simtrolleyodds.py

from random import sample

deck = range(60)

# Rotom is 0-3
# Other basics are 4-12
# Trolley is 13
# FSS is 14-17
# Town Store is 18-21
# Nest is 22
# Ultra is 23

def main():
    mulligans = 0
    success = 0
    failure = 0
    for i in range(1000000):
        result = draw_hand()
        if result == "Mulligan":
            mulligans += 1
        elif result:
            success += 1
        else:
            failure += 1
    print("Mulligans: " + str(mulligans))
    print("Successes: " + str(success))
    print("Failures: " + str(failure))

    print("Successes / non-mulligans: " + str(success / (success + failure))) 
    

def draw_hand():
    cards = sample(deck, 14)
    opener = cards[:7]
    has_basic = False
    for c in opener:
        if c < 13:
            has_basic = True
    if not has_basic:
        return "Mulligan"

    prizes = cards[7:13]
    if 13 in prizes:
        return False
    turn_draw = cards[13]
    start_eight = opener + [turn_draw]
    if 13 in start_eight:
        return True
    has_rotom = False
    has_fss = False
    for c in start_eight:
        # Not checking if all 4 Rotom are prized
        if c < 4 or c == 22 or c == 23:
            has_rotom = True
        # Not checking if all 4 FSS are prized either
        if (c > 13 and c < 22):
            has_fss = True
    return has_rotom and has_fss

if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()