEfficient"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MarketMisrepresentationConsequences",
"title": "Consequences of Market Misrepresentation",
"lemma": "Misrepresenting the relevant market size in cleantech and energy leads to either failure to protect against large competitors or falling into the trap of perfect competition.",
"lines": [
"assay9:137-140",
"assay9:256-259"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A13_CleantechMarketSize"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MarketSizeDistortion",
"title": "Incentive to Shrink Market Rhetorically",
"lemma": "your incentive is not to ask [relevant market] questions at all. Rather, your incentive is to rhetorically shrink the market.",
"lines": [
"assay4:130-135"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_WideMarketsCompetitive",
"A12_RationalityInMarketDefinition"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MarketSizeWrongMetric",
"title": "Large Market Size is Not Always Ideal",
"lemma": "The common idea that 'the bigger the market, the better' for starting a business is fundamentally wrong.",
"lines": [
"assay4:241-244"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MarketScars",
"title": "Market Event Scars",
"lemma": "Experiencing significant negative market events (like the dot com crash) can create deep psychological scars that influence future behavior and decision-making, making it hard to capitalize on new opportunities.",
"lines": [
"assay14:252-261",
"assay14:376-379",
"assay14:383-387",
"assay14:390-393"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A12_DotComCrashScarring",
"A20_FailureTrackingImportance",
"A21_MissedInvestmentCynicism"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MicroscopicAccidentsSolvableEarlier",
"title": "Microscopic Accidents Solvable Before Macro/Cosmic",
"lemma": "There is good reason to address microscopic accidents sooner than macroscopic or cosmic accidents in the pursuit of longevity.",
"lines": [
"assay1:70-72"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_MicroscopicAccidents",
"Def_MacroscopicAccidents",
"Def_CosmicAccidents"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MiddleSizedTribesAreEffectiveChangeAgents",
"title": "Middle-Sized 'Tribes' are Effective Agents of Major Change",
"lemma": "Truly transformative change often arises from cohesive groups of dozens to small hundreds of people ('tribes') that possess dependency and trust, rather than from individuals or large institutions.",
"lines": [
"assay1:257-268"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A42_MiddleScaleGroupsDriveChange"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MisalignmentSources",
"title": "Sources of Misalignment",
"lemma": "A founder must always be thinking about how and why things may get misaligned between ownership, possession, and control, and fix it where it does.",
"lines": [
"assay5:136-138"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Ownership",
"Def_Possession",
"Def_Control"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MonopoliesAreValuable",
"title": "Monopoly Businesses Are Valuable",
"lemma": "Real valuable businesses are monopoly businesses.",
"lines": [
"assay4:103-105",
"assay4:113-114"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Monopoly"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MonopoliesCanIncentivizeInnovationAndPlanning",
"title": "Monopoly Can Incentivize Innovation",
"lemma": "Contrary to some criticisms, monopoly can incentivize innovation by rewarding the creators of significantly better products.",
"lines": [
"assay4:199-202"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Monopoly"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MonopoliesCanIncentivizeInnovationAndPlanning",
"title": "Monopoly Facilitates Long-Term Planning and Financing",
"lemma": "Monopolistic firms can engage in better long-term planning and secure deeper project financing due to their perceived durability.",
"lines": [
"assay4:206-209"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Monopoly"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MonopoliesHaveDecisiveAdvantages",
"title": "Monopolies Possess Decisive Advantages",
"lemma": "Great tech companies often have decisive advantages (like economies of scale or low costs) making them monopoly-like.",
"lines": [
"assay4:188-203"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Monopoly",
"Def_GreatCompany"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MonopoloyNotAnException",
"title": "Monopoly a Valid Economic Paradigm",
"lemma": "Monopoly should be considered a valid economic paradigm in its own right, potentially more relevant than perfect competition for great tech companies.",
"lines": [
"assay4:115-117",
"assay4:120-121"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Monopoly",
"Def_PerfectCompetition",
"Def_GreatCompany"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A18_TextbookBiasTowardsCompetition"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MoneyDesiredIndefinite",
"title": "Money Desired (Indefinite)",
"lemma": "In an indefinite world, you will take the money and sell because money (optionality) is what you want.",
"lines": [
"assay12:393-398"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective",
"L_MoneyRoleIndefinite"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MoneyRoleDefinite",
"title": "Money's Role (Definite)",
"lemma": "In a definite future, money is simply a means to an end.",
"lines": [
"assay12:177-178"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MoneyRoleIndefinite",
"title": "Money's Role (Indefinite)",
"lemma": "Money plays a much more important role if the future is indefinite; pure optionality is valued.",
"lines": [
"assay12:173-177"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_MythicalHeroesExhibitExtremeTraits",
"title": "Mythical Heroes Exhibit Extreme Traits",
"lemma": "Myths about the founding of things are very common. Are mythical heroes actually any different? Did they have extreme traits? Develop them? Did they exaggerate themselves? Did others exaggerate their stories? [Implies yes]",
"lines": [
"assay0:131-136"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A35_MythologicalOverlap",
"A1_ConnectionBetweenExtremityAndFounding"
]
},
{
"key": "L_NecessityOfPlanning",
"title": "Necessity of Planning",
"lemma": "Since achieving mastery requires planning, having a detailed plan is key for success, especially since winning without one is rare.",
"lines": [
"assay9:24-27"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A2_PlannedIndeterminacyFailure",
"A3_PreferenceForDeterministicOutcomes"
]
},
{
"key": "L_NecessityOfAFullCommitment",
"title": "Necessity of Full Commitment",
"lemma": "People must either be fully in the company or not in it at all; being part-time, holding other jobs, or using consultants/advisors are misaligning red flags.",
"lines": [
"assay5:150-168"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_NeedCompoundingCompetitiveEdge",
"title": "Need a Compounding Competitive Edge",
"lemma": "People also underestimate how much of an edge you need. It really should be a compounding competitive edge. Marginal improvements are rarely decisive. You should plan to be 10x better.",
"lines": [
"assay11:295-301"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
],
"assumptionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_NeedCompoundingEdge",
"title": "Need a Compounding Edge",
"lemma": "People tend to underestimate how much of an edge you actually need. It should be a compounding edge, not a marginal one.",
"lines": [
"assay11:295-301"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
],
"assumptionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_NerdAthleteBalance",
"title": "Balance Between Creators and Fighters",
"lemma": "Optimal company composition balances non-zero-sum creators (nerds) with zero-sum fighters (athletes) to navigate environments effectively.",
"lines": [
"assay15:58-61",
"assay15:65-66"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A7_NerdsAreProblemSolvers",
"A8_AthletesAreFighters"
]
},
{
"key": "L_NetworkBenefit",
"title": "Building a Network is Valuable",
"lemma": "Building a network of smart people is key for learning and exchanging ideas, as it is impractical to read everything.",
"lines": [
"assay11:339-345"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A10_NetworkBenefits"
]
},
{
"key": "L_NoCurrentBubbleDueToNoBelief",
"title": "A Current Tech Bubble Is Unlikely Due to Lack of Widespread Intense Belief",
"lemma": "A tech bubble cannot currently exist because bubbles require widespread, intense belief that is untrue, and contemporary society lacks such widespread belief.",
"lines": [
"assay2:304-307"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Bubble"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A8_NoWidespreadBelief"
]
},
{
"key": "L_NoPointLearningLuck",
"title": "No Point Learning Randomness",
"lemma": "If startup success is all a matter of luck, there is no point in learning about startups.",
"lines": [
"assay12:35-36"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A2_AntiLuckBiasInClass"
]
},
{
"key": "L_NonMonetaryVCValue",
"title": "Non-Monetary VC Value is Real",
"lemma": "The non-monetary value-add provided by VCs (e.g., signaling, network, strategic counsel, trust) is substantial and not overplayed.",
"lines": [
"assay6:358-361",
"assay6:363-366",
"assay6:366-369"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A59_VCValueAddExists",
"A60_PersonalFitMatters",
"A61_VCNameAddsValue",
"A62_VCStrategicDirectionHelp"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ObservingTalent",
"title": "Observing Talent",
"lemma": "Assess candidates by observing what they show, not just what they say, to discern true talent.",
"lines": [
"assay15:202-203"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A17_TalentConcealsIt self"
]
},
{
"key": "L_OccupyAsSacrificeMechanism",
"title": "Occupy Movement as Modern Scapegoating",
"lemma": "The 99% vs. the 1% is the modern articulation of this classic scapegoating mechanism. It is all minus one versus the one. And it has to just be the one.",
"lines": [
"assay0:266-268"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_ModernSacrificePersistence"
]
},
{
"key": "L_OptimalBiotechApproach",
"title": "Potential for Computational Approaches in Biotech",
"lemma": "There is a significant opportunity to use computer technology to make biotech more determinative and reduce its dependence on luck, potentially transforming biological problems into computational problems.",
"lines": [
"assay1:103-106",
"assay1:112-115",
"assay1:115-119",
"assay1:150-151"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A2_BiotechExcitementPostComputerRevolution",
"A5_ChallengesInTraditionalDrugDiscovery",
"L_HumanGenomeDataInterpretationProblem"
]
},
{
"key": "L_OriginalPitchPowerStructure",
"title": "Pitching Power Structure",
"lemma": "The core act of pitching involves the founder taking on the burden of convincing the investor despite the investor's inherent skepticism.",
"lines": [
"assay8:27-30",
"assay8:31-31"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Pitch"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PatentSystem hindersProgress",
"title": "Patent System Hinders Progress",
"lemma": "The current state of the US software patent system, characterized by questionable patents, hinders innovation and can trap companies in costly licensing or litigation battles.",
"lines": [
"assay14:458-463",
"assay14:480-481",
"assay14:464-468",
"assay14:472-478",
"assay14:482-486",
"assay14:490-493"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A28_PatentSystemIssues",
"A29_PatentLitigationVsLicensing",
"A30_PatentLitigationCosts",
"A31_BigCoTerminalState",
"A32_PatentProblemsIndicateValue"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PayPalAsDeterminacyExample",
"title": "PayPal (Determinacy)",
"lemma": "PayPal was a determinate business; it was about getting a payment system to work.",
"lines": [
"assay12:378-380"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PessimismOfTheIntellectOptimismOfTheWill",
"title": "Pessimism of the Intellect, Optimism of the Will",
"lemma": "While intellectual honesty may lead to pessimism about current trends, one can maintain optimism of the will through action and pursuit of big things.",
"lines": [
"assay3:395-399"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_PastTechnologicalAcceleration",
"L_RecentDecelerationOfGeneralTechnologicalProgress"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PhilanthropyIsKeyForEarlyRadicalTechnology",
"title": "Philanthropy Is Key for Early Radical Technology",
"lemma": "Philanthropy is the current and likely dominant source of funding for early, radical technological development where traditional VC and public funding are insufficient.",
"lines": [
"assay1:277-279"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A44_PhilanthropicSupportIsKeyForEarlyRadicalTechnology"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PitchEarlyInTheDay",
"title": "Pitch Early in the Day",
"lemma": "Pitches early in the day are more effective than later ones because VCs have more meetings and become less receptive as the day progresses.",
"lines": [
"assay8:94-97"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A7_VCPerformanceDecreases"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PlannedDeterminacyWorks",
"title": "Planned Determinacy Works",
"lemma": "Planned determinacy, where you can figure out the future and control it, works.",
"lines": [
"assay9:13-13"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_PlannedIndeterminacyFailure",
"A3_PreferenceForDeterministicOutcomes"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PoliticalCircumstancesInfluenceProgress",
"title": "Political Circumstances Influence Progress",
"lemma": "Political contexts, such as funding being tied to military objectives (nuclear in the 1940s) or prevailing political correctness (environmentalism in cleantech), can significantly influence the direction and focus of technological investment.",
"lines": [
"assay9:276-277",
"assay9:333-334",
"assay9:231-234"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A34_ThoriumSecret",
"A35_GovernmentNuclearFocus",
"Def_CleantechInvestmentDrivers"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PoorDistributionPrimaryCauseOfFailure",
"title": "Poor Distribution is Primary Cause of Failure",
"lemma": "Not having a solid distribution strategy is frequently and powerfully the primary reason companies fail.",
"lines": [
"assay7:169-170"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Distribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A3_DistributionImportanceIsUndervalued"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PowerLawAppliesToDistributionChannels",
"title": "Power Law Applies to Distribution Channels",
"lemma": "The value generated by different distribution channels often follows a power law, with one or two channels accounting for most of the success.",
"lines": [
"assay7:172-174"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Distribution",
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PowerLawVCInvestment",
"title": "Power Law Describes VC Investment",
"lemma": "VC returns follow a power law distribution, with a small number of investments accounting for the vast majority of returns.",
"lines": [
"assay6:77-78"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A12_IneffectiveNaiveVCReturnModel",
"A13_VCsNeedReturnsOver100%"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PrerequisiteForDefiniteFuture",
"title": "Prerequisite for a Definite Future",
"lemma": "To lead a definite future, you need a secret and a plan, enabling deterministic control.",
"lines": [
"assay12:399-403"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective",
"Def_Secret"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PresentUndervaluesSecrets",
"title": "Present Undervalues Secrets",
"lemma": "The world today generally undervalues secrets due to various factors that discourage exploring or believing in them.",
"lines": [
"assay13:183-185"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A8_PeopleAreComfortableWithMythsAndMysteries",
"A9_NoRewardsForSecrets",
"A10_EveryoneIsNotSpecial",
"A11_EducationDiscouragesSecrets",
"A12_SecretsAreDangerous"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PreventingProblemCompanies",
"title": "Preventing Problem Companies",
"lemma": "The best way to avoid having problem portfolio companies is to avoid investing in them in the first place.",
"lines": [
"assay6:342-342"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A39_ProblemCompaniesTakeMoreTime"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PrimateAnalogy",
"title": "Primate Analogy for Company Structure",
"lemma": "Large companies (over 150 people) tend to devolve into political structures similar to primate tribes, driven by status concern.",
"lines": [
"assay0:360-364"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A9_PrimatePolitics"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ProgressIsNotInevitable",
"title": "Progress is Not Automatic or Inevitable",
"lemma": "Technological progress, even seemingly inevitable trajectories like those in computing, should not be taken for granted and requires conscious effort and potentially intervention to maintain or accelerate.",
"lines": [
"assay1:398-399",
"assay1:409-410",
"assay1:412",
"assay1:413",
"assay1:414-415"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A67_TrendsEventuallyHitLimits",
"A68_WeHaventHitFundamentalPhysicalLimitsYet",
"A69_ProgressDeceleratesAtSomePoint",
"A70_NecessityDrivesInvention",
"A71_ThereWillAlwaysBeNewExponentialCurves"
]
},
{
"key": "L_PublicKeySecrets",
"title": "Secrets Can Be Public",
"lemma": "It is possible for something to be public knowledge but still function as a secret if people are unwilling or afraid to explore it or incorporate it into their worldview.",
"lines": [
"assay13:225-228"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
]
},
{
"key": "L_QuestioningTheBattle",
"title": "Questioning the Battle",
"lemma": "We need to question whether we should be fighting in the first place... The most fundamental question is to what extent is there a real battle and to what extent are people self-distracted by fighting when there is no real conflict.",
"lines": [
"assay11:101-103",
"assay11:112-115"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay11"
]
},
{
"key": "L_RaiseSufficientCapital",
"title": "Raise Sufficient Capital",
"lemma": "You should raise enough capital in your first full fundraising round to last for 18 months to 2 years, ensuring you can meet milestones and avoid needing another round too soon.",
"lines": [
"assay5:197-205"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "L_RecentDecelerationOfGeneralTechnologicalProgress",
"title": "Recent Deceleration of General Technological Progress",
"lemma": "In many areas beyond computing, the rate of technological progress seems to have decelerated significantly since the late 1960s.",
"lines": [
"assay3:12-14",
"assay3:19-21"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_PastTechnologicalAcceleration"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ReformNeededForGoals",
"title": "Reform is Needed to Achieve Goals",
"lemma": "Achieving significant technological goals often requires reforming existing institutions and systems that hinder progress.",
"lines": [
"assay1:218-221"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A37_ReformIsNecessaryToRealizeGoals"
]
},
{
"key": "L_RentSeeking",
"title": "Rent Seeking",
"lemma": "the only way in which a company or business can make enormous amounts of money is by successfully engaging in something that looks like rent-seeking or monopolistic behavior.",
"lines": [
"assay4:121-123"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Monopoly"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A12_RationalityInMarketDefinition",
"A2_MonopoliesAccumulateCapital"
]
},
{
"key": "L_RetailSanityHideMadness",
"title": "Retail Sanity Hides Wholesale Madness",
"lemma": "The perceived 'retail level sanity' in the world, characterized by well-understood details and local effects, obscures a deeper 'wholesale level madness' where the big picture is unclear and the system is not rational.",
"lines": [
"assay3:2-3",
"assay3:10-11"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_RetailSanityWholesaleMadness"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_FutureIsUnclear"
]
},
{
"key": "L_RiskManagementParadigm",
"title": "Risk Management Paradigm",
"lemma": "The emphasis on risk management reflects a fundamental shift in mindset towards viewing the future as inherently indeterminate and probabilistic.",
"lines": [
"assay12:93-95"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_IndeterminateOutlookLeadsToStatistics"
]
},
{
"key": "L_RuleOfThumbPitchDeckContent",
"title": "Pitch Deck Content Rule of Thumb",
"lemma": "Aim for 100 pages or less and don’t include anything you consider to be confidential in a pitch deck sent ahead of time.",
"lines": [
"assay8:169-172"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Deck"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A13_ConfidentialityIsRare"
]
},
{
"key": "L_RuleOfThumbPitchDeckLength",
"title": "Pitch Deck Length Rule of Thumb",
"lemma": "For a 1-hour pitch, aim for 10-12 pages.",
"lines": [
"assay8:173-174"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Deck"
]
},
{
"key": "L_RuleOfThumbVCFundSize",
"title": "VC Fund Size Rule of Thumb",
"lemma": "VC funds should deploy less than $400-$500 million of capital for their investment strategy to work properly, avoiding the need to invest in too many companies.",
"lines": [
"assay6:161-165"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_CompetitionGoodForFounders"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SalesIsOftenHidden",
"title": "Sales is Often Hidden",
"lemma": "Sales roles are often given different names because people prefer not to think of themselves as being in sales or being sold to.",
"lines": [
"assay7:66-70",
"assay7:72-75"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Distribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_SellingInvolvesNonRationalElements",
"A10_SalesPeopleNecessary"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_JobTitlesCanObscureActualRole",
"L_SellingIsImportant"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ScapegoatingIneffectiveResolution",
"title": "Scapegoating is an Ineffective Resolution for Modern Societies",
"lemma": "The scapegoating mechanism, while historically effective in resolving ancient societal conflicts and establishing order, is problematic in modern democratic societies and does not offer a viable path forward.",
"lines": [
"assay0:269-271",
"assay0:277-279",
"assay0:280-282",
"assay0:283-332"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_ModernSacrificePersistence",
"A9_PrimatePolitics",
"A10_ScapegoatingInModernSociety"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SecretsAreUndervalued",
"title": "Secrets Are Undervalued",
"lemma": "The world today does not believe in secrets, meaning that discovering and acting on them faces various forms of resistance and discouragement.",
"lines": [
"assay13:183-185",
"assay13:186-188",
"assay13:191-194"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A8_PeopleAreComfortableWithMythsAndMysteries",
"A9_NoRewardsForSecrets",
"A10_EveryoneIsNotSpecial",
"A11_EducationDiscouragesSecrets",
"A12_SecretsAreDangerous",
"A13_EveryoneKnowsEverything"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SecretsCreateAdvantage",
"title": "Secrets Create Advantage",
"lemma": "The best companies have secrets.",
"lines": [
"assay13:8-8"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SecretsAreImportant",
"title": "Secrets Are Important",
"lemma": "Secrets are the most important things.",
"lines": [
"assay13:1-1"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SecretsAreUnpopularTruths",
"title": "Secrets Are Unpopular Truths",
"lemma": "A secret is fundamentally an unpopular or unconventional truth.",
"lines": [
"assay13:2-4",
"assay13:30-31"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_ImportantTruthQuestion",
"Def_ContrarianTruthQuestion",
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ImportantTruthCriterion"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SellingIsImportant",
"title": "Selling is Important",
"lemma": "Selling is an incredibly powerful business lever and should not be dismissed.",
"lines": [
"assay7:71-72"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Distribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_SalespeopleAreTalented",
"A10_SalesPeopleNecessary"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_SalesIsOftenHidden"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SellingRequiresPersuasion",
"title": "Selling Requires Storytelling and Persuasion",
"lemma": "Effective selling and pitching involve crafting a compelling narrative and utilizing the classical tools of persuasion (Ethos, Logos, Pathos), indicating that it is not purely a rational process.",
"lines": [
"assay8:154-158",
"assay8:161-164",
"assay8:32-35",
"assay8:40-42"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Ethos",
"Def_Logos",
"Def_Pathos",
"Def_Pitch"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_SellingInvolvesNonRationalElements",
"A1_VCsHaveCognitiveBiases"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_HackVCMind"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ShiftAwayFromDefiniteness",
"title": "Shift Away from Definiteness",
"lemma": "Overall, there seems to be a shift away from believing in a determinate future and being comfortable with definite plans.",
"lines": [
"assay12:441-443"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective",
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SignificantNonFinancialCostsOfStartupFailure",
"title": "Startup Failure Non-Financial Costs",
"lemma": "The non-financial costs of failure in businesses focused on 1 to n iteration or social value are high due to significant professional and reputational damage incurred within established systems and social structures.",
"lines": [
"assay3:186-191"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_1toNReplication"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SingleFounderMoreAmenableToScapegoating",
"title": "Single Founder Easier to Scapegoat",
"lemma": "Single founders, as isolated individuals, are more susceptible to being targeted by the scapegoating mechanism.",
"lines": [
"assay0:307-311"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay0"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_ModernsacrificePersistence"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SoftwareEatingTheWorldReflectsDominantTrend",
"title": "Software is Eating the World Hypothesis",
"lemma": "The hypothesis that software is increasingly dominating and transforming various industries ('Software is Eating the World') reflects a powerful ongoing trend.",
"lines": [
"assay14:265-267",
"assay14:270-271",
"assay14:276-282"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldWeak",
"Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldStrong",
"Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldStrongest"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SolyndraFailure",
"title": "Solyndra Failure",
"lemma": "Solyndra's failure was not simply an instance of bad luck but resulted from predictable errors, yet the aftermath focused on assigning blame rather than analyzing the technological and market failures.",
"lines": [
"assay9:228-230",
"assay9:233-236",
"assay9:27",
"assay9:154-156",
"assay9:165-172",
"assay9:175-179"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_CleantechInvestmentDrivers"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A28_SolyndraAftermathFocus",
"L_NecessecityOfPlanning"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_CleantechFailureReasons"
]
},
{
"key": "L_StartupBusinessModel",
"title": "Standard Startup Business Model",
"lemma": "The standard startup business model emphasizes rapid growth over profitability, aiming for liquidity events (IPO or acquisition) rather than long-term dividend generation.",
"lines": [
"assay5:95-98"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "L_StartupCulture",
"title": "Building a Strong Startup Culture",
"lemma": "A strong startup culture is non-zero sum within the company, encourages talent, long-term orientation, and generative spirit, and balances creative freedom with necessary rules.",
"lines": [
"assay15:17-21",
"assay15:35-38",
"assay15:58-61",
"assay15:113-118",
"assay15:121-122",
"assay15:134-136",
"assay15:138-140"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_GoodCompanyCulture",
"Def_NonZeroSumBehavior",
"def_talent",
"Def_LongTermOrientation",
"Def_GenerativeSpirit",
"Def_GoodCultureNeedsRules"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_CultureImportance",
"A20_CompetitionIsBad",
"A5_HardWorkIsNeeded",
"A7_NerdsAreProblemSolvers",
"A8_AthletesAreFighters",
"A12_TalentCannotBeCreated",
"A13_LongTermThinkingCannotBeCreated",
"A14_GenerativeSpiritCannotBeCreated",
"A11_TrustDissent",
"A13_RulesAreImportant"
]
},
{
"key": "L_StartupFoundingRequiresFocus",
"title": "Founding a Startup Requires Focus",
"lemma": "Starting a company requires founders to commit fully and avoid distractions like part-time involvement from others.",
"lines": [
"assay5:150-168"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": []
},
{
"key": "L_StartupFundingSources",
"title": "Startup Funding Sources",
"lemma": "Startups require external funding from sources like venture capital, angel investors, or potentially government/philanthropic programs, depending on the scale and nature of the venture.",
"lines": [
"assay6:14-16",
"assay6:17-25",
"assay1:274-277",
"assay1:277-279"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6",
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_LimitedPartners",
"Def_PortfolioCompanies",
"Def_VentureCapital"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_VentureCapitalNeedsLargeCapital",
"A43_RadicalTechnologyRequiresFundingNetworks",
"A44_PhilanthropicSupportIsKeyForEarlyRadicalTechnology"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_VCStructureIncentives"
]
},
{
"key": "L_StartupSuccessUniqueness",
"title": "Startup Success Is Unique",
"lemma": "Every startup is unique, making it difficult to apply general rules or learn solely from case studies of past successes.",
"lines": [
"assay3:82-83",
"assay3:85-86"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_SuccessAssessment1toN",
"Def_SuccessAssessment0to1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A8_Educations1ToNNature"
]
},
{
"key": "L_StartupsAreDestroyedInternally",
"title": "Startups Are Destroyed Internally",
"lemma": "Most startups are destroyed by internal conflicts and disagreements among the founding team, highlighting the importance of strong team dynamics and structure.",
"lines": [
"assay5:4",
"assay5:54-56",
"assay5:69-70",
"assay5:252-253"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_ThielsLaw",
"Def_Equity"
],
"assumptionRefs": [],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_FounderAlignmentKey",
"L_BoardImportanceCannotBeOverstated"
]
},
{
"key": "L_SubstanceOverProcess",
"title": "Prioritize Substance Over Process",
"lemma": "In tech and startup environments, prioritizing fundamental understanding of what works and what is valuable ('substance') is more important than focusing on established procedures or incremental optimization ('process').",
"lines": [
"assay12:97-100",
"assay12:425-429",
"assay14:669-673"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12",
"assay14"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_IndeterminateOutlookLeadsToProcessFocus",
"L_IndeterminateOutlookLeadsToIterationAndProcessFocus"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ThePitchRequiresLogosEthosPathos",
"title": "The Pitch Requires Logos, Ethos, and Pathos",
"lemma": "A compelling pitch or sales effort, beyond simply presenting facts (Logos), must also establish the credibility of the speaker (Ethos) and engage the audience's emotions (Pathos).",
"lines": [
"assay8:154-158"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Logos",
"Def_Ethos",
"Def_Pathos"
]
},
{
"key": "L_ThePresentUndervaluesSecrets",
"title": "The Present Undervalues Secrets",
"lemma": "Various factors in contemporary society, stemming from intellectual and social biases, lead to the underappreciation and discouragement of seeking out and believing in secrets.",
"lines": [
"assay13:183-185",
"assay13:186-188",
"assay13:191-194"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A8_PeopleAreComfortableWithMythsAndMysteries",
"A9_NoRewardsForSecrets",
"A10_EveryoneIsNotSpecial",
"A11_EducationDiscouragesSecrets",
"A12_SecretsAreDangerous",
"A13_EveryoneKnowsEverything"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TimingIsCrucial",
"title": "Timing Is Crucial",
"lemma": "Correct timing—specifically, being right on both the substance and the timing of market opportunity—is critical for startup success.",
"lines": [
"assay14:365-379"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A19_VCvsEntrepreneurPerspective"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_MarketScars"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TimingMattersForAction",
"title": "Timing Matters for Action",
"lemma": "In addition to understanding which technologies *could* work, the timing of when those technologies are developed is crucial for determining whether it is practical to work on them at a given moment.",
"lines": [
"assay1:354-355",
"assay1:365-367",
"assay1:370-372",
"assay1:377-378"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A61_TimingMattersForAction",
"A62_ThereAreSteppingStonesToGoals",
"A63_LongTermGoalsHelpOrganizeTrajectories",
"A64_SightsShouldBeSetLargeForHumanitarianReasons"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_LongTermGoalsAreNecessaryForPrioritization"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TooManyVCs",
"title": "Too Many VCs",
"lemma": "There may be too many VCs relative to the number of truly outstanding investment opportunities.",
"lines": [
"assay6:171-173"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TradeOffEquityVsSalary",
"title": "Equity vs. Salary Trade-off",
"lemma": "There is a trade-off between salary and equity when joining or starting a company; higher risk/uncertainty suggests prioritizing equity for potential upside, while lower risk/certainty might favor salary.",
"lines": [
"assay6:256-259"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A35_JoiningStartupIsInvestment"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TranshumanismChallengesStagnationBias",
"title": "Transhumanism Challenges Stagnation Bias",
"lemma": "Thinking about radical possibilities like transhumanism helps counter the societal and psychological biases that favor stagnation and discourage ambitious visions of the future.",
"lines": [
"assay1:294-298",
"assay1:301-303",
"assay1:303-304",
"assay1:309"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A47_PastPredictionsWereOftenWrong",
"A49_PredictingTheDistantFutureUsedToBeDifficult",
"A50_PredictingLate2020sIsComparativelyEasy",
"A51_Predicting2040IsUnusuallyHard",
"A52_ModernForecastsPrioritizeCredibilityOverAccuracy"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TranshumanismIsASecret",
"title": "Transhumanism is a Public Secret",
"lemma": "Transhumanism functions as a 'public key' secret because, while publicly discussed, its radical implications and potential achievability are often dismissed or not fully engaged with.",
"lines": [
"assay1:294-298"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Transhumanism",
"Def_Secret"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_PublicKeySecrets",
"L_TranshumanismChallengesStagnationBias"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TransparentEquityIsBest",
"title": "Transparent Equity is Best",
"lemma": "Transparency about equity distribution is crucial for aligning incentives and ensuring people understand their upside.",
"lines": [
"assay5:260-265"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Dilution",
"Def_Equity"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TruthAboutMarketsIsCrucial",
"title": "Finding the Truth About Markets is Crucial",
"lemma": "Asking and finding the truth about the relevant market, beyond standard competitive analysis metrics, is essential for building a valuable business.",
"lines": [
"assay4:143-144",
"assay4:160-165",
"assay4:171-173",
"assay4:176-178",
"assay4:184-186"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_LernerIndex",
"Def_HerfindahlHirschmanIndex",
"Def_MFirmConcentrationRatio"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_RationalityInMarketDefinition",
"A12_RationalityInMarketDefinition"
]
},
{
"key": "L_TuringTestLimits",
"title": "Turing Test Limitations",
"lemma": "The Turing Test is a problematic measure for AI because it focuses too narrowly on imitating human intelligence rather than creating something new or more intelligent.",
"lines": [
"assay14:75-77",
"assay14:79-81"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_TuringTest"
]
},
{
"key": "L_UndercapitalizedRaisesRedFlags",
"title": "Undercapitalization Raises Red Flags",
"lemma": "Raising too little capital in a funding round raises a major red flag for investors that either the company doesn't understand its needs or isn't confident enough for a larger raise.",
"lines": [
"assay5:205-208"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "L_UnderestimatedSales",
"title": "Sales is Underestimated and Misunderstood",
"lemma": "Sales is generally underestimated by technologists and viewed as less important than product or engineering; in reality, it is crucial and people are skilled at it.",
"lines": [
"assay7:129-131",
"assay15:294-295"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7",
"assay15"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A9_EngineersUnderestimateSales",
"A27_GoodSalespeopleAreSmart"
]
},
{
"key": "L_VCsAreConservative",
"title": "VCs Are Conservative",
"lemma": "VCs are financially and cognitively conservative and tend to follow established patterns and avoid truly contrarian investments, especially in markets they do not fully understand.",
"lines": [
"assay6:171-173",
"assay6:191-193",
"assay6:200-202",
"assay9:195-196"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6",
"assay9"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_CompetitionGoodForFounders",
"A20_VCsLookingForNextGoogle",
"A20_VCInvestmentDecisionTendencies",
"A23_VCReturnRequirement"
]
},
{
"key": "L_VCsSeekPowerLawReturns",
"title": "VCs Must Seek Power Law Returns",
"lemma": "Due to the nature of VC fund structures and the highly skewed distribution of outcomes, VCs must structure their investments to maximize the chance of capturing a few extremely large wins.",
"lines": [
"assay6:89-90",
"assay6:98-100",
"assay6:161-165",
"assay6:169-171",
"assay6:173-176",
"assay6:204-206"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A13_VCsNeedReturnsOver100%",
"A14_LimitedHighConvictionBusinesses",
"A20_CompetitionGoodForFounders",
"A23_VCsOftenUnprofitable"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_BestCompanyPaysForFund",
"L_ConcentrationIsPreferred",
"L_RuleOfThumbVCFundSize",
"L_TooManyVCs",
"L_VCIsHard"
]
},
{
"key": "L_VCStructureDoesntMotivateBigWins",
"title": "VC Structure Doesn't Naturally Motivate Big Wins",
"lemma": "The traditional 2-and-20 structure does not inherently push VCs to seek home run investments; rather, the power law of returns is the external reality forcing them to do so.",
"lines": [
"assay6:43-49"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_TwoAndTwenty",
"Def_ExponentialPower"
]
},
{
"key": "L_VCStructureIncentives",
"title": "VC Structure Incentives",
"lemma": "The standard 2-and-20 VC compensation model incentivizes VCs to manage funds and get a cut of large gains, though the exponential nature of returns forces the need for big wins.",
"lines": [
"assay6:27-37",
"assay6:43-49"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_TwoAndTwenty",
"Def_ManagementFee",
"Def_Carry",
"Def_LimitedPartners",
"Def_ExponentialPower"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_VCProfitStructure"
]
},
{
"key": "L_VastingProtectsFounders",
"title": "Vesting Protects Founders",
"lemma": "Vesting should be part of equity agreements to ensure founders and employees stay committed and earn their shares over time, protecting against early departures leaving others with disproportionate burdens.",
"lines": [
"assay5:172-176",
"assay5:189-196",
"assay5:209-212"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
]
},
{
"key": "L_VCIsHard",
"title": "VC Is Hard",
"lemma": "Successfully generating returns in venture capital is difficult, as evidenced by the power law distribution and the fact that most VC firms don't make money.",
"lines": [
"assay6:169-171",
"assay6:173-176",
"assay6:303-304",
"assay6:305-309"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_CompetitionGoodForFounders",
"A23_VCIndustryMayBeOverinvested",
"A47_VCFundedMortalityRate",
"A48_GrowthInvestmentStrategy"
]
},
{
"key": "L_VCsUnderestimated",
"title": "VCs Are Underestimated",
"lemma": "VCs are often underestimated, and the complexity of their work, particularly in navigating the power law distribution, is not fully appreciated by the public.",
"lines": [
"assay6:154-156",
"assay6:204-206",
"assay6:331-336"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A21_MiscalculationOfSkew"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_PowerLawVCInvestment",
"L_UnequalOutcomesCreateReputationalCosts"
]
},
{
"key": "L_WellDesignedProductsImportant",
"title": "Well-Designed Products Are Important",
"lemma": "While strong product alone is insufficient, investing in good design and user experience is increasingly crucial for market success and differentiation.",
"lines": [
"assay7:9-11",
"assay7:12-14",
"assay14:595-602",
"assay14:604-609"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7",
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ProductSuccessNotEnsuredByQualityAlone",
"A2_ConventionalProductThinkingIncorrect",
"A41_DesignImportance",
"A42_UniversityResearchSource"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_BestProductDoesNotAlwaysWin"
]
},
{
"key": "L_WhyNotAskWhy",
"title": "Why Not Ask 'Why'",
"lemma": "Because asking 'why' is a good way to discover a secret.",
"lines": [
"assay13:6-7"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A4_DiscoveringSecretsRequiresQuestioning",
"A5_ImpossibleTruthsAreMysteries",
"A6_SecretsAreSolvableProcesses"
]
},
{
"key": "L_WhyYou",
"title": "Why You?",
"lemma": "Given founders are more important than ideas, VCs must deeply assess the founding team's capabilities, history, and problem-solving skills.",
"lines": [
"assay6:416-417",
"assay6:417-420",
"assay6:422-423",
"assay6:425-425",
"assay6:427-429",
"assay6:434-439"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A70_FoundersMatterMoreThanIdeas",
"A71_IdeasIndicateFounderThinking",
"A72_RelentlesslyResourcefulIsKey",
"A73_RareProblemSolvers",
"A74_FocusOnFoundingTeam",
"A75_FounderChoicesRevealCharacter",
"A76_HedgehogsBetterThanFoxes"
]
},
{
"key": "L_WisdomFrom90sCycles",
"title": "Wisdom From 90s Tech Cycle",
"lemma": "Key takeaways from the 1998-2002 boom/bust cycle include the importance of profitability, having a lasting product, valuing teams, and understanding distribution.",
"lines": [
"assay2:215-216",
"assay2:220-221",
"assay2:221-223",
"assay2:226-229"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay2"
]
},
{
"key": "L_WorldBecomingMorePowerLaw",
"title": "The World Is Becoming More Power Law Shaped",
"lemma": "The increasing interconnectedness and efficiency of the world are causing more outcomes to follow a power law distribution, amplifying the importance of hitting a few big wins.",
"lines": [
"assay6:243-247",
"assay6:250-255",
"assay6:289-292"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution",
"Def_DownRound"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A32_WorldIncreasinglyTakesPowerLawShape",
"A34_FasterGrowthPotentialExists",
"A33_FractalPowerLaw",
"A41_DownRoundsDamageRelationships",
"A42_HugeValuationRisk"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_FractalPowerLaw",
"L_HugeValuationRiskWithNotSmartMoney",
"L_DownRoundsAreBad"
]
},
{
"key": "L_WorldOfAtomsLessAttractive",
"title": "World of Atoms Less Attractive",
"lemma": "Industries dealing primarily with atoms (e.g., energy storage, manufacturing, transportation) present challenges due to high fixed costs, difficulty moving quickly, and regulatory burdens.",
"lines": [
"assay10:34-47",
"assay10:50-53",
"assay10:55-58",
"assay10:59-63"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay10"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A2_AtomWorldChallenges"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_EnergyStorageProblem",
"L_SpaceFlightStagnation",
"L_BatteryLimitations"
]
},
{
"key": "L_YouAreNotLotteryTicket",
"title": "You Are Not a Lottery Ticket",
"lemma": "Even if startup outcomes are highly skewed, this does not mean your individual choice or effort to start a company is random; you have agency to decide if you are trying to create a 0 to 1 company.",
"lines": [
"assay3:86-90"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_0to1Innovation"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A9_AgencyIn0to1Innovation"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_StartupSuccessUniqueness"
]
},
{
"key": "L_YouNeedChampion",
"title": "You Need a Champion Inside the Firm",
"lemma": "Due to the internal dynamics of VC firms, convincing a particular partner and making them your advocate and champion is crucial for a pitch's success.",
"lines": [
"assay8:252-253",
"assay8:256-257",
"assay8:302-303"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A20_VCsPokeHoles",
"A22_PickingTheRightPartner",
"A23_VCRequiresChampion"
]
}
]
},
{
"catalogType": "conclusions",
"items": [
{
"key": "C1_AcceleratingAntiAgingScienceNeeded",
"title": "Accelerating Anti-Aging Science is Necessary",
"conclusion": "Given the cost of delayed progress and the moral imperative to alleviate suffering, accelerating anti-aging science should be a high priority.",
"lines": [
"assay1:191-192",
"assay1:194-198"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A34_IndividualActionMattersForTechnologyTiming",
"A35_AcceleratingAntiAgingScienceSavesLives"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_InevitabilityIsColdComfort"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_AvoidNonYCIncubators",
"title": "Avoid Non-Y Combinator Incubators",
"conclusion": "Entrepreneurs should avoid non-Y Combinator incubators, as they signal potential issues.",
"lines": [
"assay6:409-414"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A68_YCombinatorSelectivity",
"A69_NonYCombinatorIncubatorSignal"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_FocusOnMicroscopicThreatsSooner",
"title": "Focus on Microscopic Threats Sooner",
"conclusion": "Efforts aimed at increasing longevity should prioritize mitigating microscopic accidents in the near term, as they appear more tractable than larger-scale threats.",
"lines": [
"assay1:70-72"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_MicroscopicAccidents",
"Def_MacroscopicAccidents",
"Def_CosmicAccidents"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_MicroscopicAccidentsSolvableEarlier"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_OnlyFundTransformativeTechnologies",
"title": "Invest Only in Transformative Technologies",
"conclusion": "Given the history of cleantech failures and the inherent difficulties in this sector, investors should only fund companies poised for genuinely disruptive, non-incremental breakthroughs.",
"lines": [
"assay9:213-214",
"assay9:215-222",
"assay9:228-230",
"assay9:260-261",
"assay9:265-268",
"assay9:270-271",
"assay9:310-312",
"assay9:330-334",
"assay9:231-234"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_CleantechInvestmentDrivers"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A18_PrevalenceOfIncrementalismInCleantech",
"A26_DistinctionBetweenInspirationAndIncrementalImprovement",
"A27_DifficultOfComplexCoordinationInCleantech",
"A43_NecessityOfABigBreakthrough",
"A5_EnergyProductionNotNormallyDistributed",
"A6_powerLawDistribution",
"A34_ThoriumSecret",
"A35_GovernmentNuclearFocus"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_CritiqueOfCleantechInnovationApproach",
"L_DeterminateOptimismSense",
"L_PoliticalCircumstancesInfluenceProgress"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_PitchEarlyInTheDayForSuccess",
"title": "Pitch Early in the Day for Better Results",
"conclusion": "Maximizing pitch success involves scheduling meetings early in the day when VCs' cognitive resources are less depleted.",
"lines": [
"assay8:94-97",
"assay8:103-104"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A7_VCPerformanceDecreases"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_PitchEarlyInTheDay",
"L_KeepPitchSimple"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_PitchingIsSales",
"title": "Pitching IS Sales",
"conclusion": "Founders must recognize that pitching to VCs is fundamentally a sales process and approach it as such.",
"lines": [
"assay8:27-30",
"assay8:31-31",
"assay8:154-158",
"assay8:161-164",
"assay8:32-35",
"assay8:40-42"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Ethos",
"Def_Logos",
"Def_Pathos",
"Def_Pitch"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A6_SellingInvolvesNonRationalElements",
"A1_VCsHaveCognitiveBiases"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_OriginalPitchPowerStructure",
"L_SellingRequiresPersuasion",
"L_HackVCMind"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_PursueAmbitiousGoals",
"title": "Pursue Ambitious Goals",
"conclusion": "Individuals should dare to pursue ambitious, '0 to 1' goals, knowing that even attempting the difficult can yield significant non-financial rewards.",
"lines": [
"assay3:192-193"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_0to1Innovation"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_FailureLearningValueFrom0to1Innovation"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_SeekRadicalIdeas",
"title": "Seek Radical Ideas",
"conclusion": "To create something truly valuable, seek out and act on radical ideas that challenge conventional thinking and have the potential for significant, non-incremental returns.",
"lines": [
"assay14:223-224",
"assay14:365-379",
"assay14:376-379",
"assay14:383-387",
"assay14:390-393",
"assay14:427-430",
"assay14:432-442"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_AIUnderexploredContrarian",
"A19_VCvsEntrepreneurPerspective",
"A20_FailureTrackingImportance",
"A21_MissedInvestmentCynicism",
"A20_MistakesInFuturePrediction",
"A25_TimingFuturePredictionPitfalls"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_MarketScars",
"L_TimingIsCrucial"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_StructuredApproachForSecrets",
"title": "A Structured Approach to Secrets Yields Opportunities",
"conclusion": "By systematically exploring unpopular truths (secrets), particularly at the intersection of nature and human behavior, individuals can discover significant economic opportunities.",
"lines": [
"assay13:14-16",
"assay13:6-7",
"assay13:160-165",
"assay13:174-179",
"assay13:180-182"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret",
"def_mystery",
"Def_HumanSecret",
"Def_NaturalSecret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A5_ImpossibleTruthsAreMysteries",
"A6_SecretsAreSolvableProcesses",
"A4_DiscoveringSecretsRequiresQuestioning",
"A1_ImportantTruthCriterion",
"A2_SecretsAreImportant"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_EconomicSuccessRequiresFindingSecrets",
"L_WhyNotAskWhy",
"L_DifficultyInFindingSecretsDoesNotMeanAbsence",
"L_HumanSecretsUnderappreciated",
"L_IntersectionOfHumanAndNaturalSecretsIsKey"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_UnderstandDistribution",
"title": "Understand Distribution",
"conclusion": "Entrepreneurs must prioritize and understand distribution (sales and marketing) as much as product development to ensure market success.",
"lines": [
"assay7:10-14",
"assay7:169-170",
"assay7:170-172",
"assay7:51-54",
"assay7:77-78",
"assay7:129-131",
"assay7:134-168",
"assay7:172-174"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay7"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Distribution",
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ProductSuccessNotEnsuredByQualityAlone",
"A2_ConventionalProductThinkingIncorrect",
"A3_DistributionImportanceIsUndervalued",
"A13_DifferentProductsRequireDifferentDistributionApproaches",
"A9_EngineersUnderestimateSales"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_BestProductDoesNotAlwaysWin",
"L_PoorDistributionPrimaryCauseOfFailure",
"L_GettingOneChannelToWorkIsSuccess",
"L_HighValueItemsRequirePeopleIntensiveSales",
"L_GreatDistributionCanCreateMonopoly",
"L_EngineeringBiasAgainstDistribution",
"L_PowerLawAppliesToDistributionChannels"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_FocusOnBuildingMonopoly",
"title": "Focus on Building a Monopoly",
"conclusion": "To create a valuable business, focus on creating a monopoly in a specific market and defending it, rather than striving for perfect competition.",
"lines": [
"assay4:4-5",
"assay4:16-20",
"assay4:103-105",
"assay4:113-114",
"assay4:115-117",
"assay4:120-121",
"assay4:121-123",
"assay4:130-135",
"assay4:140-141",
"assay4:141-143",
"assay4:143-144",
"assay4:160-165",
"assay4:171-173",
"assay4:176-178",
"assay4:184-186",
"assay4:188-203",
"assay4:199-202",
"assay4:206-209",
"assay4:211-217",
"assay4:218-224",
"assay4:235-240",
"assay4:244-247",
"assay4:241-244",
"assay4:248-251",
"assay4:283-286",
"assay4:290-291",
"assay4:290-295",
"assay4:317-321"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PerfectCompetition",
"Def_Monopoly",
"Def_LastingPermanent",
"Def_LernerIndex",
"Def_HerfindahlHirschmanIndex",
"Def_MFirmConcentrationRatio",
"Def_Brand",
"Def_ScaleCostAdvantages",
"Def_NetworkEffects",
"Def_ProprietaryTechnology"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_CapitalismVersusCompetition",
"A2_MonopoliesAccumulateCapital",
"A3_PerfectCompetitionPreventsProfit",
"A4_CompetitionIsDeepRootedBias",
"A18_TextbookBiasTowardsCompetition",
"A12_RationalityInMarketDefinition",
"A11_WideMarketsCompetitive",
"A16_BuildingABrandCreatesMonopoly",
"A15_DurabilityRequiredForLongTermValue",
"A7_LifeIsNotJustWar",
"A18_BestEntryTimeIsLate",
"A19_GreatAnswerAttractsTalent",
"A20_MonopolyNarrativeAttractsTalent",
"A22_CompetingWithGoogleForTalent"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_CompetitionIsADisservice",
"L_MonopoliesAreValuable",
"L_MonopoloyNotAnException",
"L_RentSeeking",
"L_MarketSizeDistortion",
"L_TruthAboutMarketsIsCrucial",
"L_MonopoliesHaveDecisiveAdvantages",
"L_MonopoliesCanIncentivizeInnovationAndPlanning",
"L_BestBusinessRecipe",
"L_FailureMode",
"L_MarketCreationSteps",
"L_MarketSizeWrongMetric",
"L_GoldilocksMarket",
"L_FrontiersAreBetterThanDisruption",
"L_LastDevelopmentCapture",
"L_FrontierAttractsGoodTalent"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_PrioritizeBuildingATech",
"title": "Prioritize Building a Tech/Monopoly",
"conclusion": "Invest in building something genuinely new that creates a temporary monopoly, rather than just doing 1 to n iteration or seeking quick exits.",
"lines": [
"assay4:11",
"assay4:2",
"assay4:4-5",
"assay4:16-20"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay4"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Technology",
"Def_PerfectCompetition",
"Def_Monopoly",
"Def_GreatCompany"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_CapitalismVersusCompetition",
"A2_MonopoliesAccumulateCapital",
"A3_PerfectCompetitionPreventsProfit"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_CompetitionIsADisservice"
]
},
{
"key": "C1_SeekAndTellSecrets",
"title": "Seek and Share Secrets",
"conclusion": "Actively seek out unpopular truths ('secrets') and be willing to discuss and share them, as they are the foundation for significant innovation and rethinking the world.",
"lines": [
"assay13:1-1",
"assay13:2-4",
"assay13:30-31",
"assay13:6-7",
"assay13:14-16",
"assay13:160-165",
"assay13:174-179",
"assay13:180-182",
"assay13:183-185",
"assay13:186-188",
"assay13:191-194"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret",
"Def_ImportantTruthQuestion",
"Def_ContrarianTruthQuestion",
"def_mystery",
"Def_HumanSecret",
"Def_NaturalSecret"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_ImportantTruthCriterion",
"A2_SecretsAreImportant",
"A4_DiscoveringSecretsRequiresQuestioning",
"A5_ImpossibleTruthsAreMysteries",
"A6_SecretsAreSolvableProcesses",
"A8_PeopleAreComfortableWithMythsAndMysteries",
"A9_NoRewardsForSecrets",
"A10_EveryoneIsNotSpecial",
"A11_EducationDiscouragesSecrets",
"A12_SecretsAreDangerous",
"A13_EveryoneKnowsEverything"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_SecretsAreImportant",
"L_SecretsAreUnpopularTruths",
"L_WhyNotAskWhy",
"L_EconomicSuccessRequiresFindingSecrets",
"L_DifficultyInFindingSecretsDoesNotMeanAbsence",
"L_HumanSecretsUnderappreciated",
"L_IntersectionOfHumanAndNaturalSecretsIsKey",
"L_ThePresentUndervaluesSecrets"
]
},
{
"key": "C2_BuildCompaniesWithPlansSecrets",
"title": "Build Companies With Plans and Secrets",
"conclusion": "In a world that undervalues secrets and plans, the opportunity exists to build valuable companies by creating and executing a definite plan based on an important secret.",
"lines": [
"assay12:399-403",
"assay12:409-412",
"assay12:413-416",
"assay12:417-421",
"assay12:458-460"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective",
"Def_Secret",
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_PrerequisiteForDefiniteFuture",
"L_InvestorsValueSecretPlansZero",
"L_CompanyWithPlanUndervalued",
"L_AbilityToExecuteImportant",
"L_AlwaysFormDefinitePlan"
]
},
{
"key": "C2_CounterIndeterminacyBias",
"title": "Counter Determinacy Bias",
"conclusion": "Be contrarian and think in definite ways, even if the world is moving in an indefinite direction.",
"lines": [
"assay12:468-469"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_DeterminatePerspective",
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective"
]
},
{
"key": "C2_LookForSecretsInUnderappreciatedAreas",
"title": "Look for Secrets in Underestimated Areas",
"conclusion": "The best opportunities for discovering valuable secrets lie in fields or areas that are currently underestimated, uncomfortable, or not widely explored.",
"lines": [
"assay13:160-165",
"assay13:174-179",
"assay13:180-182",
"assay13:183-185",
"assay13:186-188",
"assay13:191-194",
"assay13:225-228",
"assay13:236-240"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay13"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Secret",
"Def_HumanSecret",
"Def_NaturalSecret"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_DifficultyInFindingSecretsDoesNotMeanAbsence",
"L_HumanSecretsUnderappreciated",
"L_IntersectionOfHumanAndNaturalSecretsIsKey",
"L_ThePresentUndervaluesSecrets",
"L_PublicKeySecrets",
"L_MarketInefficienciesAreHiddenSecrets"
]
},
{
"key": "C2_NeedForDefiniteFuture",
"title": "Need for a Definite Future",
"conclusion": "We need to find our way back to a world with a definite future to enable meaningful progress and impact.",
"lines": [
"assay12:48-51",
"assay12:51-53",
"assay12:118-119",
"assay12:119-121",
"assay12:126-129",
"assay12:162-169",
"assay12:173-177",
"assay12:177-178"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay12"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_IndeterminatePerspective",
"Def_DeterminatePerspective",
"Def_Investment"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A11_CompaniesHoardCashLackOfIdeas",
"A6_InvestingWithIdeas"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_IndeterminacyAndDiversification",
"L_DeterminateLeadsConviction",
"L_DeterminateHighInvestment",
"L_IndeterminacyAndLowInvestment",
"L_InvestmentDynamicQuestionable",
"L_LowReturnsFromNoIdeas",
"L_InvestingFocusRiskManagement",
"L_MoneyRoleIndefinite",
"L_MoneyRoleDefinite"
]
},
{
"key": "C2_OptimizeForPowerLawReturns",
"title": "Optimize for Power Law Returns",
"conclusion": "Given that VC returns follow a power law, investors should structure their portfolios to ensure they participate meaningfully in companies with the potential for extraordinarily high returns, even if it means being concentrated.",
"lines": [
"assay6:89-90",
"assay6:98-100",
"assay6:204-206"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_PowerLawDistribution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A13_VCsNeedReturnsOver100%",
"A14_LimitedHighConvictionBusinesses"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_BestCompanyPaysForFund",
"L_ConcentrationIsPreferred",
"L_VCsUnderestimated"
]
},
{
"key": "C2_PitchWellToWinVC",
"title": "Pitch Well to Win VC",
"conclusion": "Mastering the art of pitching, by connecting with VCs on both rational and emotional levels and making the process easy for them, is essential for securing funding.",
"lines": [
"assay8:15-17",
"assay8:32-35",
"assay8:40-42",
"assay8:94-97",
"assay8:103-104",
"assay8:110-112",
"assay8:121-126",
"assay8:137-140",
"assay8:141-143",
"assay8:150-152",
"assay8:165-168",
"assay8:169-172",
"assay8:173-174",
"assay8:214-215",
"assay8:252-253",
"assay8:256-257",
"assay8:284-287",
"assay8:302-303",
"assay8:329-331",
"assay8:339-343",
"assay8:348-351",
"assay8:355-356"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay8"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_Pitch",
"Def_Deck",
"Def_DataRoom"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_LowYield",
"A1_VCsHaveCognitiveBiases",
"A7_VCPerformanceDecreases",
"A11_ExcessChoiceBurdens",
"A9_SeniorVCsLackIncentive",
"A10_LossAverseVCs",
"A10_OversubscriptionAttractive",
"A12_VCsHaveCognitiveBiases",
"A21_NdAPerceivedAsAmateur",
"A20_VCsPokeHoles",
"A22_PickingTheRightPartner",
"A23_VCRequiresChampion",
"A24_MostVCsNotGood",
"A26_TermsTypicallyDontMatter",
"A25_VCsInvestInCompaniesNotIdeas",
"A27_VCValueAddMajorityCapital"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_ForceVCLearn",
"L_HackVCMind",
"L_PitchEarlyInTheDay",
"L_KeepPitchSimple",
"L_LeverageFearOfMissingOut",
"L_RuleOfThumbPitchDeckContent",
"L_RuleOfThumbPitchDeckLength",
"L_YouNeedChampion",
"L_AvoidAskingForNDA",
"L_ProvideDataRoom",
"L_MostTermsDontMatter",
"L_BeACompanyBeforePitching",
"L_VCValueIsCapital"
]
},
{
"key": "C2_ReformAndActionNecessary",
"title": "Reform and Action Are Necessary for Achieving Goals",
"conclusion": "To achieve ambitious technological goals and realize a definite future, individuals must actively engage in reforming existing systems and institutions that hinder progress, rather than passively assuming inevitability.",
"lines": [
"assay1:212-214",
"assay1:214-215",
"assay1:218-221"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A35_FocusingSolelyOnInevitabilityLeadsToComplacency",
"A36_PerverseIncentivesThwartScientificProgress",
"A37_ReformIsNecessaryToRealizeGoals"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_IgnoringObstaclesDueToInevitabilityIsDangerous",
"L_ReformNeededForGoals"
]
},
{
"key": "C2_StartupsMostEffectiveFor0to1",
"title": "Startups Are Most Effective for 0-to-1 Innovation",
"conclusion": "Startups are the most effective organizational structure for driving 0 to 1 innovation, as they can operate with a definitive plan and are not burdened by the costs and complexities of large entities.",
"lines": [
"assay3:156-157",
"assay3:186-191",
"assay3:192-193"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay3"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_0to1Innovation",
"Def_1toNReplication"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A15_InfeasibilityOf0to1InnovationInLargeEntities"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_InfeasibilityOf0To1InnovationInLargeEntities",
"L_SignificantNonFinancialCostsOfStartupFailure",
"L_FailureLearningValueFrom0to1 Innovation"
]
},
{
"key": "C3_BuildStrongCultureAndTeam",
"title": "Build a Strong Culture and Team",
"conclusion": "Building a great company requires cultivating a strong company culture that attracts and retains talented, long-term-oriented individuals who share the mission, while ensuring tight alignment through structure and clear roles.",
"lines": [
"assay15:17-21",
"assay15:22-27",
"assay15:35-38",
"assay15:58-61",
"assay15:65-66",
"assay15:113-118",
"assay15:119-122",
"assay15:124-128",
"assay15:134-136",
"assay15:138-140",
"assay15:146-152",
"assay15:202-203",
"assay15:204-205",
"assay15:234-237",
"assay15:247-249",
"assay15:260-265",
"assay15:265-277",
"assay15:278-289",
"assay15:294-295",
"assay15:312-314"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay15"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_GoodCompanyCulture",
"Def_NonZeroSumBehavior",
"def_talent",
"Def_LongTermOrientation",
"Def_GenerativeSpirit",
"Def_GoodCultureNeedsRules"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_CultureImportance",
"A2_CultsDontWork",
"A3_ConsultingFirmsLackCulture",
"A20_CompetitionIsBad",
"A5_HardWorkIsNeeded",
"A7_NerdsAreProblemSolvers",
"A8_AthletesAreFighters",
"A12_TalentCannotBeCreated",
"A13_LongTermThinkingCannotBeCreated",
"A14_GenerativeSpiritCannotBeCreated",
"A11_TrustDissent",
"A14_BadHiringDecisionsAreProblematic",
"A15_FiringIsLikeWar",
"A13_RulesAreImportant",
"A16_SpeedIsTheOnlyWeaponForStartups",
"A17_TalentConcealsItself",
"A20_QuestioningTheBattle",
"A22_SteveJobsArchetypeProblematicInTeams",
"A23_PastBehaviorPredictsFuture",
"A24_EngineersShouldPrioritizeEquity",
"A25_BestHiresPrioritizeEquity",
"A26_BestHiresUnderstandEquityAsOwnership",
"A27_GoodSalespeopleAreSmart",
"A29_EngineersCannotSustainLongTermEffortForMoneyAlone"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_CultureSpectrum",
"L_CultureNuanceBeyondHomogeneityHeterogeneity",
"L_AvoidZeroSum",
"L_NerdAthleteBalance",
"L_StartupCulture",
"L_CultureCannotCreateCoreProperties",
"L_BadHiringIsCostly",
"L_EarlyTeamNonDiversity",
"L_ObservingTalent",
"L_AvoidSoftness",
"L_DisagreementsMustSurface",
"L_DiversityOfOpinion",
"L_IdentifyProblemPersonalities",
"L_EquityMotivation",
"L_UnderestimatedSales",
"L_CompensationOverTheLongTerm"
]
},
{
"key": "C3_EmbraceSingularityAndTakeAction",
"title": "Embrace the Possibility of the Singularity and Take Action",
"conclusion": "Embracing the possibility of accelerating returns and the Singularity is vital for overcoming intellectual and social inertia and motivating concentrated effort towards impactful technological development.",
"lines": [
"assay1:301-303",
"assay1:303-304",
"assay1:309",
"assay1:315-316",
"assay1:321-326",
"assay1:328-329",
"assay1:333-335",
"assay1:335-337",
"assay1:340",
"assay1:341-342",
"assay1:346-350"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_TechnologicalSingularity"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A50_PredictingLate2020sIsComparativelyEasy",
"A51_Predicting2040IsUnusuallyHard",
"A52_ModernForecastsPrioritizeCredibilityOverAccuracy",
"A53_DisagreementDoesNotInvalidateTheProject",
"A54_FutureWillBeAMixOfScienceAndEngineering",
"A55_ScienceIsMoreImportantThanEngineeringForFuture",
"A56_KnowledgeAggregationIsAProblem",
"A57_ComputersCanImproveKnowledgeOrganization",
"A58_MooreLawWillLikelyContinue",
"A59_SoftwareEngineeringProgressIsLinear",
"A60_LinearGrowthCanLeadToExponentialGrowth"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_TranshumanismChallengesStagnationBias",
"L_LinearGrowthEnablesExponentialGrowth",
"L_ComputersCanImproveKnowledgeAggregation"
]
},
{
"key": "C3_SolveHardSciences",
"title": "Solve the Hard Sciences",
"conclusion": "Focus on making progress in the difficult scientific and engineering challenges related to the physical world ('atoms') by applying computational approaches and learning from past successes and failures.",
"lines": [
"assay1:103-106",
"assay1:112-115",
"assay1:115-119",
"assay1:150-151",
"assay10:34-47",
"assay10:50-53",
"assay10:55-58",
"assay10:59-63",
"assay10:166-168",
"assay10:178-178",
"assay10:189-231",
"assay10:254-288",
"assay10:288-301",
"assay10:313-322"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1",
"assay10"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_CostPlusAccounting",
"Def_RetrofutureGoal"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A2_BiotechExcitementPostComputerRevolution",
"A5_ChallengesInTraditionalDrugDiscovery",
"A2_AtomWorldChallenges",
"A3_RevisitingUnderexploredAreas",
"A4_RecruitingTalentForUnique Ventures",
"A25_SellingToLargeEntities",
"A7_FundraisingForHardcoreTech"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_HumanGenomeDataInterpretationProblem",
"L_OptimalBiotechApproach",
"L_GenomicsAsComputationalField",
"L_WorldOfAtomsLessAttractive",
"L_EnergyStorageProblem",
"L_SpaceFlightStagnation",
"L_BatteryLimitations",
"L_AirCompressionStorage",
"L_HiringForRadicalCompanies",
"L_DistributionStrategy",
"L_FundraisingForUniqueness"
]
},
{
"key": "C3_StructureCompanyForAlignment",
"title": "Structure the Company for Alignment",
"conclusion": "Structure the company from the start to ensure clear alignment of incentives and roles, especially among founders and key personnel.",
"lines": [
"assay5:2-3",
"assay5:3-4",
"assay5:22",
"assay5:32-34",
"assay5:54-56",
"assay5:69-70",
"assay5:71-72",
"assay5:102-108",
"assay5:128-133",
"assay5:136-138",
"assay5:150-168",
"assay5:172-176",
"assay5:189-196",
"assay5:209-212",
"assay5:222-225",
"assay5:252-253",
"assay5:260-265"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay5"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_ThielsLaw",
"Def_Equity",
"Def_Ownership",
"Def_Possession",
"Def_Control",
"Def_LiquidationPreference",
"Def_Dilution"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_RulesForStartingBusiness",
"A43_BoardImportance"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_StartupsAreDestroyedInternally",
"L_FoundingCrucialness",
"L_FounderAlignmentKey",
"L_IdealCombinationsOfPeopleAndStructure",
"L_DelawareCCorpAdvantage",
"L_EquityAlignmentTool",
"L_MisalignmentSources",
"L_NecessityOfAFullCommitment",
"L_VastingProtectsFounders",
"L_FounderVestingNeeded",
"L_LiquidationPreferenceAlignsIncentives",
"L_BoardImportanceCannotBeOverstated",
"L_TransparentEquityIsBest"
]
},
{
"key": "C3_UnderstandVCGame",
"title": "Understand the VC Game",
"conclusion": "Entrepreneurs raising venture capital must understand that VCs are managing funds according to a power law distribution and need to make big bets, and structure their pitch and company to align with these incentives while being mindful of long-term relationships.",
"lines": [
"assay6:14-16",
"assay6:17-25",
"assay6:27-37",
"assay6:43-49",
"assay6:77-78",
"assay6:89-90",
"assay6:98-100",
"assay6:110-111",
"assay6:113-114",
"assay6:121-122",
"assay6:126-126",
"assay6:129-133",
"assay6:149-154",
"assay6:161-165",
"assay6:169-171",
"assay6:173-176",
"assay6:204-206",
"assay6:231-234",
"assay6:238-240",
"assay6:243-247",
"assay6:250-255",
"assay6:256-259",
"assay6:260-261",
"assay6:262-265",
"assay6:265-267",
"assay6:271-273",
"assay6:281-281",
"assay6:281-284",
"assay6:284-287",
"assay6:289-292",
"assay6:292-295",
"assay6:297-299",
"assay6:299-301",
"assay6:303-304",
"assay6:305-309",
"assay6:313-314",
"assay6:318-320",
"assay6:322-324",
"assay6:326-328",
"assay6:328-329",
"assay6:331-336",
"assay6:338-339",
"assay6:342-342",
"assay6:343-345",
"assay6:346-348",
"assay6:348-350",
"assay6:358-358",
"assay6:359-361",
"assay6:363-366",
"assay6:366-369",
"assay6:375-377",
"assay6:383-384",
"assay6:387-390",
"assay6:392-394",
"assay6:395-396",
"assay6:406-407",
"assay6:409-414",
"assay6:416-416",
"assay6:416-417",
"assay6:417-420",
"assay6:422-423",
"assay6:425-425",
"assay6:427-429",
"assay6:434-439",
"assay6:442-442",
"assay6:448-448",
"assay6:450-450",
"assay6:452-455",
"assay6:457-457",
"assay6:459-460",
"assay6:464-466",
"assay6:468-468",
"assay6:471-474",
"assay6:475-479"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay6"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_LimitedPartners",
"Def_PortfolioCompanies",
"Def_VentureCapital",
"Def_TwoAndTwenty",
"Def_ManagementFee",
"Def_Carry",
"Def_ExponentialPower",
"Def_PowerLawDistribution",
"Def_UpRound",
"Def_FlatRound",
"Def_DownRound",
"Def_ProRataParticipationRights",
"Def_WinnerTakeAllDynamic",
"Def_SmartVC",
"Def_JCurve"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A1_VentureCapitalNeedsLargeCapital",
"A1_VCProfitStructure",
"A13_VCsNeedReturnsOver100%",
"A14_LimitedHighConvictionBusinesses",
"A16_BacktestingHeuristic",
"A18_FlatRoundsIndicatingProblems",
"A21_MiscalculationOfSkew",
"A20_CompetitionGoodForFounders",
"A23_VCIndustryMayBeOverinvested",
"A30_UnderestimationOfRapidGrowth",
"A31_RealValueIsFutureOriented",
"A32_WorldIncreasinglyTakesPowerLawShape",
"A34_FasterGrowthPotentialExists",
"A33_FractalPowerLaw",
"A41_DownRoundsDamageRelationships",
"A42_HugeValuationRisk",
"A45_AngelMarketSaturation",
"A46_AngelInvestorPowerLawAwareness",
"A47_VCFundedMortalityRate",
"A48_GrowthInvestmentStrategy",
"A49_50MLimitIsNonsense",
"A50_LowAspirationsAreFine(WithoutVC)",
"A51_SellingPlanIsARedFlag",
"A52_SidewaysCompaniesWasteVCBoardSeats",
"A53_BoardSeatCapacityIsLimited",
"A54_UnequalOutcomesCreateReputationalCosts",
"A39_ProblemCompaniesTakeMoreTime",
"A56_BootstrappingVsVC",
"A57_VCBorrowAgainstFutureGrowth",
"A58_VCHelpsWithSpeed",
"A59_VCValueAddExists",
"A60_PersonalFitMatters",
"A61_VCNameAddsValue",
"A62_VCStrategicDirectionHelp",
"A63_InnovationStillExists",
"A64_VCsDontDriveCompanyActivity",
"A65_GreatFoundersAreIntrinsicallyMotivated",
"A66_GreatFoundersAreHesitantToSell",
"A67_MoneyMotivationVsPowerLawSuccess",
"A68_YCombinatorSelectivity",
"A69_NonYCombinatorIncubatorSignal",
"A70_FoundersMatterMoreThanIdeas",
"A71_IdeasIndicateFounderThinking",
"A72_RelentlesslyResourcefulIsKey",
"A73_RareProblemSolvers",
"A74_FocusOnFoundingTeam",
"A75_FounderChoicesRevealCharacter",
"A76_HedgehogsBetterThanFoxes",
"A77_IdentifyingSmartVCs",
"A44_VCsNeedToRaiseMoney",
"A79_FailureIsPossibleWithVC",
"A80_FailureStigmaMitigationInUS",
"A81_FailureStillHasCosts",
"A82_ReasonForFailureMatters",
"A83_FailureCanImproveEntrepreneurs",
"A84_FundingTeamsOfOne",
"A85_OptimalFoundingTeamSize",
"A86_CoFoundersHelpInPowerLawWorld"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_StartupFundingSources",
"L_VCStructureIncentives",
"L_VCStructureDoesntMotivateBigWins",
"L_PowerLawVCInvestment",
"L_BestCompanyPaysForFund",
"L_ConcentrationIsPreferred",
"L_AvoidFlatOrDown",
"L_MissedInvestmentHeuristics",
"L_VCsAreConservative",
"L_VCIsHard",
"L_UndervaluedFutureValue",
"L_WorldBecomingMorePowerLaw",
"L_TradeOffEquityVsSalary",
"L_SuccessfulVCRequiresPowerLaw",
"L_KnowYourVC",
"L_ImportanceOfNonMonetaryVCValue",
"L_FoundersDriveSuccess",
"L_FoundersHesitantToSell",
"L_MoneyIsPoorPredictor",
"L_FoundersMatterMost",
"L_FailureInSVIsNotFatal",
"L_CoFoundersCanMagnifyOutcomes"
]
},
{
"key": "C4_BuildSoftwareBasedCompanies",
"title": "Build Software-Based Companies",
"conclusion": "Given that software is increasingly 'eating the world' and faces fewer historical limitations than hardware/atom-based industries, building companies with software at their core is a promising path for the future.",
"lines": [
"assay1:340",
"assay1:341-342",
"assay1:346-350",
"assay1:354-355",
"assay14:265-267",
"assay14:270-271",
"assay14:276-282",
"assay14:565-566",
"assay14:569-577",
"assay14:586-588",
"assay14:595-602",
"assay14:604-609"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1",
"assay14"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldWeak",
"Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldStrong",
"Def_SoftwareEatingTheWorldStrongest"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A58_MooreLawWillLikelyContinue",
"A59_SoftwareEngineeringProgressIsLinear",
"A60_LinearGrowthCanLeadToExponentialGrowth",
"A61_TimingMattersForAction",
"A38_SoftwareCoreNecessary",
"A39_ProductPersonCEO",
"A40_SalespersonCEOEffect",
"A41_DesignImportance",
"A42_UniversityResearchSource"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_TranshumanismChallengesStagnationBias",
"L_SoftwareEatingTheWorldReflectsDominantTrend",
"L_LeadershipAndManagementEffectiveness",
"L_WellDesignedProductsImportant"
]
},
{
"key": "C4_FocusOnAreasWhereProgressIsPossible",
"title": "Focus on Areas Where Progress is Possible",
"conclusion": "Concentrate efforts on fields where genuine scientific and engineering breakthroughs are possible and necessary, rather than being constrained by markets or political biases.",
"lines": [
"assay9:259-259",
"assay9:260-261",
"assay9:261-264",
"assay9:268-268",
"assay9:271-271",
"assay9:333-334",
"assay9:357-358",
"assay9:361-362",
"assay9:362-363",
"assay9:363-364",
"assay9:367-367",
"assay9:370-370",
"assay9:379-381",
"assay9:381-382",
"assay9:122-128",
"assay9:228-230",
"assay9:233-236"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay9"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_TechnologyDefinition"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A30_ImpossibilityOfDeterminatePessimismInEnergy",
"A31_InadequacyOfConservationAlone",
"A32_ImpactOfDevelopingWorldConsumption",
"A33_ITOptimizationPotential",
"A34_ThoriumSecret",
"A37_GovernmentEntanglementWithCleantech",
"A38_GovernmentSalesDifficulty",
"A39_GovernmentSubsidyDifficulty",
"A40_GovernmentReplacementDifficulty",
"A41_USBudgetDeficit",
"A42_FutureGovernmentFunds",
"A43_NecessityOfABigBreakthrough"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_ChallengesFromMarketEvolution",
"L_DeterminateOptimismSense",
"L_SolyndraFailure"
]
},
{
"key": "C5_LearnFromHistory",
"title": "Learn to Apply History",
"conclusion": "Study and apply historical lessons, both broadly and from specific company experiences, to gain valuable insights for navigating the future and making informed decisions.",
"lines": [
"assay1:395-396",
"assay14:646-652",
"assay14:662-668",
"assay14:657-661",
"assay14:669-673"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1",
"assay14"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A66_AppliedHistoryIsUnderrated",
"A48_StartupExperienceLearning",
"A49_BigCoExperienceLimited",
"A50_SubstanceOverProcess"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_LearningPathsInEntrepreneurship"
]
},
{
"key": "C5_ResistConformity",
"title": "Resist Conformity and Pursue Singularity",
"conclusion": "Despite societal pressures to conform and play it safe, individuals should resist conventional wisdom and pursue their own unique path and vision, recognizing the inherent singularity of their lives and the potential for new discoveries.",
"lines": [
"assay1:451-452",
"assay1:455",
"assay1:459",
"assay1:463-464",
"assay1:464-466",
"assay1:466-467",
"assay1:469-470"
],
"essayRefs": [
"assay1"
],
"definitionRefs": [
"Def_SingularityPersonal",
"Def_ZeroToOne"
],
"assumptionRefs": [
"A80_SocietalEncouragementIsTowardsConformity",
"A80_ConventionalWisdomIsWrong",
"A81_ManySecretsRemainToBeUncovered",
"A82_ThereAreOpportunitiesForDiscovery",
"A83_EveryMomentIsAnOpportunity",
"A84_SomeMomentsAreMoreAuspicious"
],
"lemmaRefs": [
"L_LifeIsNotPurelyStatistical",
"L_EveryNewThingIsSingular"
]
}
]
}
]
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