Inferring forward-looking beliefs from where US investors are placing high-conviction bets, with heavier weighting on June 2023 – June 2026.
US venture capital is making one giant, internally-consistent wager: that machine intelligence is about to become a cheap, abundant input to the whole economy — and that whoever owns the stack required to produce and deploy it (frontier models, compute, energy, the software that turns AI into labor, and eventually the robots that give it a body) captures the defining economic rents of the next decade. Almost every other 2023–2026 high-conviction theme — energy, defense/reindustrialization, robotics, even parts of biotech and fintech — is either a supporting bet on that thesis (power and chips for AI; physical embodiment of AI; AI-designed drugs) or a parallel structural bet that has survived the 2022–2023 correction on its own fundamentals (stablecoins