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What US Venture Capital Believes About the Future (June 2021 – June 2026)

Inferring forward-looking beliefs from where US investors are placing high-conviction bets, with heavier weighting on June 2023 – June 2026.


The one-sentence answer

US venture capital is making one giant, internally-consistent wager: that machine intelligence is about to become a cheap, abundant input to the whole economy — and that whoever owns the stack required to produce and deploy it (frontier models, compute, energy, the software that turns AI into labor, and eventually the robots that give it a body) captures the defining economic rents of the next decade. Almost every other 2023–2026 high-conviction theme — energy, defense/reindustrialization, robotics, even parts of biotech and fintech — is either a supporting bet on that thesis (power and chips for AI; physical embodiment of AI; AI-designed drugs) or a parallel structural bet that has survived the 2022–2023 correction on its own fundamentals (stablecoins

What China's Venture Capital Is Betting the Future Looks Like (June 2021 – June 2026)

A data-grounded reading of where Chinese investors are placing high-conviction early-to-growth-stage bets — and the forward-looking beliefs those bets imply. Weighted toward June 2023 – June 2026. Chinese-language sources prioritized; English used as cross-check. Compiled 2026-06-22.


1. The one-paragraph answer

By mid-2026, Chinese venture capital is no longer betting on consumer-internet business-model innovation (模式创新); that entire cluster has collapsed (some tracks down >95%). Capital has migrated, decisively and durably, into "hard technology" (硬科技) aligned with the state's "new quality productive forces" (新质生产力) doctrine. The dominant forward-looking belief embedded in the allocation is this: **the future will be defined by a contest for technological sovereignty — physical AI, domestic compute, and frontier infrastructure — that the state will underwrite and that China intends to win regardle

A Survey of SIGIR 2026: The Information Retrieval Landscape

Status: complete — 332 papers with preprints read and analyzed (Why/How/What/Limitations). Part I theme deep-dives are pending synthesis; Part II per-paper entries are generated below.

1. Scope & Method

Maps the research landscape of SIGIR 2026 (Melbourne, 20–24 July 2026) via its accepted papers.

  • Corpus: 668 accepted papers (program); 332 had a preprint online (mid-June 2026) and were downloaded + analyzed. The other 336 (no preprint yet) are in the Appendix.
  • Method: each PDF was read (first ~14 pages) and analyzed into Why (problem + example), How (solution), What (results), and Limitations, plus a taxonomy label. Per-paper data: papers//summary.json; index: run_log_full.csv.
@rankun203
rankun203 / config.schema.json
Last active June 24, 2026 09:12
config.schema.json for ase 2.0 config.yaml
{
"$defs": {
"AIOverviewConfig": {
"properties": {
"source": {
"default": "serpapi",
"description": "Default AI Overview source",
"title": "Source",
"type": "string"
},
@rankun203
rankun203 / setup-tailscale.sh
Last active April 3, 2025 10:45
Launch Tailscale (with sudo)
#!/bin/bash
# filepath: setup_tailscale.sh
# Function to check if a process is running
check_process() {
pgrep -x "$1" >/dev/null
return $?
}
# Function to install Tailscale
@rankun203
rankun203 / README.md
Last active December 11, 2024 00:34
Qualtrics count down timer control

Qualtrics count down timer control

Features

This script helps adding a global count down timer that:

  1. Counts from a pre-defined time down to 0.
  2. When it counts down to 0, automatically submit the survey.
  3. When clicking on Yes option on specific pages, extend the timer for another 10s.
@rankun203
rankun203 / pdf2docx2markdown.md
Last active December 7, 2023 10:06
PDF to DOCX to Markdown
title <img src="media/image1.png" style="width:1.1483in;height:2.4361in" /><img src="media/image2.png" style="width:8.26771in;height:8.01775in" />Victorian Carbon Farming Program Pilot

Project Guidelines for Grant Funding

Victorian Carbon Farming Program

North Central Catchment Management Authority Region Pilot

PROCESS-NAME,nsurlsessiond
DOMAIN-SUFFIX,mzstatic.com
syntax on
set noerrorbells
set shiftwidth=2
set expandtab
set smartindent
set nu
set nowrap
set smartcase
set noswapfile
@rankun203
rankun203 / edit-exif.js
Last active September 20, 2020 04:27
Exif Editing
const sh = require("shelljs");
const exiftool = require("exiftool-vendored").exiftool;
const folder =
"/Users/rankun203/Downloads/670 Claude Monet Paintings/670 Amazing Claude Monet Paintings [Up to 4500 Px]-1";
let files = [];
sh.ls(`${folder}/Pics/Monet Paintings/`).forEach((f) => files.push(f));
files = files.sort((a, b) => {